May threat: Trump promised to resume strikes in response to Iran's plan
Iran has handed over to the United States an expanded 14-point conflict resolution plan, including a phased cessation of hostilities, the lifting of sanctions pressure and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. But in Washington, Tehran's initiative was met with considerable skepticism. American President Donald Trump even allowed the possibility of resuming military strikes against the Islamic Republic. At the same time, the parties maintain tough positions on most key issues, from the nuclear program to security guarantees, which leaves the prospects for agreements uncertain and increases the risk of a new round of tension in the region.
Washington continues to threaten a military scenario
According to the contents of the 14-point proposal published by the Iranian Tasnim and Fars news agencies, the document includes the withdrawal of American troops from areas adjacent to Iran, the lifting of the blockade, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, the payment of compensation and the lifting of sanctions. In addition, it is planned to cease hostilities in all directions, including Lebanon, as well as the introduction of a new regime of control over the Strait of Hormuz. The next stage, as follows from the initiative, should be devoted to negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program.
The document was reportedly transmitted through Pakistan after the previous version of the initiative was rejected by the American side.
US President Donald Trump confirmed that he had received the Iranian plan and intended to study it, but gave it a negative preliminary assessment. "[I] have studied the new Iranian proposal, and it is unacceptable to me," he said in an interview.
"Do we just want to bomb them and end this forever — or do we want to try to make a deal?" he stressed, noting that he would prefer not to choose a military scenario "for humanitarian reasons."
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that the United States, through Pakistan, transmitted to Iran a response to the 14-point settlement plan previously proposed by Tehran, and the Iranian side is currently studying it. The Al Arabiya TV channel reported that Iran had allegedly softened its position and expressed its readiness to include the issue of its nuclear program in the agenda of negotiations with the United States.
At the same time, Trump added that he was considering the option of resuming strikes on Iran if it "acts incorrectly," without specifying which steps Tehran could take to escalate.
Iranian expert on international relations Hadi Isa Dalul believes that the current proposals for a settlement around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz do not yet contain sufficient guarantees to become the basis for real agreements. According to him, the changes in the text of the initiatives — from broader to shorter versions — do not solve the main problem: the lack of clear enforcement mechanisms.
The expert, in an interview with Izvestia, recalled that the experience of past international agreements involving Iran has shown that without reliable guarantees, agreements quickly lose their stability. In this situation, according to Hadi Isa Dalul, even mediation by third countries will not work unless the mandatory fulfillment of key points is fixed in advance. Otherwise, the probability of escalation will remain high.
At the same time, on May 1, the 60-day deadline set by the 1973 War Powers Act expired, during which President Donald Trump could conduct military operations against Iran without congressional authorization. According to the procedure, after this period, the continuation of a military operation requires either the approval of the legislature or its formal termination.
On May 2, Trump sent a notification to Congress about the end of hostilities against Iran, while stressing that the American military contingent would remain in the region. According to him, the presence of US forces is necessary to deter potential threats from Tehran and prevent further escalation.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump announced plans to significantly reduce the US military contingent in Germany. According to him, the number of troops will be reduced "significantly more than 5,000 people," which exceeds the previously discussed parameters.
The reason for the aggravation of relations was the public controversy between Trump and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who had previously stated that Iran was "humiliating the United States" during the negotiation process. In Washington, these assessments were received sharply: a Pentagon spokesman, on condition of anonymity, called such statements "inappropriate and not conducive to dialogue."
Iran is preparing for confrontation again
Meanwhile, Iran is making statements about its readiness for any eventuality. The country's Foreign Ministry claims that the next choice is now on the side of the United States — either a transition to negotiations or a return to open confrontation.
At the same time, the rhetoric about a possible new escalation is intensifying in Iranian military circles. On May 2, a representative of the central command of the Iranian armed forces, Mohammad Jafar Asadi, said that "a resumption of conflict between Iran and the United States is considered likely."
The reason is obvious: previous rounds of contacts mediated by third countries have not led to a rapprochement of the parties' positions. Disagreements remain primarily over the future of Iran's nuclear program, security guarantees, and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz.
Moroccan political analyst Kareh Abu Salem believes that despite Washington's harsh rhetoric and statements about a possible military scenario, the parties are not yet interested in moving to a full-scale war. According to him, the real cost of direct conflict for the United States and Iran remains too high.
— Neither Washington nor Tehran is seeking an open military clash in the current conditions: the United States is restrained by internal political factors, and Iran, which is under sanctions, is interested in maintaining controlled tension. The most likely scenario remains continued pressure through negotiations, the so—called "controlled escalation," the expert told Izvestia.
Israel is also monitoring the development of the negotiation process. According to media reports, there are growing fears in the country's leadership that negotiations between the United States and Iran may break down as early as next week. To prepare for such a scenario, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu planned to convene a cabinet meeting on security issues on May 3, the Times of Israel reported. However, the meeting was cancelled. As the newspaper notes, instead of him, the head of government held a closed discussion in a more limited format.
The deterioration of the situation in the Lebanese direction is also noted. Al-Monitor, citing an IDF source, reported that, contrary to the Israeli leadership's statements about the "defeat" of the Shiite movement, Hezbollah has regained its potential and switched to guerrilla warfare tactics capable of attacking Israeli settlements and military units. He also claims that the announced ceasefire is "fictitious," and that Hezbollah has partially regained its lost positions inside Lebanon.
In these circumstances, Netanyahu is trying to promote the idea of negotiations with Lebanon with the participation of the United States. However, according to an Israeli diplomatic source, Al-Monitor, the prospects for such contacts remain uncertain, and their potential effectiveness is questionable. In mid-April, Donald Trump announced plans to invite the leaders of Israel and Lebanon to the White House to facilitate dialogue, but significant progress in this direction has not yet been achieved.
Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli channel, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that no significant changes have been observed in the Lebanese direction so far, and the situation, in his assessment, is gradually moving towards a new round of confrontation with the Shiite movement.
He sees a similar dynamic in relations with Iran, expressing doubt about Tehran's abandonment of key elements of its military doctrine — the nuclear program, missile potential and support for proxy forces. In these circumstances, Yanushevsky is confident, the likelihood of a resumption of hostilities remains high, possibly in the near future, especially due to the impasse in negotiations.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
