Chronic phase: the Russian car market is emerging from an acute crisis

The Russian car market continues to show steady growth, which began at the end of winter. The number of cars sold in April increased by 13% compared to May, and by 15% compared to April last year. At the same time, the market structure changes significantly every month. Izvestia found out what caused the growing interest of Russians in new cars and how long it will last.

"A good leap"

Over the past month, 117,541 new passenger cars were sold in Russia. This is reported by the analytical agency Autostat, based on the number of issued EPTS. This is 15.1% higher than in April 2025 and 12.7% higher than in March this year, experts say. As emphasized during the online conference "Autostat. Dmitry Yarygin, Deputy head of the agency's analytics department, said that the market in the passenger segment has shown a "good jump" over the past two months.

By the end of April, Lada confidently maintained its market leadership (31,848 cars sold) with an almost twofold lead over Haval, which took second place with a score of 16,493 cars. The third position is also held by the Russian brand Tenet (11,986 units), followed by the Chinese Geely (6,788 cars) and the Belarusian Belgee (5,741 cars). Changan (4,542 units), Jaecoo (3,394 vehicles), Jetour (2,869 vehicles), Toyota (2,789 units — all delivered to Russia through alternative channels) and Solaris (2,381 units) also entered the top ten.

It is noteworthy that of the top ten most popular car brands, only two brands showed negative dynamics: Jetour (-9.4%) and Changan (-1.7%). The rest of the automakers were "positive" — the most significant growth compared to April last year was shown by Jaecoo (+74%), Toyota (+70%) and Belgee (+47%).

Lada Granta also confidently dominates the "personal standings" — in April, this model sold 12,442 copies. The second place (7639 units) was taken by the domestic Tenet T7 crossover (formerly Chery Tiggo 7L), which replaced Haval Jolion (6664 cars) on the third step. Vesta holds the fourth position (6064 cars), and Niva Travel holds the fifth position (4570 units). Tenet 4 (known to Russians as Chery Tiggo 4) came in sixth place with a score of 3,438 cars. Sales of the Lada Iskra Tolyatti-St. Petersburg assembly are gradually gaining momentum (3236 cars, seventh place). Completing the top 10 are Haval M6 (3125 cars), Lada Niva Legend (3124 cars) and the future Volga K50 — Geely Monjaro crossover (2553 units).

As Dmitry Yarygin emphasized, the share of models produced at domestic car factories increased in the total sales structure last month. By the end of April, it reached 66%, while in March it was 60%.

Loans are growing, cars are getting more expensive

Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat, explains the spring sales growth for several reasons at once. One of them is the effect of a low base — last year's March and April were frankly disastrous. In addition, the lack of large car stocks at dealers has affected this year. The sales growth was also facilitated by a gradual decrease in the amount of money on deposits, the expert noted.

— People are starting to withdraw money from banks: rates on "long-term" deposits are now less than 10%. They began to realize that they would not be able to make money on deposits, and cars would become more expensive, so they are buying them now," said Sergey Tselikov.

Autostat said that in April, compared with March, the weighted average price for a new car decreased by 5.1% and amounted to 3.36 million rubles. However, this does not mean that cars have become cheaper, but about changes in the sales structure, the agency emphasizes.

— There are fewer expensive premium segment cars being sold. The share of more affordable models is growing in the market structure, which is why the weighted average price is decreasing," said Sergey Tselikov.

The cars themselves are getting more expensive, said Sergey Udalov, Executive Director of Autostat. This can be seen from the ratio of the volume of car loans issued in quantitative and monetary terms, he explained. So, in April, the number of loans for the purchase of a new car increased by 21% compared to last year (in monetary terms by 48%), he said.

The crisis has changed its phase

The April increase in new car sales is a positive trend, but it does not indicate a stabilization of the market situation, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The result would be impressive at the level of 150-200 thousand cars sold, says Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine.

— Of course, it's not bad that sales of new cars are growing. But the current volumes, unfortunately, do not contribute to the renewal of the Russian fleet. On the contrary, the average age of cars in our country is only increasing," he states.

The demand for new cars is traditionally growing in the spring, this is confirmed by long-term observations, recalls auto expert Igor Morzharetto. In previous years, the spring months accounted for up to 40-45% of annual sales, he notes.

— Last year was an exception to this rule. Therefore, the current growth rates of 12-15% are primarily due to the abnormally low results in the spring of 2025," said Igor Morzharetto.

New car sales have increased by a total of 9.6% since the beginning of the year, and the market has been actively growing over the past two months, said Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto. However, it is still impossible to call this trend overcoming the crisis, she believes.

— The crisis has moved from an acute phase to a chronic one, and it is too early to talk about a full recovery of the pre–crisis 1.5-1.7 million cars per year. There is growth, of course, but the market remains highly sensitive to the key interest rate and geopolitics," Irina Frank emphasized in a conversation with Izvestia.

She noted a significant increase in sales of the Jaecoo, Toyota and Belgee brands in April. According to her, the growth of Jaecoo was facilitated by the fact that this Chinese brand managed to occupy a successful niche of "affordable premium" in the crossover segment. As for the Japanese models, their success will be explained by the fact that buyers are tired of the risks associated with little-known brands and are willing to pay a little more for the time-tested Toyota. The joint Belarusian-Chinese project "took off" by giving the market what it lacked after the departure of the "Europeans" and "Koreans": clear European design, Chinese technology and security, but at the same time full local support and the absence of extreme customs risks, Irina Frank said.

A look into the future

As Sergey Tselikov noted, last year was clearly divided into the "bad" first half and the "good" second. There is no such effect this year.

— Apparently, the smooth growth of the market will continue. In May and June, we are likely to be ahead of last year's results. By the middle of summer, the market will reach zero, and then it may even decrease in relation to the results of last year. Overall, the dynamics will be smoother and more predictable," he predicts.

Despite the noticeable increase in new car sales, Autostat still adheres to its previous forecast for the annual volume of the Russian car market: 1.2 million cars under a negative scenario, 1.33 million under a baseline scenario, and 1.46 million units under a positive development in the market.

Igor Morzharetto does not see any particular trends towards a significant increase in indicators by the end of the year. Taking into account 382 thousand cars sold in four months, he predicts that the market volume will remain at the level of 1.2-1.25 million cars.