A place for strength: the US is looking for an opportunity to resume the war in Iran
The United States has completed its operation in Iran by 70-75%, Donald Trump said, promising to "return." According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, he has several ways to resume the conflict. The military operation may be called humanitarian or even simply renamed — instead of "Epic Fury" they are allegedly considering a "Sledgehammer". In addition, the United States has authorized the right to attack the enemy under the pretext of saving its citizens or allies. Meanwhile, negotiations with Tehran have reached a final impasse. The United States rejected Iran's 14-point peace plan. And Trump failed to win over Beijing. Xi Jinping will not interfere in the settlement, and the competition between the Chinese and Americans will only increase, political analysts are sure.
The United States may resume military operations in Iran
Negotiations between the United States and Iran have stalled. Washington rejected Tehran's 14-point peace plan, which the republic calls uncontested, according to a number of Iranian media. Its main provisions relate to the withdrawal of American troops, the lifting of sanctions, the unfreezing of assets, and the payment of compensation. And this is not counting the key disputes over the Iranian nuclear program and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
And Tehran is obviously hedging against a potential resumption of U.S. strikes. This week, the Parliament of the Islamic Republic announced that in the event of repeated attacks, they would discuss enriching uranium to 90%, that is, to the level of creating nuclear weapons. At the same time, they still do not want to openly provoke the United States in Iran. "We are still in the process of negotiations, but a deal can only be reached if our conditions are met," Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said.
On May 15, Donald Trump announced the completion of the operation in Iran by 70-75%, promising to "return and finish everything." At the same time, the 60-day period during which the US president can legally unleash conflicts has long expired. Now the US military is looking for a loophole to resume hostilities. According to media reports, the United States is going to rename the operation against Iran from "Epic Fury" to "Sledgehammer." Paradoxically, this would allow Trump to separate one operation from another without getting congressional approval for military action.
There are other ways to legalize the conflict with Iran, for example, to turn a military operation into a humanitarian one, Sergei Sudakov, a corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, told Izvestia.
— Two or three good enough lawyers can easily prove and justify why a military operation is turning into a humanitarian mission, and if it is necessary, for example, to remove uranium, you can save a few more people who claim that their rights are being monstrously infringed. That is, if it turns out that the United States needs to rescue the conditional "private Ryan," then the fighting will also continue," Sudakov added.
Indeed, there is a fairly extensive precedent base in the doctrine of US foreign policy and military practice for using military force abroad in order to save its citizens or allies. It will be possible to justify it, for example, during some kind of forced evacuation of American citizens.
In practice, such approaches, of course, will face a number of serious problems. First of all, the legislators will look not at the name, but at the real situation. If a prolonged campaign of airstrikes begins under the pretext of a humanitarian mission, Congress will hold Trump accountable, up to and including impeachment.
The Gulf states, on the contrary, are preparing for the end of the war. According to media reports, Saudi Arabia has discussed the idea of a Middle East non-aggression pact with Iran. The States expect to create a more stable security system in the region. It was based on the model of the Helsinki Accords of 1975, which were aimed at reducing tensions and strengthening cooperation between competing countries during the Cold War.
But it will be very difficult for the Arabian monarchies to agree on a pact. The countries of the Persian Gulf have different assessments of the threat level from Iran. This makes it more difficult to develop a unified position. Moreover, the aggressive rhetoric of the United States and Israel about the imminent outbreak of a new conflict calls such efforts into question. If Iran is attacked after the conclusion of the pact, Tehran will perceive the Arabians as accomplices in aggression, which will not increase the level of confidence in the Gulf.
What have Trump and Xi come to regarding the situation in the Middle East
The possibility of a renewed war in Iran has increased after Trump's state visit to China. The Republican intended to enlist China's support in resolving the conflict on his own terms. And, judging by the statements of the Chinese side, he did not succeed. Beijing has not yet disclosed any details beyond the general position on the need for de-escalation. At the same time, Trump himself publicly attributed agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue to Xi Jinping.
— We discussed Iran. Our views on Iran are very similar. We want this to end. We don't want them to have nuclear weapons. We want the straits to be open," the American leader said.
At the same time, official Beijing only repeated the general theses about a cease-fire, negotiations and regional stability. Moreover, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently confirmed Iran's legitimate right to peaceful use of the atom at a meeting with Abbas Araqchi.
According to experts, it makes no sense for China to "save" the United States from the Iranian conflict, which they themselves started, because the weakening of the United States fits into the strategic interests of China.
"If I were Beijing, I would proceed from the need to inflict as much damage as possible on the United States from their own mistake so that they pose less of a threat to China in the future," Jim Jatras, former Republican foreign policy adviser to the US Senate, told Izvestia.
At the same time, according to him, China does not necessarily think that way, because too many Chinese interests are still closely linked to the global order dominated by the United States. Beijing does not want to destroy this system and damage its short-term objectives, the expert stressed.
Therefore, Xi is likely to agree to various financial deals, but otherwise will limit himself to signals of willingness to cooperate without any obligations, since there is no point in interfering with the enemy when he is destroying himself, Jatras stressed. Saeed Khan, a professor at Wayne State University in Detroit, also believes that China's support for American demands on Iran is unlikely. China has access to cheap Iranian oil and other resources, and it is unreasonable for Beijing to indulge Washington's demands in this case, the political scientist notes.
Moreover, according to Khan, the geopolitical confrontation between China and the United States will only gain momentum. Trump's visit has temporarily reduced tensions, but the long-term outlook points to increased confrontation, as the balance of power, at least in the technological sphere, is rapidly shifting in favor of Beijing, the professor added.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump at a meeting ceremony at the People's Assembly House. May 14, 2026
— The fact that it was Trump who went to China to meet with Xi indicates that Beijing is now in an advantageous position. He arrived with a delegation consisting mainly of businessmen, which shows both the priorities in the interests of the United States and their plight, since China dominates the global economy, and the United States has few areas where they could compete with it fairly and unhindered," Khan said.
The confrontation between Washington and Beijing will definitely intensify, Jatras added. According to him, America is experiencing a crisis against the background of the war in Iran, and China understands that they may become the next on the "list of targets." Right before the visit, the head of the State Department, Marco Rubio, called China the main geopolitical challenge for the United States.
— Oil supplies from the Gulf to China were one of the key reasons that prompted Washington to attack Iran. It is illusory to believe that relations with China or Russia will improve under Trump," the former adviser concluded.
However, Xi Jinping accepted Trump's invitation to visit the United States — the Chinese leader is expected in the United States this fall. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to pay a state visit to China. This will be the first time that China will host the leaders of two powers in the same month outside of a multilateral context.
The situation in the Middle East is highly likely to be discussed during the trip. Russia and China have already proposed a peaceful solution to the Strait of Hormuz in the UN Security Council, unlike the United States, which insisted on a military solution to the issue. A dialogue between Putin and Xi could help develop mechanisms for a diplomatic settlement of the conflict without infringing on Iran's rights. In addition, Araqchi said that Tehran will discuss the export of enriched uranium with Moscow as soon as this issue begins to be resolved on the US-Iranian negotiating track.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
