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- Modest miscalculations: up to 15% of the microbusiness may be at risk of closure in 2026.
Modest miscalculations: up to 15% of the microbusiness may be at risk of closure in 2026.
If the key reduction is too slow, up to 15% of microenterprises may be at risk of closure this year, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The Bank of Russia predicts that by the end of 2026, the average annual rate will be 14-14.5%. The high cost of borrowed funds is already depriving small businesses of access to working capital. SME lending is cooling: in January–February, the volume of disbursements decreased by 15%. The number of restructuring applications for 2025 has jumped 1.7 times, but banks approve only a third of them. This can lead to a sharp increase in delays. Which industries are most vulnerable — in the Izvestia article.
How many microenterprises are at risk
At the beginning of March, 64% of SME debt accounted for loans with floating rates, and 79% of these loans are directly linked to the key one, according to statistics from the Central Bank. This means that most borrowers are completely dependent on the decisions of the regulator: while maintaining the key level at a high level, debt servicing will remain expensive.
Due to the slow rate reduction, about 15% of microenterprises may be at risk of closure by the end of the year, experts interviewed by Izvestia predict.
The current situation is comparable to the stressful period of 2020, said Alexey Kurasov, Head of Corporate Finance at Finam. 5-6% of companies may close completely, and another 9-10% will be forced to reduce their activities (for example, eliminate some outlets) or switch to survival mode, the expert noted. In some segments, primarily in catering and offline commerce, the share of such reductions can even reach 30%.
Up to 8% of SMEs may completely leave the market, Pavel Zholobov, senior director of NRA ratings of financial institutions, agreed. According to him, microenterprises with an annual turnover of up to 15-20 million rubles are the most vulnerable, whose margin does not cover the current level of short-term loan rates (about 20%).
Dmitry Orekhov, Managing Director of the NKR rating agency, gave a tougher forecast. The analyst believes that the number of microenterprises in segments sensitive to falling demand (retail, catering, small-scale construction, household services) may decrease by 15-25%. At the same time, some of the departures will occur through a "dormant" state without formal bankruptcy, the expert noted.
There is already an alarming trend in the market, said Stepan Zemtsov, director of the Center for Economic Geography and Regionalism at the Presidential Academy. According to the latest data from Rosstat, the so-called death rate exceeds the birth rate in all industries. Moreover, in 2025, 1.37 closed enterprises accounted for one open enterprise, while in January 2026 it was already almost two. The largest growth was recorded in the areas of housing and communal services, real estate, construction and trade.
How does lending affect SMEs
In January–February 2026, loans in the amount of 1.6 trillion rubles were provided to SMEs, which is 15% less than a year earlier, according to the Central Bank. Moreover, the total debt from January to early March remained almost unchanged (due to repayments) and amounted to 14.8 trillion rubles at the beginning of spring. This indicates weak net growth and portfolio stagnation, Dmitry Orekhov noted.
The overdue debt reached 596.7 billion rubles. Micro-companies account for more than half of all "bad" debts in the SME segment, the press service of the Bank of Russia told Izvestia. However, the amount of debt owed by enterprises that have recently faced difficulties is still relatively small — about 3% of the total debt of the sector.
At the same time, small and medium-sized businesses have become much more likely to apply for loan restructuring (easing credit conditions in order to reduce the burden). In 2025, banks received 280.9 thousand such applications, which is 1.7 times more than a year earlier. However, they reject almost two thirds of the applications (61%), the NRA estimates. According to the agency's analysts, this indicates a strict policy of credit institutions in conditions of uncertainty.
The regulator recommended banks to restructure loans more actively and allowed not to form additional reserves if the borrower has a realistic recovery plan, the press service of the Central Bank added. This should reduce the risk of a sharp increase in bankruptcies.
Nevertheless, by the end of 2026, the share of overdue loans may grow to 4.5%, and the total share of problem loans to real SMEs may exceed 20% of the portfolio, according to Ilya Fedorin, Associate Director for Credit Institution Ratings at Expert RA agency.
Which industries are suffering the most
The most critical situation is in industries with low profitability and high dependence on everyday consumer demand: small retail, catering, household and service services, and parts of local production, said Polina Kondrashchuk, owner of the Pricks communications agency.
In these segments, entrepreneurs are virtually unable to flexibly manage the price, as consumers become more cost-sensitive and easily switch to cheaper alternatives or postpone purchases. At the same time, the key cost items — rent, payroll, logistics and procurement — continue to grow, rapidly reducing the margin of safety of the business, the expert added.
The most difficult segments are those that directly depend on demand, the financial adviser and founder of Rodin agreed.Capital Alexey Rodin. In catering, depending on the region, the flow of guests decreased by 5-15%. Retail and small businesses also face difficulties. It is small companies, which find it more difficult to withstand challenges due to the lack of an internal control system and clear planning, that are the first to feel the fluctuations of the economy, he added.
The beauty industry is also at risk: salons with inflated prices for services may not be able to withstand competition, added Yulia Kovalenko, Deputy head of the Higher School of Economics of Moscow Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. In addition, the sphere of trade remains in the zone of greatest risk — the traditional segment of real SMEs, Ilya Fedorin emphasized. According to the Central Bank, the share of overdue payments in it as of March 1, 2026 was 11%, almost three times higher than the market average (4%).
What will happen to the microbusiness in 2026
The market will repeat the logic of previous stressful periods — some of the players will leave, but the surviving enterprises will adapt and increase efficiency, says Alexey Kurasov from Finam. Despite the difficulties, there are no signs of systemic destabilization, Ilya Fedorin agreed. He expects a moderate recovery in lending activity in the second half of 2026 - loans may grow by about 10% to 16 trillion rubles due to the expansion of preferential programs and an increase in subsidy limits.
However, current support measures are often aimed at more sustainable companies, Polina Kondrashchuk emphasized. Microbusiness, on the other hand, needs rapid liquidity tools: subsidizing revolving loans, flexible tax regimes, and reducing the administrative burden. The expert predicts further fragmentation of the sector: some entrepreneurs will move into self—employment, some into the informal sector, and the most flexible companies will strengthen their positions through digitalization and new sales channels.
The combination of a high key rate, fiscal burden and stagnating consumer demand is putting increased pressure on the microbusiness, analysts agree. Against this background, the risk of closure of a significant proportion of such enterprises becomes a realistic scenario. However, a large-scale crisis is unlikely so far: the sector is undergoing a painful stage of adaptation to the new economic reality, where the key factor for survival will be the ability to quickly change the business model and manage costs.
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