Trade pressure: The United States expects to influence Iran through China

Donald Trump's state visit to China marks a major shift in Sino-American cooperation, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Previously, the dialogue was conducted exclusively in the format of a remote tariff war, but now the parties have returned to traditional negotiations at the highest level. The heads of large American businesses have also flown to Beijing, and new contracts are expected, including with the participation of Boeing. Through the trade agenda, the head of the White House wants to win China over to his side in the conflict with Iran. If negotiations with Beijing reach an impasse, Trump may play the "Taiwan card" with the supply of weapons to the island.

The United States and China will discuss the situation in Iran and Ukraine.

For the first time since 2017, Donald Trump arrived in China. The US President's state visit will last for three days: from May 13 to May 15. The American leader was greeted with a flourish: to musical accompaniment, with an honor guard. About 300 young people arrived at the airport with the flags of China and the United States. The President was met at the ramp by Chinese Vice President Han Zheng.

The visit was originally planned for the end of March, but the trip had to be postponed due to the war in Iran. It is the conflict in the Middle East that will become one of the central items on the agenda. At a minimum, the American side wants Beijing to support the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping.

It is noteworthy that China, together with Russia, has already proposed a draft resolution on this issue in the UN Security Council. The position of the two countries is unequivocal here: stop the war, refrain from using force in the strait and sit down at the negotiating table. The United States also offered its own version, which was drawn up jointly with Bahrain. But in it, according to media reports, the parties prescribed the possibility of unblocking the strait with the use of armed force.

China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil. About 90% of the republic's fuel exports go to China. Kpler estimates that in 2025, China bought an average of 1.38 million barrels of Iranian oil per day. This is what Trump wants to bet on, considering Beijing to be one of the few players that can really influence Tehran economically and diplomatically. Although, of course, the American leader publicly declares that he does not need the help of his Chinese counterpart. However, disruptions in shipping remain a threat to the entire global energy market. And that is why the topic of the Middle East is firmly embedded in the agenda of the meeting between Trump and Xi.

The situation in the region is precarious: an unstable ceasefire is in effect, which, according to Trump, is "on life support," and negotiations on a peace agreement have reached an impasse. In addition to opening Hormuz, Washington continues to demand that Tehran abandon its nuclear program, while Iran insists, among other things, on lifting sanctions, compensations and withdrawing American troops from the region.

The United States believes that half of the world is tied to China and it is involved in all problematic issues of the non-Western sphere of influence, and therefore it can put pressure on Iran, said Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. However, Tehran is not so dependent on Beijing and is very free in its actions. Now, rather, China depends on Iran, at least for oil supplies, the expert stressed. In addition, Tehran has a historical hatred of the United States and Israel, which Chinese negotiators are unlikely to change, Blokhin added.

"From China's perspective, the current high—level dialogue with the United States is aimed at managing conflicts between major powers and stabilizing the global situation, rather than sharing world domination with Washington," Yang Chen, professor at Shanghai University of International Studies and Professor at Shanghai University of International Studies, told Izvestia. — China will continue to urge both sides to resolve their issues through dialogue and negotiation.

China will adhere to neutrality for as long as possible, since Iran is its strategic partner, said Ekaterina Zaklyazminskaya, a leading researcher at the Center for World Politics and Strategic Analysis of the ISSA RAS. And Trump, according to her, did not come to China in the strongest position: he needed some kind of trump card, an instrument of pressure on Beijing.

And Taiwan can become such a trump card. Donald Trump has already announced that he will talk with Xi Jinping about the supply of American weapons to the island, which Beijing considers a breakaway Chinese province. Earlier, the United States approved an arms package worth $11 billion, which was expected to be strongly opposed by China.

— This is a very dangerous game. Thus, the American leader will cross all the red lines of Beijing," Zaklyazminskaya stressed. — This card will be played only as a last resort if Beijing does not make the necessary trade, economic and investment concessions to Washington, or if the negotiations as a whole reach an impasse.

Taiwan is a special issue for China, and in this regard, the United States can turn Taiwan into a regional "second Ukraine," Blokhin says. The issue of CBO will also be raised along with Middle Eastern issues, Zaklyazminskaya added. According to her, Trump and Xi are likely to discuss the upcoming visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to China in the second half of May.

China, although it does not participate in negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, remains one of Russia's closest allies and retains significant influence. Li Hui, the republic's former special representative for Eurasian Affairs, visited not only Russia and Ukraine several times, but also European countries interested in the conflict to facilitate a settlement and find common ground. Together with Brazil, China has also created a platform called "Friends of the World" to discuss ways to resolve the crisis, which has been joined by dozens of countries.

The possibility of an economic thaw between China and the United States

Nevertheless, the United States has traditionally chosen economics as the main way to win over China. The tariff wars initiated by Washington in the first half of 2025 in the form of numerous threats and the imposition of protective duties on Chinese goods really led to the intensification of trade negotiations originally planned by Trump, said Egor Toropov, an American scientist, candidate of political Sciences, and analyst at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

Washington still maintains duties on Chinese imports, as well as separate high tariffs on electric vehicles, steel, aluminum and a number of medical products. In 2025, the parties partially reduced mutual restrictions: American — from 145% to 30%, Chinese — from 125% to 10%. The situation changed dramatically on February 20, 2026. The US Supreme Court declared Trump's duties illegal, and eventually he reduced them to 10%.

Nevertheless, the United States continues to increase export controls in the field of semiconductors and complicate the supply of equipment for Chinese microelectronics, while China responds with measures against foreign IT companies and restrictions in the field of rare earths. US tariffs have indeed reduced the US trade deficit with China to $202 billion in 2025, but this has not forced Beijing to change its trade and industrial policy. China will adhere primarily to its national interests and does not intend to give in, Zaklyazminskaya stressed.

Nevertheless, Trump's visit to China marks a major shift in the format of Sino-American cooperation: there is a departure from the previous "diplomacy in social networks" and sharp tariff increases towards a more traditional mechanism overseen by senior officials, Yang Chen said. This provides medium- and long-term certainty in areas such as critical minerals, agricultural products, and semiconductors.

During the state visit, Trump is accompanied by the heads of large American businesses: BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Boeing, Apple, SpaceX, NVIDIA and others. A business dialogue is planned, where a breakthrough can even be expected, Ekaterina Zaklyazminskaya noted. According to her, the two countries have a major Boeing contract suspended: China intends to purchase up to 500 airliners. The resumption of trade, economic and investment dialogue is also possible, but if everything does not go according to Trump's plan, he will play the same "Taiwan card," the expert concluded.

Blokhin added that Trump still needs to even out the US trade balance and slow down China's economic development. If China continues to stick to its course, the United States is doomed to cede its place as the main world power. Therefore, the task of the Americans, as long as they retain a strong leadership in the military sphere, is to "push through" Beijing and impose their economic rules on it, the American concluded.

As a result, the meeting between Trump and Xi will show on what terms the parties can agree and whether they will do it at all. For the United States, this is a chance to test whether China is ready to make concessions on trade and Iran, and for China, it is an opportunity to maintain dialogue and establish former economic ties. The United States and China remain the two largest economies in the world, so even a partial normalization of their relations is important not only for themselves, but for the entire international system — from trade and investment to commodity prices and market sentiment.