To put in a stew: wholesale pork prices have collapsed due to market glut
Purchase prices for pork cuts in the Russian market have fallen by 15-22% year-on-year, Izvestia has learned. In conditions of saturated demand due to low consumer activity, simultaneous growth in meat production in early 2026, as well as due to export restrictions, businesses faced a drop in production profitability. As a result, some domestic pig farmers are forced to sell pork at virtually cost price. At the same time, the situation is not saved even by the upcoming barbecue season, the start of which has been postponed due to the cold weather. Izvestia investigated why this meat is getting cheaper and whether to wait for price changes on store shelves.
Why have pork prices dropped in wholesale
The average wholesale price of pork half carcass of the 2nd category for the period from April 20 to April 26 was 188 rubles per 1 kg, which is 6% less than a week earlier and 15% lower than the same period in 2025. This is stated in the materials of the analytical company NTech, which were reviewed by Izvestia. Thus, the average cost of a ham in annual terms decreased by 18%, to 232 rubles per 1 kg, shoulder blades — by 17%, to 230 rubles, brisket — by 22%, to 195 rubles. Only carbonade showed the smallest drop in prices — by 3%, to 285 rubles, NTech calculated.
At the beginning of 2026, average wholesale pork prices are about 10-15% lower than the same period in 2025, Svetlana Trofimova, Deputy General Director of Agropromkomplektatsiya Group of Companies for Animal Husbandry, confirmed to Izvestia. At the same time, the cost of production increased, the Miratorg representative added. According to him, these include expensive loans, rising costs for the purchase of agricultural machinery, fuels and lubricants, spare parts, and more. Against this background, some manufacturers are faced with the fact that current wholesale prices are close to the cost level, Svetlana Trofimova said. According to her, this factor significantly reduces the profitability of the business and raises concerns in the industry.
The situation is complicated by the increasing non-tax burden, in particular the introduction of a labeling system, explained the representative of Miratorg. This, in his opinion, slows down the development of the agro-industrial complex. The increase in the cost of services for internal logistics also exerted additional pressure, the source points out.
This year, seasonal demand was also affected by abnormally cool weather, said a representative of the Prodo Group of Companies. It is the temperature conditions and the May holidays that give the main impetus to demand, but it has been postponed for the time being in 2026, Svetlana Trofimova said. The weather factor has shifted the beginning of the traditional barbecue season, the Miratorg representative agrees. However, he is confident that this situation is temporary, and it is premature to talk about a systemic oversupply in the market.
At the same time, the demand factor has a significant impact on the dynamics of price changes, Svetlana Trofimova believes. Today, shoppers have more restrained consumer behavior related to the "general economic situation," she said. According to her, buyers have become more careful in spending. The consumer sentiment index (CPI) in April amounted to 94.5 points, having decreased by 3.7 points compared to March and by 14.5 year-on-year, according to the Central Bank. In April, the IPN turned out to be the lowest since October 2022, analysts of the regulator write in the report.
By the end of 2025, retail sales of pork (butchering, steaks and marinades) decreased by 0.7% in physical terms, but increased by 8.1% in money, NTech estimates. The market volume was just over 1 million tons, with 347 billion rubles in cash. Analysts did not disclose data for the first quarter of 2026.
Changes in the balance of supply and demand in the market led to lower prices, the Miratorg representative believes. According to the results of the first quarter, production increased by 5.7% year-on-year, to 1.47 million tons of live pigs for slaughter, according to Rosstat data. At the same time, the domestic market is already close to saturation, and the growth rate of exports has not yet compensated for the increase in production volumes, Svetlana Trofimova emphasized. According to the Rosselkhoznadzor, in January – March, exports of this meat remained at the level of the same period in 2025, amounting to about 70 thousand tons. Prodo Group estimates a decrease in exports by an average of 30%, says its representative.
The decrease in wholesale pork prices was also influenced by the increase in imports of chicken fillets from China, according to the interviewed industry participants. At the beginning of 2026, its volume increased fourfold compared to the same period in 2025, said a representative of Prodo. Imports of substitute products, primarily poultry meat, increased by about 45% year-on–year in January-March, Svetlana Trofimova noted. This increased the supply in the market and increased price competition, she added.
By increasing the share of cheap Chinese chicken, meat processors cover their own needs and contain rising costs, the co-owner of a large sausage producer told Izvestia. According to the National Meat Association, the wholesale price of chicken fillet from China is about $1.4 per 1 kg. For comparison, Russian is more than twice as expensive — 275 rubles, or $3.6 per 1 kg for the period from April 20 to April 26, according to NTech.
Izvestia sent inquiries to Talina Group of Companies, Sibagro, Agroeco, Tavros and Agrocomplex named after N.I. Tkachev, as well as to the Ministry of Agriculture. Cherkizovo's representative declined to comment.
The increase in the production of this meat is due to the influx of investments into the industry, the Ministry of Agriculture told Izvestia. This made it possible to achieve complete self-sufficiency in pork.
Stable production contributes to maintaining moderate price dynamics in this market, the representative of the department said. The wholesale cost of pork in half carcasses amounted to 192 rubles per 1 kg, which is 5.9% lower than the level of the same period a year earlier, according to data from the Food Safety Monitoring and Forecasting System on April 29.
A set of measures is provided for the development and support of the profitability of animal husbandry, the representative of the Ministry of Agriculture recalled. In particular, concessional short-term loans and direct subsidies at the federal and regional levels are available to producers, he explained.
Will pork become cheaper at retail
Retail pork prices are unlikely to follow a decrease in wholesale prices, a top manager of a large livestock company believes. According to him, due to rising costs, companies are not ready to sell meat below the cost level. From April 21 to April 27, the consumer price index for this category increased by 0.3%, and since the beginning of the year — by 0.9%, according to Rosstat data.
Chairman of the Association of Omnichannel Retail Companies (ACORT) Stanislav Bogdanov assures that the purchase prices of "first price" pork from retailers decreased by 7% year—on-year, and from January to mid-April - by almost 10%, to 214 rubles per 1 kg. At the same time, in retail in April, it fell in price year-on—year by 19%, and since the beginning of 2026 - by 15%, amounting to 217 rubles per 1 kg.
Further price dynamics will depend on the balance of supply and demand in the market, Stanislav Bogdanov believes. According to him, retail chains will continue to keep minimum prices, and in some cases, negative margins, in order to maintain the availability of products to consumers.
Representatives of the pig industry expect a correction in wholesale prices by July. According to their estimates, the dynamics may be affected by the start of the holiday season, an increase in the cost of live meat (live weight meat), as well as a decrease in fat content and pork weight gain due to an increase in air temperature, said a representative of the Prodo company. An additional factor in the price recovery in the wholesale segment may be a reduction in the share of imports in meat processing and a change in the exchange rate, added Svetlana Trofimova from Agropromkomplektatsiya.
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