Vicious friend: The EU is trying to support Pashinyan a month before the elections

A sharp rapprochement with the European Union will hit Armenia's economy, experts interviewed by Izvestia said. The reorientation of exports from the EAEU to European markets threatens to hit winemakers and agricultural producers. The EU–Armenia summit kicked off in Yerevan on May 4. French President Emmanuel Macron, who positions himself as the republic's main partner in the West, also arrived in the country on a state visit. EU leaders are trying to strengthen support for Nikol Pashinyan's party ahead of the parliamentary elections to be held on June 7. How the country reacts to this is in the Izvestia article.

EU–Armenia Summit

For the first time in history, the EU and Armenia are holding a joint two-day summit. Dozens of representatives from European countries and their partners arrived for the meeting in Yerevan, where the eighth summit of the European Political Community (ENP) was held in parallel on May 4. Formally, the EU–Armenia summit is dedicated to the rapprochement between Yerevan and Brussels. But in terms of time, it coincided with the moment when parliamentary elections are about to be held in the republic. Voting in the country's legislature will take place on June 7, and in these circumstances, it is important for the Armenian authorities to show that they still have the support of influential Western states.

"We know that we have friends in the European Union that we can rely on," Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said at the opening ceremony of the Belgian Embassy in Yerevan.

France and President Emmanuel Macron, who arrived in the country on May 3, are apparently one of the main Armenian "friends." The leaders not only took an evening walk through the center of Yerevan, but also had an informal conversation. Nikol Pashinyan escorted the guest directly to the hotel. A grateful Macron later praised Pashinyan for no longer treating the republic as a "satellite of Russia," as it was in 2018, when "Nikol organized the Velvet revolution."

"President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Yerevan provides an opportunity to strengthen the historical friendly relations between France and Armenia," the French Embassy in Moscow told Izvestia. — It is taking place in continuation of the summit of the European Political Community in Yerevan, which also marks a new stage of rapprochement between Europe and Armenia.

In addition to the French President, as well as the leaders of Britain and Poland, Keir Starmer and Donald Tusk, the Brussels elite arrived in Armenia — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa. The latter called Pashinyan a politician who is moving along a "brave path," noting that the EU is ready to work with Armenia "against external interference and disinformation."

By the way, back in late April, the European Union announced the establishment of the EUPM Armenia civil partnership mission, aimed at combating "malicious influence" from outside. The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, rightly noted: "The mission, which in words is going to fight against some kind of interference in the affairs of a sovereign state, is itself an instrument of such interference."

A few days before the ENP summit, six opposition parties — the Republican Party of Armenia, Heritage, ARF Dashnaktsutyun, Prosperous Armenia, the Armenian National Congress and the Democratic Party of Artsakh — published an open letter to the EU leadership and participants in meetings in Yerevan with the thesis that holding a large—scale international forum a month before the elections - This is a direct support for the current government. The opposition accused Pashinyan of creating a "false democratic image" for the international community amid the arrests and political trials.

Meanwhile, the internal political situation in Armenia remains tense. In April, 14 people from the largest opposition party "Strong Armenia", led by Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, were detained in the republic. He was arrested in June 2025 after he accused the authorities of campaigning against the Armenian Apostolic Church. According to the latest MPG/Gallup poll, 14.1% of voters are ready to vote for a "Strong Armenia." Pashinyan's Civil Contract party is in first place with 26.7%. At the same time, a significant proportion of undecided people in the country — according to various studies, up to 25%.

Consequences of Yerevan's rapprochement with the EU

Presenting his party's election program, Nikol Pashinyan earlier noted that in recent years Yerevan has taken a number of concrete steps towards strengthening ties with the European Union: an EU civilian mission has been operating along the eastern borders since 2023, the Sustainability and Growth program was launched in 2024, and a law on At the beginning of the accession process, a dialogue on visa-free travel was initiated and a strategic partnership program was signed. The comprehensive Agreement between Armenia and the European Union has been in force since 2018.

During a meeting with Pashinyan on April 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that the republic's desire to join the EU is incompatible with its membership in the EAEU.

— We understand that any country seeks maximum benefits from cooperation with third countries, but it should be obvious, it should be honest, it should be said in advance, as they say, on the shore. Being in the customs union with the European Union and the EAEU is impossible. This is simply impossible by definition," the Russian leader said.

At the same time, the Armenian authorities recognize that their country will not be able to simultaneously be a member of both the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which it joined in 2015. According to Pashinyan, cooperation in both directions will continue as long as "integration into the European Union and trade relations in the EAEU remain compatible with each other."

Europe has an obvious advantage from Armenia's pro-Western turn. The EU is interested in strengthening its own position in a region with great energy transit opportunities and strategic junctions between Europe, Russia, Turkey and Iran, Nadezhda Kapustina, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.

The goal of the EU and the West as a whole is not only to consolidate Turkey's influence in the region, but also to support Turkey's influence in it, Hayk Khalatyan, head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Studies and Initiatives in Yerevan, said in a conversation with Izvestia. According to him, Ankara is becoming a leading player in the region precisely with the active support of the EU and the United States. Turkey's influence in the South Caucasus is more beneficial for the West, as it means weakening the positions of Russia and Iran, the expert added.

Russia has a military base in Armenia, and the inclusion of Yerevan in the EU's orbit gives Europe the opportunity to blackmail Russia, added Leonid Tkachenko, professor at St. Petersburg State University. The expert emphasizes that if Moscow decides to remove the object from the territory of the republic, it will become like Libya or Iraq, a state surrounded by enemies, but there is no stability inside. Tkachenko stressed that Armenia also has no economic advantages from its orientation towards Europe. According to him, the republic will not be able to redirect the key items of current agricultural exports, in particular wine and mineral water, in a short time.

In 2020-2021, the European Union promised Armenia large investments and economic support, Khalatyan added. However, judging by the experience of other post-Soviet countries, the EU does not have the desire and opportunity to fully replace Russia in the economic sphere, the expert stressed. According to him, relations with the European Union are important for Yerevan, but holding a summit now, when the EU is actually preparing for war with Russia, is a rash decision that does not proceed from the interests of Armenia itself, Khalatyan believes.

By the way, the trade turnover of the republic with the EAEU in 2025 amounted to over $8 billion. This is about 38.5% of its foreign trade. The volume of trade turnover with the European Union in the same year amounted to $2.81 billion, which is slightly more than 13%.

In foreign media, Armenia is compared to Moldova and Georgia. However, the EU is not negotiating the republic's membership. Moreover, Armenia does not have the status of a candidate for membership. According to the country's Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan, the republic is not planning EU membership yet. The National Assembly also stated that the country would not join the European Union in either 2026 or 2027.