They brought it to Kiev: Ukraine was warned about the consequences of provocations on May 9

The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced a truce in honor of Victory Day — in accordance with Vladimir Putin's decision, it will last May 8-9. The Russian army will take all necessary measures to ensure the safety of the festive events, the military department said and warned that it would strike at the center of Kiev in case of provocations. The Federation Council of the Russian Federation expects that Russia's warnings will have a sobering effect on the Ukrainian authorities. However, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that Ukraine is likely to try to disrupt the truce. Vladimir Zelensky, in response to Moscow's initiative, said he wanted to set up a "regime of silence" from midnight on May 6.

The Truce for Victory Day

The Russian Defense Ministry warned that if Ukraine tries to disrupt the celebration on May 9, Russian troops will launch a retaliatory, massive missile attack on the center of Kiev.

"Russia, despite the capabilities we have, has previously refrained from such actions for humanitarian reasons. We warn the civilian population of Kiev and employees of foreign diplomatic missions about the need to leave the city in a timely manner," the ministry said on the evening of May 4.

Russia has never purposefully targeted administrative buildings in the Ukrainian capital before. Moscow hopes that Kiev will take the Defense Ministry's warning seriously. Grigory Karasin, Chairman of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, believes this statement will have a sobering effect on the Ukrainian establishment.

— Nothing goes unpunished. Why should we be calm about the rudeness and terrorism they use against Russia, against its shrines and memory? Therefore, in my opinion, a normal statement, refreshing and sobering. Let's hope that at least May 9th will pass without outright provocations by Ukrainian nationalists. Because this is already becoming some kind of international alarm signal. Let's hope that this doesn't happen," he told Izvestia.

The statement by the Ministry of Defense followed Vladimir Zelensky's threats at the European Political Community summit in Armenia on May 4. He bluntly stated that Ukrainian drones could appear at the Victory Day Parade in Moscow.

The defense Ministry did not specify exactly how the Russian Federation could react. The expert community does not rule out that we may be talking about the use of the Oreshnik missile system (Moscow had previously used it in combat conditions at least twice).

— At the same time, we are armed with a large range of missiles, both ballistic and cruise. There are also hypersonic types of "Dagger". All of them can be involved," military expert Vasily Dandykin told Izvestia.

The Russian Defense Ministry also said that, in accordance with President Vladimir Putin's decision, a truce in honor of Victory Day is being declared on May 8-9.

Shortly after the announcement of the Russian initiative, Vladimir Zelensky said that Kiev had not received official proposals on the terms of the ceasefire. And immediately announced his own plans to introduce a "silence regime", but earlier — from midnight on May 6. And he promised that the Ukrainian side is ready to act in a mirror manner, "starting from the specified moment."

— There is also an information and propaganda confrontation going on here. Neither side would like to act as a non-willing truce. But at the same time, we must understand that in both cases we are talking about a humanitarian action, that is, not something that can somehow influence the course of further hostilities or stimulate negotiations. Unfortunately, so far these are one-time actions, which, of course, are still important in themselves, but I repeat, there is unlikely to be any radical impact on the course of further confrontation," Andrei Kortunov, an expert at Valdai, explained in a conversation with Izvestia.

The analyst noted that Kiev is trying to seize the initiative and show that Ukraine is also striving for peace, so that US President Donald Trump would respond favorably to this.

— The Ukrainian country would like to draw attention to them too. So that both partners and donors could appreciate such a peaceful step on the part of the Ukrainian leadership," he explained.

Kiev will try to disrupt the truce

The initiative for a truce, timed to coincide with Victory Day, was announced during the last telephone conversation between the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States on April 29. According to Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, Donald Trump positively assessed the Easter truce announced by Russia from April 11 to 12. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the Ukrainian army violated it more than 6.5 thousand times. The military continued to launch drone and artillery strikes against Russian positions and civilian targets in the border areas of the Belgorod and Kursk regions, the ministry said.

Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that this time, provocations from Ukraine should be expected.

— Most likely, the threat of a strike on the center of Kiev will not deter the Zelensky regime from new provocations. The Ukrainian leadership is trying to force us to take disproportionately harsh measures, using its own population as a human shield," said Oleg Karpovich, head of the Department of the MGIMO Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

According to him, attempts to disrupt the Victory Day Parade can be prevented only as a result of external influence, both from the United States and from individual European countries, recalling that Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico planned to visit Moscow.

— For Ukraine, this can be a convenient excuse to actualize the issue of conflict in the international arena and demonize Russia. It should be understood that Ukraine can resort to any provocations in order to continue to hold the attention of its Western partners," says Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. — It should also be understood that Ukrainian provocations do not affect the positions of Western countries and, as a result, will not be condemned.

Russia has repeatedly stated that it is not interested in truces, but in eliminating the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis, including the West's rejection of NATO's expansion to the East. Vladimir Putin called the protection of people in Donbas from the genocide carried out by the Ukrainian authorities there since 2014 the main goal of the start of the SVR.

At the same time, by declaring a truce on May 8 and 9, Russia is sending a clear signal to its partners and Western countries, said Oleg Lyakhovenko, a senior researcher at the Faculty of Political Science at Lomonosov Moscow State University.

— The Victory Day truce initiative is a tribute to our ancestors who won victory in the Great Patriotic War, a reference to the common ground of our countries. But this is by no means a unilateral concession that the other side intends to use to its advantage. Therefore, the signal is very clear: if there are any unfriendly steps, attempts to disrupt the truce, or even more so to commit demonstrative acts of terrorism and intimidation of the Russian population, the response will be prompt and as serious as possible," he said.

In fact, our opponents were reminded not to confuse kindness with weakness, the expert concluded.