Going with the flow: how Russia implements its main know-how
The most important area of global energy development in recent years has been the search for solutions for regions where the construction of traditional large—scale power plants and long network lines is economically impractical. The popularity of small modular reactors and one of their most flexible embodiments, floating nuclear thermal power plants (TPPs), is constantly growing. Now this sector, which previously consisted of separate prototypes, is beginning to be replicated commercially, and the palm belongs to Russia. About what patents are needed for and what market exists for these technologies — in the material of Izvestia.
What is the market capacity
The demand for nuclear power is growing every year. Atomophobia is gradually receding in many regions of the world. Nuclear power plants are a long-lasting, stable energy supply option in conditions where traditional supply routes often do not work (as we see from the situation in the Strait of Hormuz), and renewable energy does not always produce the expected exhaust, and its main problems (generation instability) have not gone away. At the same time, there are many places in the world where it is impossible or pointless to build a real, "big" nuclear power plant. PAES is an alternative for just such locations. In the next three decades, the main demand for floating power units will be concentrated in regions with specific geographical and economic conditions.
The first is island and archipelago States such as Indonesia and the Philippines. For the first country, whose territory is distributed among 17,000 islands, it is difficult to create a unified energy system. The current generation model in such countries often relies on expensive and environmentally harmful fuel oil. Thermal power plants with a capacity of up to 100 MW are capable of providing a base load for individual islands or industrial clusters, eliminating the cost of underwater cables and complex logistics of fossil fuels.
The second segment is the hard—to-reach mining provinces. These are primarily the Arctic zone (Russia, Canada, Greenland), as well as the coastal regions of Africa and Latin America. Here, thermal power plants act as autonomous energy sources for mining enterprises producing metals and rare earths. The mobility of the installation allows it to be moved to a new facility after the depletion of the deposit, which significantly reduces the investment risks of subsurface users.
The third segment is formed in the coastal megacities of developing countries in South Asia and the Gulf of Guinea (Nigeria, Senegal). The high population growth rates here outstrip the capabilities of local networks. The floating station can be connected to the urban infrastructure within a few months, working as an emergency stabilizer of the energy balance.
Finally, there are regions with a shortage of fresh water (the Middle East and North Africa). The energy intensity of seawater desalination processes makes the NPP the optimal solution for creating large desalination plants operating under constant load.
According to Rosatom's estimates, confirmed by data from the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Energy Agency, the total global market for small modular reactors, including floating solutions, will range from $150 to $200 billion by 2040.
Quantitative forecasts suggest the need to build from 100 to 300 small nuclear power units in the coming decades. The projected annual growth rate of this segment is 15-20%. This dynamic is explained by the countries' desire for decarbonization and energy security in the face of volatile gas and oil prices.
In the first roles
The range of countries with real expertise in the design and construction of floating reactors is extremely limited at the moment.
Russia holds the status of the undisputed technological leader. The Russian Federation is the only state with experience in operating an existing nuclear power plant (Akademik Lomonosov in Pevek) and a well—established portfolio of serial orders. Rosatom has a full production cycle: from the design of reactor plants of the RITM-200 series to the availability of specialized shipyards.
China is acting as the main competitor, actively reducing the technological gap. Chinese state-owned corporations CNNC and CGN are developing their own projects, such as ACP100S. The country's main advantage is the excess capacity of shipyards, which will potentially allow Beijing to scale the construction of floating barges faster than any other player in the event of receiving export orders.
The United States has significant experience in operating small—sized reactors on aircraft carriers and submarines, but its civilian projects — NuScale and Westinghouse - are still in the design stages or a complex licensing process. American companies are mainly focused on land-based SMRs, yielding in the pace of implementation of marine versions.
South Korea and Denmark are forming an alternative technology alliance. South Korean shipbuilding giants Samsung Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai are collaborating with Danish startup Seaborg Technologies to develop floating salt melt reactors. This technology is considered safer and more promising for the Southeast Asian markets, but it takes several more years to create a working prototype.
From prototype to series
In Russia, the development of the TPP is integrated into the strategy for the development of the Northern Sea Route and the development of the Arctic. The financing of these programs until 2030 is measured in hundreds of billions of rubles.
The flagship commercial project is the energy supply of the Baim Mining and Processing Plant in Chukotka. The contract includes the construction of four upgraded floating power units (MPEs). The construction cost of this series is estimated in the range of 150-190 billion rubles. The economic model of the project is based on the LCOE (present value of electricity) indicator, which allows the subsurface user to plan expenses for decades ahead without depending on imported fuel.
To promote technologies to foreign markets, Russia is ready to use the mechanisms of state export credits. By analogy with the projects of large nuclear power plants (El Dabaa in Egypt, Paks-2 in Hungary), the volume of loans for a specific foreign NPP project can range from $5 to $10 billion.
The key factor of competitiveness is the time of commissioning of the facility. The prototype of the Akademik Lomonosov station has been under construction for more than ten years due to the need to refine technologies and regulatory frameworks. Rosatom's current plans envisage the transition to serial production of MPEB with a cycle of 4-5 years from the moment of the "first steel cutting" to the transfer to the customer.
The main integrator is Rosatom, represented by the Afrikantov Design Bureau (reactor developer) and Atomenergomash Holding. The main construction site at the current stage is the Baltic Shipyard in St. Petersburg, in the future the Zvezda complex in the Far East may be connected to the program. Chinese companies declare even more ambitious deadlines — 3-4 years, relying on highly automated processes of their shipbuilding.
The factor of geopolitics
Rosatom's strategy in the field of hydropower plants has a clearly defined geographical structure, divided into domestic and export contours.
The internal vector is concentrated in the Arctic. Securing the Northern Sea Route, the port of Dikson, and the Kuchus and Baim zone fields is a matter of strengthening national sovereignty in the region. Thermal power plants act as "energy anchors" here, allowing the deployment of industrial infrastructure in permafrost conditions.
South-East Asia is a priority in the foreign market. Memoranda of understanding have already been signed with Indonesia and the Philippines. These countries consider floating nuclear power plants as a way to eliminate energy shortages without large-scale costs for transmission lines. Vietnam is also interested in returning to the "nuclear club" through the use of small forms of generation.
The African vector is focused on countries with developed coastlines, such as Sudan and the Gulf of Guinea States. Here, Russia offers the TPP as a solution for rapid industrialization in the absence of developed national networks. In Latin America, negotiations are underway with Brazil, which is interested in supplying energy to remote areas and creating desalination facilities.
In general, it can be stated that the floating nuclear power plant sector is reaching the stage of maturity. Russia's technological advantage, provided by the presence of a reference unit and a spent RITM-200 reactor plant, gives the country a window of opportunity of 5-7 years before serious competitors from China and South Korea enter the market. The success of this industry will depend on the ability of manufacturers to meet the stated construction deadlines and provide a cost comparable to traditional gas generation. The transition to the serial construction of MPEB for Baimsky GOK will be an important test that will determine whether Russia will be able to turn the unique technology into a global highly profitable business.
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