Experts spoke about the reasons for the record strengthening of the ruble

The ruble strengthened to a record high in three years amid a strong trade balance, high oil prices and a slowdown in imports. This was reported on May 18 by experts interviewed by Delovoy Peterburg.

According to Ilya Kuzminykh, a junior analyst at KIT Finance Broker's financial market analysis department, exporters are bringing more currency to the market due to high oil prices, while imports are declining due to tight monetary policy and cooling domestic demand.

"An additional factor was the pause in the operations of the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule from March to early May, when the market temporarily lost its planned buyer of foreign currency," Kuzminykh said.

Igor Vasilevsky, director of the Cifra Broker branch in St. Petersburg, also linked the strengthening of the ruble with a stronger trade balance in 2026. According to him, Brent is trading above $100 per barrel, and the discount on Russian oil has decreased.

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Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, added that the ruble is supported by expectations of a tougher policy of the Bank of Russia, including a possible reduction in the key rate or a pause.

At the same time, experts do not rule out a weakening of the ruble in the future. The reason may be a reduction in the key rate in June by 0.5 percentage points or an increase in the volume of currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance from June 5.

Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis department at Finam, noted that by the end of the year the ruble could weaken due to the passage of the peak in oil prices, a reduction in the key rate and a possible reduction in currency sales by the Central Bank in the second half of 2026.

As noted on May 13, the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market dropped below 73 rubles, amounting to 72.975 rubles (-1.11%). This happened for the first time since February 19, 2023. In turn, the euro exchange rate decreased by 1.34% to 85.45 rubles.