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- Risks are being inflicted: the United States and Israel are preparing for new attacks on Iran
Risks are being inflicted: the United States and Israel are preparing for new attacks on Iran
Tehran is able to withstand a new military operation by the United States and Israel and deliver a tangible retaliatory strike, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. There is practically no possibility of internal protests, and the Iranian missile potential has been restored. Earlier it became known that the United States and Israel are preparing to resume attacks on the Islamic Republic in the near future due to the lack of progress in negotiations. In Lebanon, the parties agreed to extend the truce for 45 days, but a return to hostilities is still possible here. A new escalation in the Middle East will inevitably lead to higher energy prices, so Washington may extend the exemptions from sanctions for oil from the Russian Federation, which expired on May 16.
Risks of renewed U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran
The conflict over Iran may resume with renewed vigor in the near future. The United States and Israel are actively preparing to launch strikes on the Islamic Republic again this week, The New York Times reported, citing sources. NBC News channel clarified that the White House has already come up with the name of the new operation — "Sledgehammer". US President Donald Trump said that Washington would achieve the capitulation of Tehran in this way.
— In military terms, we are about 70-75% done. We didn't finish every single thing. We'll come back and finish it," the American leader said.
According to the American media, the Pentagon is developing two scenarios for the continuation of the conflict. The United States plans to launch more aggressive strikes against Iran's military installations and infrastructure. Indirectly, Trump himself confirmed the development of such plans when he stated that the United States was able to destroy Iran's critical infrastructure "in two days."
Another scenario involves sending special forces units to search for nuclear materials located deep underground. For this purpose, about 5 thousand Marines and about 2 thousand paratroopers of the elite Air Force division were allegedly gathered. Washington makes no secret of the fact that it used the pause in hostilities to regroup and replenish supplies.
US President Donald Trump
The promise of Chinese Leader Xi Jinping not to supply military equipment to the Islamic Republic also gives the United States confidence in its abilities. Trump announced this following his visit to Beijing on May 14-15. Israel also does not rule out the resumption of military operations against Iran and is ready for this, said Defense Minister Israel Katz.
In the event of a renewed conflict with Iran, the United States will make significant adjustments to its combat strategy.: Instead of dispersed attacks on Iranian territory, the new plans will focus on the area of strategic waterways, primarily the Strait of Hormuz, Alisa Kazelko, a member of the Russian Export Control Association and Valdai expert, suggested in an interview with Izvestia.
"At the same time, a ground operation remains an extremely unlikely scenario: Washington clearly does not intend to repeat the expensive Middle East experience of the 2000s and therefore will prefer the use of air—sea tools that allow achieving strategic goals without a long-term military presence," she noted.
In April, Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed out to his American counterpart in a telephone conversation that a ground operation in Iran was unacceptable and dangerous. The Russian leader continues contacts with all parties to the conflict. On May 16, he spoke by phone with the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
Consequences of the renewed conflict in the Middle East
Iran is ready for any development of events, both to resume the war with the United States and to return to the negotiating table, said the country's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. On May 14, he met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in New Delhi, and a day earlier, Bishkek hosted a meeting between the two countries' Security Councils.
Tehran's confidence in its capabilities is based on the fact that it could retain up to 60% of its missile potential. This is reported by The Independent, citing sources in NATO. According to the newspaper, from 30 to 33 Iranian missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz have survived attacks by the United States and Israel and remain able to threaten global oil supplies. The Iranians still have a large number of mobile missile systems, and missile stocks allow them to fire on the Persian Gulf countries for a long time.
The Iranian leadership has also consolidated political forces within the country. The probability of some serious armed uprising against the Iranian leadership on the territory of the country itself, both on the national outskirts and in large cities, is practically zero today, Grigory Lukyanov, senior lecturer at the basic Department of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
— The Iranian side has carried out serious preparatory measures to restore its military might. A significant part of military installations has been restored, primarily missile bases in mountainous areas, whose entrances were blocked as a result of US and Israeli strikes in the early days of the war, the expert explained. — This makes it possible to bring back into operation an arsenal of missiles for attacking the military infrastructure of the United States and Israel, as well as the territories of neighboring states.
However, the resumption of the military operation will inevitably lead to an increase in oil prices. In April, its price exceeded $120 per barrel, which was the highest since 2022. To reduce the price, Washington allowed transactions with Russian oil that was already at sea in March, and the exceptions were extended in April. The license expired on May 16, but the United States may renew it again.
— The logic here is purely pragmatic: the escalation around Iran will inevitably inflate oil prices, and Washington will need compensating mechanisms to keep global supply at an acceptable level. The current de facto exclusion regime suits all key participants, and therefore its extension in the face of a new crisis looks not only likely, but also a politically convenient solution," Alisa Kazelko believes.
Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and special representative of the President of the Russian Federation for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, previously reported that these measures affected 200 million barrels of Russian oil. Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea have already started purchasing resources from the Russian Federation.
What are the positions of the United States and Iran?
The risks of a renewed military conflict are also growing due to the complex negotiation process. After the round in the Pakistani capital Islamabad in April, the parties did not meet again, but continue to exchange messages.
On May 13, Iran handed over to the United States a five-point plan according to which sanctions against Tehran should be lifted, compensation paid for damage from military strikes, and the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic established over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran believes that it is impossible to enter into new negotiations without the practical implementation of these points.
In response, Washington imposed its own five conditions on Tehran, the Fars news agency reported. In particular, the Americans refuse to pay any compensation for the damage caused during the bombing. In addition, according to the agency, the United States insists on exporting 400 kg of enriched uranium from Iran to the United States and that only one active nuclear facility will remain on the territory of the Islamic Republic. And "the issue of ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, must be resolved during negotiations."
The United States also insists on reducing Iran's missile potential, eliminating its ballistic programs and ending support for proxy groups in the region. In this regard, special attention is paid to Lebanon. The conflict between the Shiite Hezbollah movement and the Israeli army continues there. In April, it was possible to agree on a cessation of hostilities, and on May 15 it became known about the extension of the truce for 45 days with the mediation of the United States. However, even during the silence regime, both sides accused each other of violating the truce.
According to Grigory Lukyanov, the risk of escalation of the situation in Lebanon has decreased. The United States has enough influence to keep the situation under control. Israel's interest in escalation is currently limited to political processes within the Jewish state — the ruling coalition has proposed a bill to dissolve the Knesset (the country's parliament). New elections may be held in the fall.
"If the fighting is resumed at the initiative of the Israeli government, it will happen at the moment when it will give the greatest results to Benjamin Netanyahu and the extreme Orthodox right in the struggle for voters," the expert predicts.
Donald Trump doesn't have much time left before the midterm elections in November. Amid record-low ratings and fears of losing his majority in Congress, the US president hopes to end the conflict over Iran in order to present it to voters as a victory. Prolonged negotiations may force the White House to make another attempt to resolve the Iranian issue by force. However, it is unlikely to be successful — Iran has already proved its resilience, and is likely to force the United States to return to negotiations.
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