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- On combustible tracks: The Ministry of Energy has not changed the forecast for Urals against the background of oil above $ 100
On combustible tracks: The Ministry of Energy has not changed the forecast for Urals against the background of oil above $ 100
In the spring, oil prices rose sharply amid the escalation in the Middle East, but the authorities did not change their expectations for its value. Despite the fact that Urals is already trading above $100 per barrel, the Ministry of Energy maintained its average price forecast at $59, according to the updated macro forecast of the ministry, which was reviewed by Izvestia. The ministry believes that the impact of the conflict with Iran on the oil market will be temporary, so they keep their estimates low. At the same time, other forecasts have changed significantly: the ruble is expected to be stronger, inflation is above the Central Bank's target, and GDP growth will slow to 0.4%. What will happen to Russians' incomes and why Russian oil is now more expensive than the world standard — in the Izvestia article.
How will the oil price change
The Ministry of Energy has prepared a new draft forecast of socio-economic development for 2027 and the planning period 2028-2029, as well as revised estimates for 2026. Izvestia has the main parameters of the document that the government has reviewed.
At the same time, the ministry did not change the forecast for the Urals price. As in the previous version of the document, prepared in September 2025, the average cost of raw materials in 2026 is expected to reach $59 per barrel.
Previously, such a forecast seemed justified. However, at the end of February, the situation in the oil market changed due to a new round of escalation in the Middle East - the United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran. Against this background, the quotes went up. So, by 16:00 Moscow time on May 11, Brent was trading above $107 per barrel, and Urals — about $111. Russian oil is usually cheaper than the global benchmark, but sometimes the parity changes due to high demand, reduced discount against the background of geopolitical risks and supply disruptions in the global market, experts explain.
Despite the price increase, the Ministry of Energy maintains a conservative forecast.
— Last year, the global economy entered a low oil price phase. According to the price situation, we had a rather disastrous end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026. Now the events in the Persian Gulf have improved the situation somewhat, but this cannot be considered as a long-term factor. $59 per barrel on average per year is a fairly conservative estimate," explained the representative of the Ministry of Economic Development.
According to the ministry's expectations, the Urals price situation will not improve significantly in the coming years, as oil prices will remain at about $50 per barrel for three years.
If the revenues from it turn out to be higher than expected, it is more reasonable to direct them to reducing the treasury deficit and replenishing reserves, rather than revising the budget rule, says Svetlana Frumina, head of the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Otherwise, the budget will again become more dependent on volatile commodity prices.
At the same time, the Ministry of Energy's forecast probably already includes a possible tightening of sanctions against the Russian oil industry, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. In her opinion, this may limit exports and lead to an increase in discounts on Urals.
At the same time, the ministry raised its forecast for Brent to $81 per barrel against $70 in the September version of the document. At the same time, in 2027-2029, the cost of the brand is expected to gradually decrease to $61 per barrel.
What will be the ruble exchange rate in 2026
Despite maintaining the forecast for Russian oil prices, the Ministry of Energy has significantly revised its expectations for the national currency exchange rate. According to the macro forecast, the average dollar exchange rate in 2026 will be 81.5 rubles. For comparison, in the September version of the document, a higher figure was expected — 92.2 rubles. At the same time, the ministry believes that the "American" will continue to rise in price again — in 2027 it may grow to 87.4 rubles.
In practice, the Russian national currency has strengthened even more this year. Since the beginning of 2026, the dollar has fallen in price by almost 5%, and on May 8, the Central Bank's exchange rate was almost 75 rubles.
The strengthening of the national currency this spring was facilitated by the influx of export earnings, which with a delay began to reflect a sharp increase in world prices for Russian goods, explained Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis department at Finam.
The ruble was also supported by a pause in the foreign exchange operations of the Ministry of Finance, Natalia Milchakova believes. According to her, the agency has not conducted operations on the foreign exchange market for two months amid discussions on changes to the budget rule. In May, the Ministry of Finance returned to buying, but this has not yet had a strong impact on the exchange rate.
The ruble remains strong due to rising prices not only for oil, but also for metals, fertilizers and food, said Ilya Fedorov, chief economist at BCS World Investments. He explained: the foreign exchange earnings from these goods enter the market and support the ruble.
In the near future, a moderate reduction in the key rate and continued high oil prices may provide additional support, Natalia Milchakova added.
Why has the economy slowed down and how much will goods rise in price?
In 2026-2029, the Russian economy will continue to grow, but the pace will be noticeably lower than before. According to the forecast, in 2026, GDP will increase by only 0.4%. Estimates for 2027-2028 have also been revised to 1.4% and 1.9%, respectively. More steady growth is expected to begin only in 2029 - by 2.4%. For comparison, the economy grew 4.3% in 2024.
The expected economic growth in 2026 is almost twice as low as last year's level - by the end of 2025, GDP grew by 1%. Such cautious estimates are associated with a decrease in investment by 1.5%, weak growth rates in manufacturing by 1%, and industry by 0.6%, said Olga Belenkaya from Finam. According to the expert, the high key interest rate and the strong ruble continue to put pressure on business, especially in the ferrous metallurgy industry.
In the first quarter, GDP dynamics was negative. This was influenced by the seasonal factor, higher taxes, slower growth in real incomes of the population, high debt burden of businesses and expensive loans, she explained.
According to Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global, a gradual reduction in key and high oil prices will help support the economy. As Izvestia previously wrote, expensive Urals can bring at least 1 trillion additional revenues to the budget.
At the same time, the Ministry of Energy slightly raised its export forecast for 2026 to $442 billion against $431.5 billion in the September version of the document. The estimate for imports remained almost unchanged at $308.7 billion versus the previous $308.5 billion.
In addition, the Ministry has lowered its inflation forecast. If in the autumn it was expected that the price increase by the end of 2026 would be 4%, now the forecast has been raised to 5.2%. According to updated estimates, inflation will return to the Central Bank's target of 4% only next year and then remain near this value until 2029.
At the beginning of the year, inflation accelerated due to tax adjustments, but by May it had slowed to 5.6%, Olga Belenkaya added. According to her, in recent weeks, statistics have shown near-zero price growth, and sometimes a slight deflation. This is facilitated by a strong ruble, a temporary ban on gasoline exports and a decrease in the cost of some vegetables after their sharp rise in price earlier.
At the same time, inflationary risks remain, stressed Svetlana Frumina from the Russian University of Economics. According to her, the pressure on prices will continue to be exerted by rising tariffs, business costs and a possible weakening of the ruble.
How will the incomes of Russians grow
At the same time, real salaries of citizens (adjusted for inflation) will grow by 2.2% this year. Earlier, the September version of the forecast was expected to grow by 2.4%. In the future, the pace will gradually accelerate to 3% by 2029.
At the same time, real cash incomes will grow noticeably slower. In 2026, the Ministry of Energy expects an increase of only 0.8% against 2.1% in the previous forecast. Further growth will be 2.1%, 2.4% and 2.7% in the next three years, respectively.
Previously, household incomes were supported by rapid wage growth and high deposit rates, explained Olga Belenkaya from Finam. So, in 2025, real wages increased by 4.4%, and the profitability of deposits exceeded 20% at the moment. However, now this effect is gradually weakening due to a slowdown in salary increases, lower deposit rates amid lower key rates, and an increase in the tax burden after the introduction of the progressive personal income tax scale.
At the same time, the Ministry of Economic Development improved its unemployment forecast. The agency admits that by the end of the year it may increase slightly, but on average it will amount to 2.4%. At the same time, at the beginning of 2026, the indicator was at a historically low value - about 2.1—2.2%. According to the representative of the ministry, the labor market was influenced by several factors at once, including the development of the platform economy (marketplaces, taxi services and deliveries).
The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, also spoke earlier about the overheated labor market. Back in April, she noted that modern Russia has never faced such a severe shortage of workers. According to her, this greatly affects the dynamics of GDP.
Thus, the Russian economy will continue to grow in the coming years, but at a more restrained pace. It is expected to be supported by a slowdown in inflation, high oil and gas revenues and a gradual reduction in the key interest rate.
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