On the verge of collapse: The United States and Iran are provoking each other to escalate

The truce between the United States and Iran was on the verge of collapse, and the negotiations between the parties reached an impasse. Tehran rejected Washington's latest proposals, and Trump said there was a 1% chance of maintaining the ceasefire. It is almost impossible for the warring parties to reach an agreement right now, but an interim agreement is likely, experts told Izvestia. There is no longer a clear position in Iran regarding non-contractual resistance, and it is unprofitable for Trump to continue fighting ahead of the midterm elections. At the same time, Israel has attacked Lebanon again, which undermines any attempts at a settlement. Whether there is a chance to reach a compromise before the resumption of fire is in the Izvestia article.

Iran and the United States did not agree again

Over the past few days, there has been hope that the United States and Iran have at least heard each other by exchanging conditions for resuming official negotiations. For some time, Tehran kept Washington and the whole world in suspense, preparing to respond to proposals from the White House transmitted through Pakistan.

The answer I finally received was a categorical "no." Tehran is again demanding compensation for military damage, guarantees of non-aggression, and insists on Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of sanctions, including the lifting of the ban on oil sales. As explained in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic, Tehran does not require any concessions from Washington, as all demands are legitimate. The main focus is on ending the war in all its forms, including the Lebanese direction, and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, that is, ending "US maritime piracy."

Donald Trump, predictably, found all the conditions and demands unacceptable, even allegedly without reading this, as he put it, "waste paper", jeopardizing the already fragile truce between the parties.

"I would say that the ceasefire is on a ventilator, and the doctor comes in and tells a relative that their loved one has about a 1% chance of survival," the US president said.

At the same time, it is not yet clear what exactly will become the new goals of the US Armed Forces in the event of a resumption of hostilities, since, according to the head of the White House, the United States has already defeated Iran from a military point of view.

Perhaps the greatest uncertainty now is around the Iranian nuclear program. A thick fog covers not only its future prospects, but also, almost literally, the nuclear materials themselves, which remain under the rubble after the American bombings. The United States allegedly has to dig up this "nuclear dust" itself, as Trump once again called them, in order to get them out of Iran. At the same time, Tehran claims that the issue of the nuclear program has not been discussed with Washington at all, although negotiations on the atom are not excluded "when the time comes."

Moscow could play a constructive role here. Russia is ready to repeat the experience of storing enriched uranium from Iran, and initially everyone agreed with this, Vladimir Putin said at a recent press conference on May 9. However, the United States later toughened its stance on this issue. But there are reasons for optimism in the context of Russian-Iranian nuclear cooperation. The construction of nuclear power plants in Iran with the participation of Rosatom is resuming, and the state corporation is ready to ship key equipment in 2027, Alexey Likhachev said.

Nevertheless, Donald Trump still hopes for a diplomatic settlement of the conflict with Iran. And he doesn't seem to be hoping for a change in the political system in the Islamic republic anymore. "I will deal with them until they make a deal," the Republican told Fox News reporters. Trump's partner in military intervention, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, also publicly admits that the overthrow of the Iranian regime is not guaranteed, and the timing of change is unpredictable.

As well as the consequences for the global economy, which is suffering first. Global oil reserves are being depleted at a record pace, which brings the risk of even sharper price spikes closer, Bloomberg writes. According to Goldman Sachs, the apparent reserves of the resource are already near their lowest values since 2018. Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened right now, the market will need months to recover, said the head of Saudi oil flagship Saudi Aramco. According to Amin Nasser, a delay of just a few weeks will delay normalization until 2027.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that in the event of an escalation of the situation around Iran, "everyone will be affected." In addition, Russia is already in a difficult position due to its good relations with both Tehran and other Gulf countries.

Why is it not possible to reach an agreement on Hormuz and the nuclear program

It is almost impossible for Iran and the United States to come to an agreement now: negotiations are underway, intermediaries are shuttling, the parties are exchanging signals, but this is more likely a way to prevent complete chaos than a real movement towards peace, says Farhad Ibragimov, a lecturer at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia. And here it is important to emphasize that solving two key problems — control over the Strait of Hormuz and the future of the Iranian nuclear program — comes down to enormous risks for both sides.

— Tehran sees the right to enrich uranium almost as a matter of national honor. For them, this is not just a technology, but a symbol of sovereignty, won over decades of confrontation with the West. To abandon it means to admit that the country has been going the wrong way all this time," the expert is sure. — And for Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is a lever of influence that Tehran has been saving up and protecting as a strategic trump card in case of a real crisis.

For the United States, recognizing Iran's special role in controlling the strait means publicly agreeing that the American military presence in the region does not ensure the safety of navigation, Ibragimov explains.

On the other hand, despite the radically different positions of the parties, a number of factors may force them to adhere to a strategy of managed conflict. Ahead of the midterm congressional elections, where Republicans are likely to lose control of one of the chambers, it is advantageous for Trump to maintain temporary agreements.

As for Iran, although the Americans did not achieve all their goals, there could be a political separation in power. The internal system turned out to be more resistant and successfully built than was thought in the West, but nevertheless, the elimination of such a historical figure for Iran as Ali Khamenei created certain difficulties for her, says Murad Sadigzade, president of the Center for Middle East Studies, a visiting lecturer at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

— There are indeed forces that see the development of the future situation in different ways. This is what Trump has been saying all along, that they don't have a unified government there. Therefore, a framework agreement may become temporary until the end of this year," the expert said. — We will see a certain temporary stabilization, continuation of the negotiation track, various working groups, discussions, and then, most likely, once again all this will be disrupted.

Moreover, everything can be disrupted at any time due to a confrontation on a different but adjacent track. Iran also includes guarantees of non-aggression by Israel against Lebanon in the terms of the settlement. Last weekend, the IDF launched new strikes in southern Lebanon, attacking weapons depots and UAV launch sites of the Shiite Hezbollah movement based there. According to local authorities, at least 39 people were killed.

— The activation of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon may provoke Israeli retaliatory actions, which Iran, in turn, will perceive as a violation of the truce, given that Tehran insisted on extending it to the Lebanese direction. Another possible scenario is related to the prolongation of the "neither war nor peace" state. If Iran tries to restore its military potential, weakened during the conflict, Israel may regard this as a change in the strategic balance and the basis for preventive strikes," said Ivan Bocharov, INF program Manager.

Therefore, Israel may not even be interested in concluding an agreement between Iran and the United States, as this will actually tie its hands. According to orientalist Dmitry Maryasis, there is no consensus in the Israeli leadership on this issue, and if Hezbollah is not disarmed, then the conflict will be impossible to resolve at all.