How to sail: US actions in the Strait of Hormuz undermine the peace process
The US operation to ensure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz may complicate the negotiation process with Iran, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The American Central Command reported the passage of two merchant ships, but the Iranian media reported an attack on a US ship — Washington denied this information. According to analysts, both sides retain the potential for a military clash in the region.
How will the US actions in the Strait of Hormuz affect the peace process
The US actions in the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a new round of tension and complicate the dialogue with Tehran.
"For Iran, this is not a humanitarian mission, but an attempt to establish control over a strategic route and impose its own rules," said Hadi Isa Dalul, an expert on international relations.
According to him, such steps reduce the space for compromise and increase the risk of disruption of negotiations amid growing military activity.
On May 3, US President Donald Trump announced the launch of Operation Project Freedom, calling it a humanitarian measure. According to him, some of the vessels are blocked in the region and need help. He stressed that any interference in this mission could lead to a violent response.
The Central Command of the US Armed Forces (CENTCOM) clarified that the operation includes the participation of guided missile destroyers, aircraft, unmanned systems and about 15 thousand military personnel.
In turn, Ali Abdollahi, commander of the central headquarters of the Iranian armed forces, Khatam al-Anbiya, warned that any foreign forces in the Strait of Hormuz could be attacked.
Moroccan political analyst Kareh Abu Salem told Izvestia that the US actions are already perceived by Tehran as a violation of the spirit of the truce, which directly affects the prospects of the negotiation process. According to him, in the current conditions, the Iranian leadership is becoming much less inclined to make concessions, both on the nuclear program and on regional security issues.
The expert emphasizes that instead of forming the minimum level of trust necessary to resume dialogue, Washington is actually strengthening the positions of the hard wing inside Iran.
The new US operation can be interpreted as an attempt to raise the stakes and exert additional pressure, creating a constant threat off the coast of the republic, says orientalist Leonid Tsukanov.
"Trump does not hide the fact that Washington intends to continue betting on a long—term naval blockade in order to force Tehran to negotiate on its own terms," he said. — At the same time, the parties have not yet moved into a state of large-scale escalation, preferring to exchange only public threats.
According to the expert, the operation can also be used to covertly concentrate US forces off the coast of Iran. And Tehran is trying to stop this threat by building up defensive forces in coastal areas.
On May 4, as part of Operation Freedom Project to restore navigation, civilian vessels began crossing the Strait of Hormuz, CENTCOM said.
"The US military is actively contributing to efforts to restore commercial transportation. As a first step [in Operation Freedom Project], two U.S.—flagged merchant vessels successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz and are safely continuing their journey," the statement said.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defense of the United Arab Emirates reported that three missiles were intercepted over the country's airspace, and another munition fell into the sea. At the same time, the state television and radio company of Iran reported, citing a senior military representative of the country, that the Islamic Republic had no plans to attack the UAE.
"Iran has not had and does not have plans to launch attacks on the UAE," a military source said.
In anticipation of the mass departure of tankers from the ports of the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which may take place in the near future, it is likely that the grouping of the United States will intensify, suggested military expert Dmitry Kornev.
— A variety of electronic warfare systems will be used, attempts will be made to blind the Iranian radars, respectively, to minimize its ability to control the maritime situation. In addition, the United States will monitor and monitor the ground situation using unmanned vehicles," he explained.
Tehran is capable of seriously complicating the movement of ships through the strait, military expert Yuri Lyamin believes.
— Even limited strikes on individual vessels can create a fear effect. It is enough to show that the United States is unable to guarantee security," he said.
According to him, it is not necessary to destroy the vessels for this — it is enough to cause minor damage to them.
Further developments will largely depend on how far the parties are willing to go, the expert added.
Earlier, the Fars news agency reported that the Iranian Navy attacked an American ship that tried to pass through the strait, ignoring warnings. According to the agency, two missiles hit the ship, which prevented it from continuing to move and was forced to turn around.
CENTCOM has denied this information.
How can the United States ensure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz
To ensure the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the United States could arrange for ships to be on duty or provide escorts, Dmitry Kornev said.
"For this, the United States has combat units — destroyers, universal ships that could conduct combat operations against any floating or flying objects," he explained.
The expert noted that the United States will cover the operation from the air, for which, probably, one or two AWACS long–range radar detection aircraft will be on duty in the sky.
—In addition, F-15 and F-18 aircraft with APKWS missiles are likely to be used to destroy drones and small—sized aircraft, including reconnaissance ones," Kornev said. — The F-35 could take over the coordination of actions and the fight against possible cruise missiles and aircraft of Iran.
Military expert Yuri Lyamin suggested that the United States would most likely not deploy naval forces into the Strait of Hormuz, limiting itself to escorting ships from the air.
"They may try to use Reaper MQ—9 drones, A-10 attack aircraft, and other manned and unmanned vehicles to cover merchant ships," the expert said.
How can Iran respond to escalation
Iran has sufficient capabilities to respond to the United States, Dmitry Kornev said.
— He has Shahed-type drones at his disposal. Probably, their more advanced modifications can be guided in real time and track moving objects such as ships," he noted.
Tehran also has anti-ship missiles on the coast, which allow it to control the Strait of Hormuz, the expert added. He also has high-speed manned and unmanned boats.
"It is possible to use ballistic missiles against large ships of the American group," the expert suggested. — Of course, if something like this happens, it may cause an escalation of the conflict.
At the same time, Tehran is probably aware of the risks of a large-scale clash, but it may launch limited strikes to demonstrate the vulnerability of the American operation.
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