Iran of Discord: How the US-EU conflict threatens Europe's security
The Middle East crisis has exacerbated the differences between the United States and the European Union. Brussels' refusal to directly support Washington has caused considerable irritation to the administration of Donald Trump. This time, the discontent spilled over to Berlin. The White House has changed its mind about deploying a battalion equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles in Germany, and also announced plans to significantly reduce the contingent in Germany: about 5,000 troops are expected to leave the country by the end of the year. How these steps threaten European security is described in the Izvestia article.
Without American support
The decision to deploy Tomahawk systems in Germany was one of the last foreign policy steps of the Joe Biden administration. In the summer of 2024, the White House announced plans to send long-range firepower to Germany. The package was to include multi-purpose SM-6 missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons under development, which, as noted in the statement, would "have a significantly longer range than current ground-based systems in Europe."
However, now the Pentagon is curtailing these plans. The United States not only refuses to provide Berlin with the promised systems, but also intends to withdraw at least 5,000 troops from Germany. "We are going to significantly reduce [the size of the military contingent] and will reduce it by much more than 5,000," warned the American leader Donald Trump.
It is still unknown whether these forces will be returned to the United States. Warsaw has already offered to deploy troops withdrawn from Germany on its territory. Polish Deputy Defense Minister Pawel Zalewski confirmed that such negotiations are underway, but the final decision remains with the Pentagon.
The steps towards Berlin were taken against the background of Trump's quarrel with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The German leader reproached the White House for the lack of a "convincing strategy" in the war against Iran, and the American president in response suspected Berlin of supporting the Iranian nuclear program. "He works really badly. He has problems with immigration, problems with energy, he has all possible problems," the head of the White House added, commenting on the Chancellor's actions.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz
Despite the public conflict, Merz is trying to smooth out the rough edges and separate personal differences with Trump from security decisions. According to him, the US refusal to deploy long-range systems has nothing to do with their discussion.
"The Americans currently lack [Tomahawk missiles] themselves. Objectively, there is practically no way to transfer military systems of this kind from the United States," the German Chancellor explained. At the same time, he made it clear that Berlin does not consider this issue definitively closed, and expressed the hope that "the train has not left yet."
However, the rift between the allies is becoming more and more apparent. Trump has already threatened to withdraw the US military from two more NATO countries — Italy and Spain. French President Emmanuel Macron also suffered: due to Paris' refusal to join the US operation in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said that the French leader was "still recovering from a blow to the jaw" from his wife.
As a result, over several months of fighting in the Middle East, the White House quarreled with almost all the leading countries of the European Union. The criticism even affected the Vatican: Pope Leo XIV condemned the war in Iran, after which he faced criticism from the US president.
The American umbrella is in question
Although Trump's statements may sound harsh, some of his claims are well-founded. Europe has been saving on defense for decades, using the American security umbrella. The money saved went to social programs, infrastructure, and maintaining a high standard of living.
For comparison: Four years ago, EU countries spent about 1.5% of their GDP on defense, while the United States spent about 3.4%. After the events of 2022, these costs increased by almost 80%, said the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. But this is still not enough: the main holes in European security are still being closed by the United States.
— By and large, three quarters of NATO is the United States: with its money, military bases, technology and weapons. We have seen from the example of the war with Iran that the United States has such a serious military potential that no other European country has," said Nikolai Topornin, political scientist, associate professor of the Department of European Law at MGIMO.
After Donald Trump came to power in the United States, the EU is increasingly talking about reducing dependence on America. Last year, Ursula von der Leyen announced a plan to rearm Europe with a total cost of €800 billion. She noted that Europe is living in the "most dangerous time" and must "take greater responsibility for its own security."
At the same time, programs for the development of long-range weapons are being discussed in Brussels. At the same time, European countries have their own analogues of long-range missiles: first of all, the British Storm Shadow and the French SCALP. Germany also has its own developments, although they are designed for a shorter range.
However, it would be an exaggeration to talk about Europe's complete dependence on American systems, Natalia Eremina, professor of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University, told Izvestia.
According to her, the reduction of the American contingent is also unlikely in itself to radically change the balance of power. The number of US troops in Germany has varied before: at its peak, it was about 40 thousand people. Therefore, a reduction to 35,000 or 30,000 does not look critical from the point of view of the overall defense configuration of NATO.
The real reasons
There is no military threat to the EU countries, Nikolai Topornin emphasized in a conversation with Izvestia. According to him, the talk that after the end of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia could allegedly reach the borders of the EU and threaten the Baltic States or Finland is largely used to inflame the atmosphere.
— Such statements do not stand up to criticism. The military and some politicians proceed from their own interests: the military is always interested in more money going to the military sector, and military—industrial complex companies too. Therefore, they maintain a certain hysteria and inflate the atmosphere in order to receive dividends for themselves," the expert noted.
However, in his opinion, a representative of the Republican Party may again become the next president of the United States. Therefore, Brussels needs its own program of action.
— Now this process is at the very beginning of the way. But, as they say, it's a bad start. The military-industrial complex is not so easy to restart and pump up money — it takes time. But when the process gets underway, then we can talk about the growth of the defense capability of the entire European flank of NATO," Topornin explained.
Political scientist Natalia Eremina sees another aspect of this. Against the background of the rift with the United States, more and more defense programs are appearing in the European Union, and each country is striving to take its place in them.
Cooperation between the Baltic States and Northern Europe is particularly active. In addition, the European Union already has structures dealing with defense and security issues, including the cybersecurity center and PESCO. Plans for the production of long-range missiles, military equipment, unmanned systems and space technologies are also being discussed.
— Funds for these areas are distributed from the general budget and sent to manufacturers in different EU countries. Germany intends to actively participate in obtaining these resources, as it has developments in several areas at once. We are talking not only about missiles, but also about equipment related to combat operations, as well as space technologies," the political scientist said.
At the same time, for Berlin, this is not only a matter of security, but also a way to support the economy, save jobs and strengthen its status as one of the key players in Europe.
— Current conversations about security are also helping Germany overcome post-war constraints and talk more and more actively about returning to the role of a major military power. After the Second World War, the military strengthening of Germany remained a politically sensitive topic for a long time, but now Berlin is increasingly declaring the need to expand its defense capabilities," the expert concluded.
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