Blow it up: The United States and Iran raise the stakes in the conflict
The settlement between the United States and Iran has once again swung towards escalation. Tehran accused Washington of disrupting the truce by retaliating. At the same time, the American attacks violate the resolution on the powers of the US president. Russia is concerned about the actions of the United States and Iran and is counting on stable agreements between the parties, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked as well. The UN Security Council is trying to resolve this issue. Moscow and Beijing are calling for the withdrawal of the American-Bahraini "forceful" draft resolution, leaving their joint proposal on the table, Alimov added. Further settlement is also complicated by new Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
A new exchange of blows between Iran and the United States
While Donald Trump was loudly declaring an end to the war, the United States and Iran struck at each other again. The Iranian side accused the United States of attacking an oil tanker, another vessel and civilian areas near the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, the American media, citing officials, wrote about attacks on the ports of Qeshm and Bendar Abbas, which are also located in the strait. In response, Iran's military forces hit three US destroyers.
The Russian side is concerned about the escalation and hopes for a settlement and the development of sustainable agreements between the two countries, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia.
"New strikes by Iran and the United States cannot but worry," the diplomat stressed. — We hope that the dynamics of the negotiation process will still yield some results, and from the beginning we have always advocated an unconditional cessation of violence and a political and diplomatic settlement leading to some kind of stable agreements between Washington and Tehran. Everything that prevents this cannot but cause our concern.
Iran's statement emphasizes that the ships attacked in response to the violation of the ceasefire by the United States. The Americans claim that they acted in self-defense. And Donald Trump even said that no damage was done to the destroyers, but the United States, on the contrary, destroyed all the attackers.
The resumption of strikes against Iran could call into question the 1973 War Powers Act. According to the US Constitution, the right to declare war belongs to Congress, and the president is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The resolution on military powers, in turn, restricts the use of American troops: it is possible only with a declaration of war, special permission from Congress, or in response to an attack on the territory or armed Forces of the United States. The President must stop using the Armed Forces within 60 days if the authority has not authorized it. The conflict began on February 28, and the 60-day deadline expired on May 1.
However, coordination with Congress is really just a formality. For example, in 2011, Barack Obama sent troops to Libya without that. And the current president may not agree on anything at all in matters of war and peace — the congress is under the control of Republicans, who will not limit their own representative, Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, drew attention.
Democrats and other opponents of Trump expectedly accuse him of violating the law, but the presidential administration claims that when the truce was announced in early April, the timer allegedly stopped, and they still have two to three weeks to continue fighting, explained American political scientist Malek Dudakov. But Trump is taking a serious risk. If the case reaches the Supreme Court through the efforts of those who are not indifferent and it recognizes Trump's actions as illegal, Congress has the right to stop financing the military operation. In addition, impeachment may be announced, especially if Republicans lose their majority in Congress after the midterm elections in November.
However, Trump is still dominated by domestic political factors, Dudakov stressed. Since the beginning of the war, fuel prices have almost doubled, and inflation has risen sharply. Therefore, it is unlikely that he will move to the phase of a long-term war, the political scientist concluded. In this case, the Pentagon needs to deploy at least 300,000 troops for a full-fledged invasion, and Trump will not do that, Blokhin says. The parties are at an impasse, the only way out of which is negotiations.
The US president still hopes to resume dialogue, but he is doing it by force anyway, added RIAC expert and orientalist Elena Suponina. He assumes that the Iranians will succumb to pressure and make concessions. If this does not happen, Trump will resort to strikes again, the expert stressed.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Israel's war with Lebanon
It is important to emphasize that Tehran has not responded to Washington's proposal to end the conflict. The American media wrote about a certain memorandum, which was to be followed by a 30-day negotiation marathon. One of the main stumbling blocks, in addition to the desperate desire of the United States to end Iran's nuclear program, remains the Strait of Hormuz. The situation is complicated and sometimes unclear. The media claims that it is still closed to most courts, but some still pass through it without even paying fees. Neither Iran nor the United States has actually opened free passage in practice.
The UN Security Council has tried and is trying to solve the problem of navigation in the most important waterway. Bahrain was one of the main authors and engines of this project. Initially, the country submitted a draft resolution proposing the use of force to unblock Hormuz. This proposal was edited twice, softening the rhetoric, but Russia and China blocked it anyway, offering their own version of the resolution.
"Our draft (Russian—Chinese resolution) is still on the negotiating table,— Alimov told Izvestia. — This is a draft with clear calls for the parties to end the war, refrain from using force and resolve differences at the negotiating table. Some of his passages also relate to the importance of ensuring freedom of navigation. The timing of the decision on the project has not yet been determined.
At the same time, the United States and Bahrain have prepared a joint draft resolution, which, according to media reports, contains a clause on the possibility of imposing sanctions and even using military force if Iran does not stop threatening commercial shipping.
"The American-Bahraini project is also on the negotiating table, which we cannot support," Alimov added. — Now we are calling on the co-authors of the American-Bahraini draft to withdraw it, not to force decision-making on it, because we do not see the potential for this document yet.
One of the conditions for concluding a peace agreement on the part of Iran is the cessation of Israeli strikes on Lebanon. And this point is repeatedly violated. On May 7, the IDF attacked the southern suburbs of Beirut. According to media reports, at least 14 people were killed as a result. This is the first strike on the area since the ceasefire on April 17. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that "terrorists have no immunity," referring to the Lebanese-based Shiite group Hezbollah.
The truce did not last very long, said Elena Suponina. She stressed that now we are talking about the first strikes on Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, but in fact attacks on the south of the country had already been carried out in previous days. At first, the Israelis adhered to the truce in the Lebanese direction, but as soon as the negotiation process between the United States and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz began to falter, Israel decided that their hands were free here, the expert concluded.
As a result, the demands of the parties run into each other. Experts note the stalemate of the situation, when no one can deliver a decisive blow to anyone. The war has stopped only in words, but in reality civilians continue to suffer. According to the Iranian side, at least 1,700 civilians, including at least 254 children, have died since the beginning of the conflict. In Lebanon, about 2.5 thousand people became victims, including more than 100 doctors, 270 women and 170 children. And the death toll continues to rise.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
