The IEA pointed to a deterioration in the forecast for global oil production in 2026

Experts involved in the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their forecast for the growth of global oil supplies this year in their report. This is evidenced by the documents published on the organization's website on May 13.

The situation, as explained, is developing due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Due to the military events in the region, the global supply of raw materials may decrease by 8 million bpd this month.

"Global oil demand will decrease by 420 thousand barrels per year in 2026 to 104 million barrels per day, which is 1.3 million barrels less than our pre-war forecast. <...> It is projected that oil refining volumes at the plants in 2026 will decrease by 4.5 million barrels per day to 78.7 million per day and by 1.6 million bpd to 82.3 million barrels per day in 2026 as a whole," the material says.

As a result, the volume of supplies is at risk of falling to the lowest level since the beginning of 2022 — 98.8 million bpd. According to the IEA estimates, export flows through the Strait of Hormuz have practically stopped at the moment. In addition, eight countries — Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq, Algeria, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Oman — have already reduced oil production last month.

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A day earlier, Reuters reported a rise in the price of Brent crude futures to $105.07 per barrel. The same trend was recorded in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil — up to $99.06. Experts who assessed this situation said that if Tehran and Washington do not conclude a peace agreement by the end of May 2026, the risks of a new price increase for the products they characterize will increase significantly.