JPMorgan announced the possible end of the conflict in Ukraine according to the "Finnish scenario"

The end of the conflict in Ukraine may have several scenarios, the most likely of which is the so—called "Finnish scenario". This was announced on May 15 by the JPMorgan Center for Geopolitics.

According to JPMorgan experts, Ukraine could lose up to 20% of its territories by declaring neutrality and limiting the capabilities of its armed forces. Finland had a similar solution to the conflict in 1944.

"Under the current conditions, a negotiated settlement may take place as early as this year," the Center for Geopolitics predicted.

According to experts, this scenario may be influenced by other foreign policy factors, such as the war in Iran.

Last year, the "Georgian" scenario was considered the most likely outcome of the conflict, according to which Ukraine would experience a slowdown in economic growth and recovery in the absence of foreign troops and reliable security guarantees and a de facto refusal to join the European Union (EU) and NATO. At the moment, the probability of this scenario is 30%.

The change in the scenario is due to a significant reduction in US military support and the lack of guarantees from NATO countries on the deployment of their troops, according to JPMorgan.

At the same time, the issue of Ukraine's accession to the EU has become more clearly defined and specific — Ukraine is undergoing the standard process of joining the union.

The news is being updated