"Freedom" in action: Will the US and Iran be able to reach a compromise now

Iran and the United States are close to signing a symbolic memorandum on ending hostilities. It is expected that the document will resolve a number of controversial issues and pave the way for a long-term settlement. However, the situation remains precarious and largely uncertain. The White House's decision to temporarily suspend Operation Project Freedom to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz in order to improve the negotiating background did not help to completely defuse the situation. Experts interviewed by Izvestia are confident that the confrontation between Tehran and Washington is still very far away.

"Epic Fury" has achieved its goals

Donald Trump's decision reflects the White House's desire for a gradual curtailment of military activity in the Persian Gulf. On May 1, 2026, the 60-day period for conducting military operations without congressional authorization expired, and the government publicly reported on achieving its goals. As US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted, a line has been drawn under Operation Epic Fury.

But the actual presence of the American contingent at the Iranian borders has decreased slightly. In addition, on May 4, the US Central Military Command (CENTCOM) announced the launch of an operation to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, dubbed Project Freedom.

"US military support includes missile destroyers, over 100 aircraft based on land and at sea, various unmanned platforms and 15,000 military personnel,— CENTCOM said in a statement.

However, less than 48 hours later, the project was scrapped. Officially, at the request of Pakistan and other international mediators. At the same time, the United States, apparently, did not consult with Israel and other Middle Eastern allies, and therefore the news was largely unexpected for Iran's opponents. Trump described the decision as a "serious step" in cooperation with Tehran.

"We have come to a mutual agreement that, although the complete blockade will remain, the Freedom Project will be suspended for a short period of time to see if it is possible to complete [negotiations] and sign an agreement," he wrote on Truth Social.

Washington's decision should be interpreted as an element of a multi-level political and psychological "game," according to political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev.

— By trying to defiantly reduce the degree of tension, the team of US President Trump seeks to simultaneously convince the world community and Tehran itself of its compassion. And also to demonstrate to the Congress that there is no desire to engage in confrontation without a significant reason, while maintaining the intention to defend the foreign policy goals and interests of one's own country," the expert concluded.

The White House has made it clear at least several times that Washington and Tehran have been continuing negotiations all this time. But the interaction was conducted exclusively remotely — the last face-to-face talks in Pakistan were held on April 12. "Now we don't make 18-hour flights every time to see a document. We are negotiating by phone," Trump said.

Will Iran and the United States be able to reach an agreement

The divergence of positions on key issues does not mean that Iran and the United States will not be able to reach an interim compromise. As reported by Axios, citing sources, after the temporary freezing of Operation Project Freedom, Washington and Tehran came close to signing a one-page memorandum on ending the war.

The 14-point document, which is being discussed by the parties through closed channels, should also become the basis for "more detailed and thorough" negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program. The current version of the deal, according to Axios, assumes that Iran undertakes to impose a moratorium on uranium enrichment, the United States will agree to lift sanctions and unfreeze the republic's foreign assets. In addition, both sides will lift restrictions on the transit of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian officials have so far refrained from commenting, partly because many of the conditions set out in the memorandum are preliminary in nature, and there are a significant number of legal loopholes that Washington can exploit to its advantage. For example, the issue of control over Iran's enriched uranium has been deliberately left open. The future of the centrifuges that Tehran has installed at its nuclear facilities is not affected (at least in the editorial, which is operated by Axios).

Even in the event of a diplomatic breakthrough, the likelihood of a resumption of hostilities or the conflict going into a prolonged limbo remains. As well as the risk of increased blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran in response to any unfriendly steps by the United States. In this regard, INF Program Manager Ivan Bocharov believes that the Iranians have found an effective tool for influencing the global economy and are therefore convinced that their negotiating position is much stronger now than it was before the outbreak of hostilities in February 2026.

The Fujairah incident

The short-term escalation around the Emirate of Fujairah (UAE) also had a certain impact on the position of the parties. According to local authorities, on May 4, Tehran attacked an oil tanker of the state-owned Adnoc company located in the Strait of Hormuz, and also fired 12 ballistic missiles and several UAVs towards the emirate.

In addition, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM, said on the same day that Iran allegedly opened fire on American warships and commercial vessels (including a South Korean tanker being escorted).

At the same time, opinions differed about the effectiveness of this action: the United States claimed that CENTCOM-escorted merchant ships had successfully passed through the strait, while Iran denied this and stated that it would forcibly stop tankers violating its restrictions. In furtherance of the latter thesis, the IRGC issued an official warning in which it said that any deviation of ships from the "safe routes" identified by Tehran would entail a "decisive response."

The tension risked quickly escalating into new clashes. However, after lengthy consultations, the Pentagon opted for de-escalation, arguing that the incident near Fujairah was rated "below the threshold" necessary for the resumption of hostilities. At the same time, judging by Trump's nervous reaction, the situation was close to getting out of control, and the US decision not to launch retaliatory strikes was in many ways a gentlemanly gesture.

"They [the Iranians] are playing games. They have to act wisely, because we don't want to invade and kill people — I don't want that, I don't want that — it's too difficult," he told reporters, commenting on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Disagreements over Iran's nuclear program

Despite the fact that the negotiating lists of the United States and Iran include at least a dozen issues related to economic, political and military guarantees, the Iranian nuclear program remains a key focus of the bilateral agenda. Trump has repeatedly stressed that Washington is concerned about Tehran's "dubious and secret work" on uranium enrichment and is interpreted as a threat to national security, and therefore, in further negotiations, the Americans intend to achieve the main result — guarantees that Iran will not acquire nuclear weapons.

Iran's arguments about the peaceful nature of the national nuclear program are perceived by Washington as excuses in order to confuse the interlocutors and gain time to finalize individual components of the nuclear warhead. In addition, the latest assessments of American intelligence, presented to Trump at a closed briefing the other day, do not inspire Republicans with optimism.

According to the CIA report, the time it takes Iran to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts believed that the US-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline by about a year. Intelligence officials are cautiously pushing the White House to believe that in order to significantly slow down Tehran's nuclear program, which the American leader insists on, it may be necessary to destroy or export the remaining reserves of highly enriched uranium. And this is fraught with a new round of escalation.

Nevertheless, the minimum requirements and expectations of the United States from the transformation of Iran's nuclear program do not coincide with the minimum requirements and expectations of Tehran, said Ivan Bocharov, INF program manager, in an interview with Izvestia.

— The Iranians do not want to roll back the nuclear program, because it is already firmly linked to the sovereignty of the country. Serious public concessions on the issue of enriched uranium are also not in the interests of Tehran, as this may later be perceived, including by regional partners, as weakness, the expert concluded.

But the American leadership remains optimistic. In The Hugh Hewitt Show podcast, Trump bluntly stated that the settlement of the US conflict with Iran "will take two to three weeks," and time in this case only plays into Washington's hands, since Iran "lost a lot of things" during the confrontation with the United States.

However, Trump understands that the war with Iran does not enjoy strong public support, so the resumption of hostilities is a problem not only for Tehran, but also for the White House, especially ahead of the congressional elections in November. Nevertheless, a breakdown of the agreements is not excluded, especially given the position of Israel, which clearly relied on a different outcome before launching a military operation against Iran. In a situation of acute confrontation, any provocation can result in renewed strikes, and Pakistan, which is now acting as the main mediator, does not have powerful levers of pressure on either side.