The pressure of silence: Kiev was forced to agree to a truce from 9 to 11 May
Russia and Ukraine, with the mediation of the United States, agreed on a truce, which should last from May 9 to 11, as well as on the exchange of prisoners according to the "thousand for a thousand" formula. This was confirmed by representatives of all three sides on the evening of May 8. But even these agreements are very shaky, experts say, since Kiev violated the ceasefire regime previously announced by Moscow more than 1.6 thousand times in just one day. In particular, on Friday, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the mission control center in Rostov-on-Don. Vladimir Putin called the incident a terrorist attack at a meeting of the Security Council. How the Russian Federation will respond to Ukraine if it continues to escalate, and which of the leaders of the countries, despite threats from Kiev, flew to Moscow to celebrate the 81st anniversary of the Great Victory - in the Izvestia article.
What will the extension of the truce in honor of Victory lead to?
On the eve of Victory Day, Russia agreed to the initiative of US President Donald Trump on a truce with Ukraine from May 9 to 11. It has also been agreed to conduct a prisoner exchange in the "thousand for a thousand" format, said Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov. The head of the White House himself expressed the hope that this would be the "beginning of the end" of the conflict.
— We welcome this initiative, which follows on from the recent telephone conversation between the presidents of Russia and the United States, in which the leaders emphasized that our countries were allies during World War II, and also discussed the possibility of a truce during the Victory Day celebrations. And it is important that President Trump's initiative is timed to coincide with the 81st anniversary of the Victory over Nazism, our holy holiday," said Yuri Ushakov.
US President Donald Trump
The truce issue has been actively discussed since May 4, when the Russian authorities announced the introduction of a ceasefire on May 8 and 9. On the same day, Kiev announced the introduction of its own regime of silence, starting on May 6, but later violated it itself.
According to estimates by the Russian Defense Ministry, since midnight on May 8, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have violated the ceasefire regime 1,630 times. On the morning of the same day, the Kiev regime attacked the mission control center in Rostov-on-Don. Vladimir Putin has called a meeting with members of the Security Council on this issue. Due to the attack, the work of 13 airports in southern Russia was stopped — it will be restored within a few days.
— The Kiev regime has committed another act, of course, of a terrorist nature, namely, it attacked the Rostov regional Air Traffic Control Center. This could certainly have an impact on the safety of civil aircraft. Fortunately, no tragic events occurred as a result of the highly professional work of our air traffic controllers," the Russian president said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds an operational meeting with permanent members of the Russian Security Council via videoconference.
Earlier, on May 4, at the European summit in Yerevan, Vladimir Zelensky said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would make every effort to disrupt the parade in Moscow. The Russian Defense Ministry made it clear that in the event of a provocation on Victory Day, the decision—making centers would be hit. First of all, in Kiev.
Yuri Ushakov stressed that Moscow hopes that it will not have to resort to such measures. Nevertheless, notes were sent to all foreign missions about the need for diplomats to take precautions and leave Kiev. This also applies to civilians, "if, God forbid, they have to respond to the threats of the Zelensky regime," Yuri Ushakov stressed.
Experts warned against being overly optimistic about the truce agreement. It is necessary to prepare for any provocations and the most sophisticated attempts to prevent the celebration of the Great Victory.
— The Ukrainian regime has long been beyond sanity, so you can expect anything from it. For them, there is nothing sacred about the celebration of the Great Victory. Zelensky has effectively eliminated his country from the list of winners. Moreover, he glorifies the army of a country that lost and abandoned this legacy — it's about Germany and Nazism. It's pointless to expect adequate behavior from those who act contrary to logic and common sense," political analyst Dmitry Yelovsky told Izvestia.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan attends a meeting with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky at the European Political Community summit in Yerevan.
In this situation, Russia simply demonstrates that it is not against any peaceful steps, emphasizes Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation. However, an extension of the truce is possible only in the absence of violations on the Ukrainian side, the political scientist added.
"I am sure that this truce will also be disrupted by the Ukrainian side,— he said.
How will the Victory Day Parade take place in the face of the terrorist threat
Security at the Victory Day Parade will be provided at the highest level, the Kremlin promised. However, its program has undergone minor changes: on May 9, military personnel will traditionally be deployed on Red Square, aerobatic aircraft will fly, but there will be no demonstration of military equipment. Suvorov, Nakhimov and cadets will also not take part due to the operational situation. At the same time, participants in a special military operation will march through Red Square.
Foreign leaders also fly to Moscow for the celebrations marking the 81st anniversary of the Victory. The Presidents of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, were among the first to arrive in the Russian capital, and their desire to join the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow became known only day after day.
The Kremlin did not send out official invitations, but verbally invited everyone. The leaders of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Laos, as well as the King of Malaysia and the leadership of Republika Srpska, wanted to come and share the holiday with the people of the Russian Federation. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has also arrived in the capital.
Vladimir Putin even had separate bilateral meetings with the CIS leaders on May 8. Alexander Lukashenko shared the general indignation that some leaders of the states renounce the common memory.
— I still can't get rid of the thought: some of our friends, neighbors, with whom we lived in the same state, for some reason refuse to recognize these holidays. I think the question always arises: why are they doing this? This is our achievement: our ancestors saved not only Europe from the brown plague, but the whole world. It is clear what would have happened to us, and not only to us, if our predecessors had lost this war," the Belarusian leader remarked angrily.
It is very likely that this topic, as well as the conflict with Ukraine, will be raised by Vladimir Putin at a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. He also flew to Moscow for the celebrations, though not without difficulty — Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia closed their airspace for the delegation's transit flight. As a result, the Slovaks reached Moscow through the airspace of the Czech Republic and Germany.
Moreover, some media outlets claimed that Fico intended to convey a message from Vladimir Zelensky to the Russian leader. But upon arriving in Moscow, the prime minister himself said that the main message he intends to convey to the Russian president will be "the need for dialogue." He also expressed confidence that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is nearing an end.
— I think that Fico is mistaken. There are no prerequisites for ending the conflict. This is not the end of the conflict, but an easy respite," Bogdan Bezpalko believes.
Although the transmission of Zelensky's message to Putin can certainly be considered a remarkable gesture, and the proposed three—day ceasefire is a promising step, it is doubtful that this will lead to a significant shift towards resolving the conflict, Said Khan, a professor at Wayne University in Detroit, told Izvestia.
"There are a number of critically important issues that require painstaking negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and it seems that there is currently an impasse on all of them," the American political scientist concluded.
However, on May 9, all attention will be focused not on conflicts, but on how the world should look without them. Victory Day will begin with an official welcoming ceremony for foreign guests, then the leaders will go to Red Square, where a parade will take place. After that, Vladimir Putin, foreign guests and veterans will lay flowers at the Grave of the Unknown Soldier and attend a reception in the Kremlin. In addition, the head of state will have bilateral meetings with high-ranking guests throughout the day.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
