The State Duma assessed the prospects of the oil market and a possible drop in prices

On May 4, State Duma deputy and member of the Committee on Small and medium-sized enterprises Alexey Govyrin presented to Izvestia an assessment of the prospects for the oil market and the possible dynamics of oil prices in the second half of 2026.

According to him, on May 4, Brent crude oil quotes are held at about $ 108.84 per barrel, WTI — about $ 102.59. Prices are supported by geopolitical risks and limited supplies through the Strait of Hormuz amid the absence of a deal between the United States and Iran. At the same time, the increase in OPEC+ quotas for June by 188 thousand barrels per day has not yet led to a decrease in the so-called geopolitical price premium.

"According to the forecast of the US Energy Information Administration, the average price of Brent in 2026 may be about $96 per barrel, with a possible peak to $115 in the second quarter and a decline below $90 by the end of the year. The World Bank estimates the base scenario at $86, with a range of $95-115 allowed while maintaining supply disruptions," the expert explained.

Sales preparation: oil prices may rise to $140 per barrel

The US refusal to extend the license for the sale of raw materials from Russia and Iran will support the high cost of fuel

In its April report, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for global demand by about 80,000 barrels per day, explaining the impact of high prices for air transportation, petrochemicals and refining.

The deputy also recalled that the Bank of Russia's macro forecast focuses on the price of Russian oil for tax purposes at $65 per barrel in 2026, followed by a decrease to $55 in 2027-2028. At the same time, he clarified that this indicator is precisely a forecast guideline, whereas budget parameters are determined by the government.

According to the scenario of the US Energy Information Administration, with the easing of geopolitical restrictions, the price of Brent may fall below $ 90 in the fourth quarter of 2026, and in 2027 it will approach the level of $76 per barrel.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov admitted on May 3 that there would be an increase in world oil prices in the event of a reduction in supplies of Russian raw materials due to strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) on infrastructure. He added that even with a decrease in exports, Russian companies will earn more, and the state will receive additional funds.