Overdue market: a quarter of Russian bonds are at risk
Almost 25% of the bond market was at risk of default, experts interviewed by Izvestia estimated. Against the background of expensive loans and VAT increases, companies are increasingly unable to cope with debts, and investors risk not receiving income on securities this year. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, 11 technical defaults occurred (some of which outgrew full-fledged ones), which is half the figure for the entire past year. The most vulnerable issuers are from fuel retail, logistics, and development. Why, at the same time, it cannot be said that the bond market is in crisis, what will happen to it next and how not to lose money — in the material of Izvestia.
Why the risks of defaults have increased
The risks in the bond market have moved from a hidden phase and in some cases have become obvious, according to Egor Zinoviev, an analyst at Cifra Broker. He clarified: in the first quarter, 11 technical defaults were recorded, some of which have already developed into full-fledged ones. According to the expert, about 25% of the market is currently in the high-risk zone. Maria Romantsova, Managing Director for Debt Capital Markets at Finam, and Georgy Ostapkovich, Research Director at the HSE Center for Market Research, also named a similar figure. The latter clarified: at the same time, it is difficult to name the exact range of issues for which companies risk not paying bond yields.
The main reason is the cost of refinancing. Companies that previously borrowed at 13-15% are now forced to re-credit at higher rates, explained Egor Zinoviev.
The situation is aggravated by the so-called repayment wall. In 2026, the business will have to return from 5 to 6.6 trillion rubles to investors, the analyst added. This increases the burden on cash flows and increases the likelihood of failures.
By the end of this year, the number of defaults may increase by another 10-15% compared to 2025, Maria Romantsova believes. According to her, we are no longer talking about one-time problems, but about a systemic trend.
A more optimistic assessment is shared by financial advisor and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. According to him, up to 20% of issues may be at risk by the end of the year. At the same time, the risks are now mainly concentrated in companies with a B rating (companies with high sensitivity to crises), but there is a possibility that the risks will shift to higher groups.
Statistics confirm the deterioration of the situation. If in 2024 there were 11 technical defaults, in 2025 their number increased to 24. And in just three months of 2026, 10-11 new cases have already occurred, some of which have become full-fledged.
For example, EuroTrans has delayed payments on its bonds three times since the beginning of 2026. And if the first two failures occurred for technical reasons (at least that's what the company explained), then in the last episode the organization was unable to buy back its securities from investors on time due to lack of available funds. After that, the Moscow Exchange transferred Eurotrans bonds to a high-risk zone, and their price dropped to 30-40% of face value.
A similar situation occurred in Monopoly JSC — in January 2026, the company defaulted, including on a 3 billion issue due to a shortage of working capital. JSC "Veratek" and LLC "SibAvtoTrans" also had failures on obligations. Izvestia sent them a request.
At the same time, the volume of refinancing of bond debt in 2026 is about twice as high as a year earlier. This increases competition for liquidity and increases the risks of non-payments, said Tatiana Klyueva, Associate Director for Corporate Ratings at Expert RA agency.
The risks of a further increase in defaults remain high, Alexey Rodin added. According to him, with high rates and limited access to financing, problems can affect not only weak players, but also issuers with BBB ratings (the lower tier of the investment grade), regardless of the industry.
The editorial board sent a request to the Central Bank.
Which companies are at risk
Companies with a high debt burden and a short borrowing horizon remain the most vulnerable, experts say. First of all, we are talking about the segment of high–yield bonds and businesses with net debt above 3.5-4 EBITDA. Investors should be particularly careful in fuel retail, logistics and development, says Egor Zinoviev from Digital Broker.
The ratio of net debt to EBITDA shows how well the company is credited and able to service its obligations. A level up to 2-3 is considered comfortable, above 3-4 already signals risks, and values above 4 indicate a high probability of problems with payments.
Small and medium-sized businesses are primarily at risk, says Maria Romantsova from Finam. According to her estimates, 5-7% of borrowers have debt costs that already exceed operating profit. In other words, they actually work in negative territory and become the first candidates for default.
— Companies with high debt burden, weak cash flow and low transparency are the most vulnerable. It is the set of these factors that is more important for an investor now, rather than the big name of the issuer," said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
What factors influence the market
Additional pressure on the market is exerted by VAT adjustments of up to 22% and weak consumer demand, experts noted.
The key factor is the high cost of funding, says Konstantin Borodulin, Managing Director of the NRA. Expensive loans constrain both current activities and investments.
— At the same time, banks are tightening credit conditions, and a slowdown in demand reduces revenue. This leads to liquidity gaps and an increase in the debt burden," he said.
According to Tatiana Klyueva from Expert RA, even despite the reduction in the key interest rate, debt servicing remains expensive — new loans replace cheaper old ones, which increases companies' interest costs.
Ships and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Musandam
The situation is also aggravated by external factors, financial adviser Alexey Rodin added. In particular, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has led to increased logistics costs. This also affected the fuel retail (primarily gas stations), where profitability has fallen amid rising prices for raw materials due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The market does not expect a rapid improvement in the situation. Rates are falling slowly, and liquidity is limited, which will determine the dynamics of defaults in 2026, said Alexander Guschin, senior director of the corporate ratings group at ACRA.
How will the market develop
According to Vladimir Chernov of Freedom Finance Global, the bond market will remain "two—speed" in the coming months. Strong players will continue to operate normally, while weak players will face expensive or inaccessible financing, the risk of defaults and falling investor interest.
— In 2025, individuals bought corporate bonds worth a record 1.3 trillion rubles, which means there is liquidity in the market. But for weak companies, the refinancing window remains expensive," he noted.
Additional risks are generated by geopolitics. The worsening conflict in the Middle East may accelerate inflation and slow down the reduction in interest rates, which will complicate conditions for borrowers, added Tatiana Klyueva from Expert RA.
At the same time, the share of full—fledged defaults remains low - less than 1% of the market. Large companies with high ratings remain stable, said Konstantin Borodulin from the NRA.
How can investors protect their money
The bond market is not in crisis, but it is experiencing a period of increased credit risks, experts agree. In these circumstances, it is important for investors not to pursue profitability, but to carefully evaluate the quality of issuers and the portfolio structure.
And they are already changing their strategy. They are increasingly choosing bonds with a rating above A+ and government securities, said Maria Romantsova from Finam.
The bulk of the portfolio — at least 80% — should be held in securities with A rating of A or higher, advised Egor Zinoviev from Digit Broker. Profitability at the level of 16-17.5% in this segment is now optimal in terms of risk and profit ratio, he explained. The analyst also added that one issuer should not account for more than 5-7% of investments.
The main thing is to avoid emotional decisions and not react to short—term negativity, added Lyudmila Rokotianskaya, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments. According to her, the key strategy is diversification.
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