Tightening mortgages: how Russians adapt to the new rules of the Central Bank
The Bank of Russia has tightened macroprudential mortgage limits for the third quarter of this year, limiting the issuance of the most risky loans with a high debt burden (over 80%) and a low down payment. The Central Bank's measures, according to the regulator's press service, should not lead to a sharp increase in refusals, since banks are already issuing risky loans below the new limits. All the details are in the Izvestia article.
Risks of workarounds
The Central Bank sets new restrictions for banks from July 1. The solution is aimed at reducing the number of vulnerable loans. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the share of overdue mortgages in April of this year (over 90 days) reached 1%, the volume of problem debts doubled to 205 billion rubles by the end of 2025, and in the first half of 2025, the courts satisfied 89.5% of the 6.1 thousand eviction claims.
— The decision to tighten the macroprudential mortgage limits for the purchase of housing under construction and ready-made in apartment buildings in the third quarter was made in order to limit the issuance of the most risky mortgages in the future and gradually reduce its share in the mortgage portfolio. At the same time, we do not expect that the tightening will lead to an increase in the share of mortgage refusals, because in fact banks are already issuing risky mortgages less than the new limits, the press service of the Bank of Russia told Izvestia.
For example, according to the Central Bank, in the first quarter of 2026, 4% of mortgage loans were provided with a borrower's debt burden of over 80%, and 1% with a down payment of no more than 20% of the cost of housing.
However, restrictions can still lead to risky decisions, such as taking out several consumer loans or buying distressed new buildings at a large discount. Although banks have tightened control over the overall debt burden, interest in facilities with a noticeable price reduction is growing. But the low cost often hides the problems of financing the project. As a result, defects were detected in 93% of the commissioned apartment buildings in 2025. This is evidenced by the research of the center "Analytics. Business. The right."
The tightening leads to a revision of plans to improve housing conditions. Families are more likely to consider the secondary market, reduce their requests, or save up a larger contribution. According to Rosstat and Dom reports.Russian Federation", the pace of transactions is slowing down. Subsidized rates from developers help to pass scoring, and a classic mortgage with an eye to refinancing can be more profitable than waiting for lower rates with rising prices, according to the Cian information.
At the same time, Kirill Kulakov, a professor at the Moscow State University of Economics and an honorary builder of the Russian Federation, is nevertheless confident that "strategically, this tightening prevents future dramas when a family loses its only home as a result of financial problems."
— The only correct advice is to create savings and purchase housing commensurate with opportunities, not desires, — the expert urges.
Alternative ways to purchase housing
Against the background of tightening mortgage conditions, Russians are beginning to consider installments from developers, leases with the right to buy, and housing and construction cooperatives (HCS). According to Cian, installments now account for about 15% of transactions. Its main feature is interest—free conditions with a down payment of 30-50% and a deadline usually before the house is rented. This option often turns out to be more profitable than a classic mortgage for buyers. However, it is suitable only for those who are able to close payments within 2-3 years.
The dynamics of installment payment popularity is significant: if in 2022 its share in the total volume of equity contracts did not exceed 7%, by the end of 2025 it had more than doubled to 16%. In monetary terms, the volume of installments increased from 300 billion to 1.3–1.4 trillion rubles. However, according to the basic forecast of the NKR rating agency and Dom.Russia" for 2026, the share of installments in housing transactions will decrease to 12%, and the volume will decrease to 1 trillion rubles.
An important caveat: now, according to Cian, this payment method is offered by more than 90% of developers, but only 38% of buyers are ready to use this tool — for the majority it remains a forced solution. At the same time, the risk of cancellations is also growing: if now the share of cancelled installment transactions is about 3-15%, then in 2026 analysts predict an increase in this figure to 30%.
A foreclosed lease allows you to start without a large down payment, counting rent payments into the cost of the apartment and then switching to a mortgage. However, the object remains secured until full payment, which creates additional risks. After changes in legislation, housing and communal services remained mainly within the framework of state programs for certain categories of citizens and did not become a mass alternative, according to Dom.RF reports.
In comparison with a mortgage, a short installment plan looks preferable if funds are available, but developers are gradually phasing out long schemes for 5-10 years. According to statistics from Rosreestr and Dom.Russia", about 30-33% (about a third) of potential buyers who do not pass scoring are forced to postpone the deal or choose more budget options. The situation is aggravated by the drop in approval of applications: over the past six months, the share of mortgage approvals has decreased from 61.5% in October 2025 to 49.9% in March 2026. At the same time, according to Cian, the share of transactions for cash and installments in 2025 increased from 24 to 28% of the total amount, and prices for new buildings increased by 10.2% over the year.
Valery Letenkov, General Director of the Moscow Real Estate Investment Agency, explains that often alternative transactions still have serious consequences for buyers. Attempts to circumvent restrictions through consumer loans lead to a situation where payments grow faster than incomes, warns Dmitry Uvarov, head of the UvarovDom real estate agency.
If the key interest rate remains above 13-15% in 2026, a further slowdown in mortgage issuance and an increase in the share of unsold projects are possible, experts admit.
Developers' own preferential programs
Developers are expanding subsidized programs and options with minimal or no down payment. With the cost of an apartment of 10 million rubles and a 20% contribution, according to Glavstroy-Real Estate calculations, the payment at the market rate of 17.3% is about 116 thousand rubles, at the subsidized rate of 11.9% — 82 thousand rubles, and for a grace period of 8-10% — 59-70 thousand rubles.
Combined programs and a tranche mortgage allow you to reduce initial payments with the possibility of refinancing. Such schemes increase the chances of approval, although after the grace period the rate returns to the market level of 18-19%, and part of the subsidy is often included in the price of the facility, according to data from the Dom.RF portal. Vadim Butin, Head of the mortgage lending department at Glavstroy-Real Estate, confirms that these programs help keep demand down. At the same time, the Asterus development company notes the current growing interest in tranche and subsidized schemes, the share of which may grow to 10%.
High deposit rates of 20-25% per annum for short periods, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, stimulate the use of bank deposits to accumulate an initial payment. The share of transactions with 100% payment remains at about 30%. Many families are extending their savings periods to reduce the loan size and debt burden. According to Rosstat, some buyers are postponing the improvement of housing conditions, switching to more affordable formats.
Alternative instruments such as bonds and mutual funds may gain popularity for diversification, although conservative deposits remain the main choice. Kvartal-Investstroy believes that in response to changes in the mortgage system, in particular in family mortgages, developers will become more active in offering market mortgages with customization for the client. Subsidized rates will be transformed under the influence of the target audience of a particular project and those banks that provide loans. That is, the situation is turning now in such a way that developers are becoming not only sellers of real estate, a specific residential complex, its territory and infrastructure, but also sellers of rates and current banking products.
However, Irina Pavlova, dynamic pricing analyst at BM Group Development, warns that a subsidized rate from a developer can be beneficial only if it is not offset by an overestimation of the apartment price. Earlier, the Central Bank indicated that near-zero rates could be accompanied by a 20-30% rise in housing prices. Therefore, when choosing, it is important to compare the total cost of the apartment and the amount of the overpayment.
Some of the clients, according to the interlocutor of Izvestia, may be more actively considering installments from the developer, trade-in or accumulation of a higher initial payment. At the same time, cooperatives and leases with the right to buy are unlikely to become widespread due to low legal transparency and lack of government regulation. The expert also focuses on the fact that the most reliable way for the buyer is a transparent transaction economy: a real discount, an escrow account, and a clear payment schedule.
The Ministry of Construction and Housing and Communal Services of the Russian Federation and the Public Council under the Ministry of Construction had not responded to Izvestia's request at the time of publication.
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