Moment of breakdown: attack on the UAE endangers the Middle East truce

A new round of tension in the Persian Gulf has jeopardized the already fragile Middle East truce. The attack on the oil infrastructure in Fujairah, which, according to the UAE, Iran is behind, coincided with the launch of the American operation Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz and actually opened the way for a new escalation. What is happening reflects the rapid escalation of confrontation between key regional players. Washington is trying to restore shipping and increase pressure on Tehran, while Iran sees these actions as a direct threat to its interests.

Tehran has denied the accusations of an attack on the UAE

The UAE intercepted a new wave of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones on the evening of May 4. According to the Emirati Defense Ministry, the air defense forces repelled attacks by at least 15 missiles and four drones allegedly launched from Iran. One of the drones reached the oil infrastructure in Fujairah, a strategically important hub on the coast of the Gulf of Oman, causing a fire and injuring three foreign workers. For the first time in almost a month, the authorities announced a missile alert, urging residents to take shelter, and several civilian flights bound for the UAE turned around in the air.

Abu Dhabi called the incident a "new act of treacherous aggression" and demanded an immediate end to the attacks. The Emirate of Fujairah is considered a key point of the country's oil logistics, through which a significant share of the world's energy supplies passes.

According to experts, this attack was Tehran's response to the launch of a large-scale US mission to escort and "liberate" commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz — the Americans called the operation "Project Freedom".

Tehran denies the accusations of an attack on the UAE. According to Iranian state television, the country "had no plans and has no plans" to launch attacks on the Emirati territory. The Islamic Republic claims that the incident was the result of the actions of the United States. According to a military source for the Iranian state television and radio company IRIB, the incident is related to the "adventurism of the American military" aimed at ensuring the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington, according to him, should be responsible for what happened.

In fact, the Iranian side claims that it did not launch targeted strikes on the territory of the UAE. According to one version, in the area of active operations (where Tehran could attack American forces and ships involved in Operation Project Freedom), one of the objects or fragments of intercepted weapons could enter the territory of the Emirates.

At the same time, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressed support for the UAE. As noted in the publication of the Saudi agency SPA, he strongly condemned the "unjustified Iranian attacks against the fraternal United Arab Emirates" and stressed that the kingdom is ready to support the UAE in protecting their security. Earlier, the Emirati authorities stated that they reserve the "full and legitimate right" to retaliate.

Escalation between Iran and Arab monarchies

Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, head of the UAE Policy Center and Professor of Political Science, believes that statements about the allegedly forced nature of actions in the Strait of Hormuz do not stand up to criticism, since the very practice of pressure on international transport arteries undermines the foundations of regional stability. In her assessment, the use of the strait as a bargaining tool indicates not a reaction to threats, but a desire to impose their own rules of the game.

— Attempts to consider the Persian Gulf states as platforms for forceful pressure from Iran will inevitably lead to the opposite effect. Such logic will not expand Tehran's influence, but will only provoke a broader and tougher response from regional players and their allies, increasing the risks of further escalation, Ebtesam Al-Ketbi told Izvestia.

The involvement of Israel adds an additional dimension to the crisis. According to Western media, one of the missiles fired towards the UAE was intercepted by its Iron Dome missile defense system located in the Emirates. It is reported that Israel has sent both the system itself and specialists to the UAE to maintain it.

The accusations against Tehran of attacks on the territory of the Emirates at this stage are not supported by a convincing evidence base, according to Iranian international relations expert Hadi Isa Dalul. The Islamic Republic has consistently denied its involvement at the highest level, while there has been no direct confirmation of the launch of ballistic missiles from its territory.

The expert told Izvestia that in the context of a sharp increase in the American military presence in the Persian Gulf, the deployment of Israeli missile defense systems in the UAE and the actual involvement of the Emirates in the anti-Iranian coalition, a new security configuration is being formed, which in itself provokes an increase in tension.

American forces engaged in battle with Iranian units

Recent events have become the most serious escalation since the announcement of the truce. Initially, the parties hoped that the pause would create conditions for a diplomatic settlement, but new incidents demonstrate the fragility of the agreements reached.

In these circumstances, on May 4, the United States officially launched Operation Project Freedom, which President Donald Trump described as a humanitarian mission aimed at helping crews stranded in the Persian Gulf due to the fighting. Washington's attempt to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery of global energy, has caused sharp dissatisfaction with Tehran, which considers these actions as a threat to its strategic interests.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Project Freedom is inherently closer to a coordination system than to a classic military escort operation. Not only military structures are involved in its implementation, but also insurance companies, shipping operators and international partners. The main focus is on the exchange of data on safe routes and the organization of vessel traffic through the Strait.

According to Axios sources, the US Navy does not intend to accompany each vessel directly: warships will be located nearby in order to respond promptly to threats if necessary. In addition, Washington expects to share intelligence about the mine situation and indicate the safest sea corridors. At the same time, according to the Wall Street Journal, Iranian forces, including structures associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have already deployed naval mines in key areas of the Strait, which has severely limited shipping opportunities.

The aggravation quickly turned into a violent phase. The Central Command of the US Armed Forces (CENTCOM) said that US forces clashed with Iranian units that attacked both warships and commercial vessels. According to Admiral Brad Cooper, head of CENTCOM, after the start of the operation, Iran used cruise missiles and drones, but all targets were intercepted. He also said that the US military had destroyed six Iranian boats. In Tehran, in turn, they said that the Iranian military fired warning shots towards the American ships.

In an interview with Fox News, the American leader made harsh statements, not ruling out a military scenario, but at the same time acknowledged that Iran was showing greater flexibility in negotiations and was becoming "more accommodating" due to the blocking of its ports.

Meanwhile, Tehran notes cautious progress in the dialogue. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi confirmed that there has been some progress in negotiations with the United States through the mediation of Pakistan, stressing that current events clearly show the absence of a military solution to the crisis.