Defect of freedom: US operation in Hormuz will increase tensions with Iran

The launch by the United States of Operation Freedom Project in the Strait of Hormuz, officially declared as a humanitarian mission to remove stranded commercial vessels, may become a new factor of tension in the region. Despite the declared goal of helping thousands of sailors and restoring navigation, Washington's initiative provoked a harsh reaction from Tehran. The media has already reported that two missiles were fired at an American warship trying to move through the strait, although the United States does not confirm this information. Experts interviewed by Izvestia are confident that the United States is unlikely to be able to achieve its stated goals without direct coordination with Iran. At the same time, the negotiation process between them was already at an impasse.

The United States launches an operation in Hormuz

On May 4, the United States officially launched Operation Project Freedom. President Donald Trump said that it is of a humanitarian nature and is designed to help the crews who are stuck in the Persian Gulf due to the fighting.

The American leader stressed that the United States is ready to "safely conduct" the vessels so that they can continue their work. At the same time, he warned that any attempts to interfere with the operation would be suppressed by force. At the same time, the details of the initiative's implementation remain limited: neither the exact format of interaction with commercial vessels nor the degree of military involvement in escorting are officially disclosed. According to the Central Command of the US Armed Forces (CENTCOM), the Americans will involve 15,000 military personnel and more than 100 aircraft in the operation.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Project Freedom is more of a coordination mechanism than a classic escort operation. It involves not only the military, but also insurance companies, shipping organizations and foreign partners. The main focus is on collecting and transmitting information on safe routes, as well as on coordinating the movement of ships through the Strait.

Axios sources note that the US Navy will not necessarily directly accompany each vessel: warships are planned to be kept close to prevent attacks or respond promptly to incidents if necessary. In addition, the American side intends to share intelligence on the mining situation and indicate the safest sea corridors, including areas not affected by possible mining. According to the Wall Street Journal, Iranian forces, including structures associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have deployed naval mines in key sections of the strait. This significantly limited the possibilities of navigation.

According to industry sources, only about 15 vessels have crossed the Strait in the last five weeks. Most of them used the northern corridor in the area of Larak Island, which is under the control of the Iranian forces. Market participants reported that significant fees are charged for passing through this route. At the same time, attacks were carried out on about 25 commercial vessels in the Strait area.

According to various estimates, from several hundred to 2,000 commercial vessels with about 20,000 sailors on board are blocked in the region. Many crews are experiencing problems with food, water and medicines.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has remained extremely tense for the third month now. The narrow waterway, through which about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil supplies passed before the conflict began, was effectively blocked. Disruption of logistics chains is putting pressure on global energy and shipping markets.

The Americans' involvement will not make the passage safe

However, Washington's initiative is unlikely to achieve its goals. These include unblocking a key global oil trade route, restoring freedom of navigation, and reducing tensions in the region. The Joint Command of the Iranian Armed Forces stated that any attempts to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without coordination with the Iranian side would be considered a threat. They noted that foreign forces, primarily the United States, may be attacked if they approach the water area.

Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya central headquarters, clarified that the actions of the US military would be perceived as aggression. Iran will also regard the possible intervention as a violation of the previously announced ceasefire, which was supposed to create conditions for negotiations.

The Iranian Fars news agency reported that two missiles were fired at an American warship trying to move through the strait after warnings from the Iranian military about a ban on passage. At the same time, CENTCOM denied this information.

Tehran considers the Strait of Hormuz as a space under its influence, and it is he who sets the rules for passage through it, Lebanese political analyst Ali Rizzk noted in an interview with Izvestia. Without a political agreement with Iran, it is impossible to ensure the stable and predictable functioning of navigation through the strait, and this, he believes, is well understood both in European capitals and in Asian countries that depend on energy supplies through this route.

The Strait of Hormuz is a passage only 33-39 km wide at its narrowest point, completely under the control of Iran and the IRGC. As noted by Kostas Karatanos, chief operating officer of the Greek company GasLog, even the participation of the United States in escorting it does not guarantee security. According to him, assistance from the Western military, on the contrary, can make ships a more visible and attractive target for IRGC attacks. This calls into question the effectiveness of the proposed scheme, especially in the absence of clear rules for interaction with the Iranian side.

Shipping companies are well aware of this. Even if the first ships leave under the American umbrella, there will be no massive return of commercial traffic. Insurers also refuse to cover the risks of passage without guarantees from Tehran. Back in March, leading insurance companies withdrew military coverage for the entire region, and even now, under the fragile truce, commercial insurance remains either unavailable or prohibitively expensive.

Iraqi analyst Safaa al-Assam believes that the practical effectiveness of the initiative of the American administration raises serious doubts. According to him, the lack of direct coordination with Tehran significantly limits the chances of a sustainable implementation of the project and makes it a political signal rather than a working mechanism to ensure the safety of navigation.

— Washington's approach will not reduce tensions, but on the contrary, it can provoke a new cycle of incidents in the region. The only sustainable option remains a diplomatic process involving all key parties, including the development of mutual security guarantees," the expert told Izvestia.

Washington's initiative coincided with a deadlock in negotiations between the United States and Iran. Despite the previously announced temporary truce and the 14-point settlement plan presented by Tehran, the parties cannot agree on key issues. In these circumstances, the launch of Operation Freedom Project looks not only like an attempt to solve a humanitarian and economic problem, but also as an element of pressure on Tehran.