National policy specifics: the Trump-Xi meeting will not bring the United States and China closer

According to them, the negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping were successful, but there is no talk of a sharp rapprochement, experts told Izvestia. So far, the United States and China are trying to stabilize relations only in the economy. Beijing almost immediately decided to renew licenses for more than 400 meat processing plants from the United States. Contracts in the field of microchips for AI are also possible, which, on the other hand, will help Washington control the high-tech market. In addition to businesses interested in restarting relations, the main anti-Chinese "hawks" have also arrived in Beijing: it is Rubio and Hegseth who consider China to be the main threat to the United States.

What did Trump and Xi agree on?

The face-to-face meeting between the leaders of the United States and China has finally taken place. Direct talks between geopolitical rivals Donald Trump and Xi Jinping lasted more than two hours. This was enough for the President of the People's Republic of China to call 2026 a historic year in every sense for relations with the United States. According to him, the common interests of the two countries outweigh their differences. Trump echoed his Chinese counterpart: "I have great respect for China. To the work that you have done. You are a great leader." Relations between the parties will reach a level exceeding all previous periods, the US president said. However, all this is nothing more than a protocol exchange of pleasantries.

Nevertheless, certain steps towards normalization of relations have already been taken: the United States intends to develop trade with China on a mutually beneficial basis. And this fits perfectly into the logic of Donald Trump, the main "ambassador" of the deals.

According to media reports, the leaders agreed to expand cooperation in the field of agriculture. In particular, China has renewed export licenses for more than 400 American meat processing plants. The sector, it would seem, is not so significant, but due to trade wars, beef exports from the United States to China in 2025 fell from a peak of $1.7 billion to some $500 million in just three years.

Now, Beijing's decision has opened up access to one of the most premium markets for a significant part of the American industry, which can be considered a signal of readiness to strengthen rather than destroy trade and economic ties. Moreover, representatives of a whole host of the largest American businesses went to China with Trump: BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, SpaceX, Nvidia, Boeing, Apple, Mastercard, Visa and others.

The program of the more informal meeting between Trump and Xi on May 15 included a discussion of artificial intelligence issues. According to media reports, the United States has allowed about 10 Chinese companies to purchase Nvidia's second most powerful American H200 chip. It is important to note that before the tightening of restrictions by the United States, the company accounted for about 95% of the Chinese market for advanced chips. In early 2026, the head of Alibaba (creator of the Qwen neural network) Joe Tsai even acknowledged that the country is two years behind the United States in the field of AI. China lacks the computing power needed to train models. However, Google believes that Chinese manufacturers are quickly catching up with the gap and are already months behind.

The United States understands that China is actively engaged in import substitution and in many areas no longer needs American technologies, Alexey Maslov, director of the ISAA of Moscow State University, told Izvestia. According to him, the issue of chip supply is not just a desire to trade, but an element of struggle: the Americans do not want to give the Chinese market to the Chinese companies themselves.

The harder the United States puts pressure on the Chinese high-tech market, the more China accelerates import substitution. And with metered access, the Americans can "squeeze" export licenses somewhere, restrict service somewhere, and block supplies through allies altogether. This scheme allows Washington to maintain China's dependence on the American technology sector and leaves leverage for bargaining in the negotiations.

There can be no talk of any real rapprochement between the United States and China, said Alexander Lomanov, head of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies at the IMEMO RAS. Beijing's main task is to stabilize relations and prevent a sharp deterioration. His proposal, in fact, is to make the competition controllable and predictable, the expert explained.

The United States is imposing competition on China because in conditions of fair competition, Americans are losing, says American political scientist Malek Dudakov. Washington has to arrange provocations, military actions, and strike at China's partners like Venezuela and Iran in order to create problems for the Chinese economy, the expert concluded.

The US and China discussed Iran and Ukraine

Of course, Trump was accompanied in China not only by business sharks, but also by political hawks, that is, the closest circle from his administration. In particular, the head of the State Department, Marco Rubio, arrived, who called China the biggest threat to the United States. For his position, the Secretary of State even came under Chinese sanctions in 2020, including a ban on entry to China, so for a long time it was unclear whether he would be able to travel to Beijing at all. But, according to media reports, the Chinese side found a diplomatic loophole: official structures allegedly used a different transliteration of Rubio's surname in Chinese. This detail rather eloquently emphasizes the geopolitical orientation in the confrontation between Beijing and Washington, rather than some kind of ideological rejection of each other.

The head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, also adheres to a tough position on Beijing. Curiously, the defense minister had noticeably more business in the Chinese capital than the Secretary of State. Videos have spread on social networks showing Hegseth actively communicating with Chinese military officials during the reception, while Rubio is literally idly wandering around the hall.

Now the White House sees China not just as a trade competitor, but as a state influencing conflicts that directly affect the interests of the United States. Hegseth is most concerned about potential military supplies from China to Iran. Although back in mid-April, China assured that it would not transfer weapons to Iran during the current truce between Washington and Tehran.

According to media reports, Trump and Xi exchanged views on the situation in Iran, as well as in Ukraine. Contacts between Moscow, Washington and Kiev have not yet resumed in the same volume, so now it is important for the American to get the Middle East conflict off the ground — the ceasefire, in his own words, is already "on a ventilator," and the parties are taking turns rejecting each other's conditions for a settlement.

Trump is taking economic steps towards China in order to get Beijing to completely stop supporting Tehran's defense sector, Maslov added. According to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Commission, China exports dual-use components, materials, and technologies that allowed Iran to produce missiles and drones. It was also reported that in 2025 and 2026, Iranian ships were allegedly loaded with materials for solid rocket fuel in China. American intelligence stated that Beijing was preparing to transfer new air defense systems to Iran through third countries. In addition, Washington sees Chinese companies as a resource for Iran to restore its military potential in the face of sanctions.

However, the only serious lever of the United States to exert pressure on China is Taiwan, Maslov noted. However, Xi Jinping immediately warned Donald Trump about the risks of escalation. According to him, the wrong approach to this issue may lead to conflict between China and the United States, and Taipei's independence is incompatible with peace in the region.

On the one hand, Washington recognizes the concept of a "united China," on the other, it continues to supply weapons to the island, which Beijing considers a breakaway Chinese province. The last shipment was delayed, and China saw this as a good sign, the expert added.

"Trump wants to show that he is ready to reduce the level of anti—Chinese and pro—Taiwan rhetoric in exchange for a number of promises: for example, to expand food purchases in the United States by hundreds of billions of dollars," Maslov concluded.

Dudakov shares a similar opinion. According to him, Trump may promise to stop military supplies to Taiwan and thus persuade China to put pressure on Iran. But this is not a knight's move either: Trump will not be able to completely "surrender" Taipei — he will be crushed by the anti-Chinese lobby in the United States. But Iran is still not a satellite of China, and Beijing does not control the processes in the republic.

Moreover, China will not abandon purchases of cheap Iranian oil, especially against the background of the loss of Venezuelan partners after the seizure of Nicolas Maduro by the United States. But a long-term period of high oil prices could trigger a global recession. And this will already hit China, so there is a chance that Beijing will still contribute to at least a partial settlement, Dudakov concluded. At least, following the meeting, Xi and Trump agreed that Iran should never obtain nuclear weapons, and also stated the need to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for free energy supplies.