Experts assessed the effect of the global economic situation on the Russian aluminum producer

Russian aluminum producer Rusal is not benefiting from rising global aluminum prices, analysts Vladimir Litvinov and Georgy Avedikov say.

Aluminum prices are close to historical highs of $3,660 per ton. "It would seem that such a trend should boost the company's revenues, but by the end of 2025, the net loss amounted to $455 million, adjusted to $ 787 million," said Vladimir Litvinov.

He added that 75% of the company's costs are for raw materials, electricity and logistics. Rusal cannot control these factors, and costs continue to rise, including due to the Middle East crisis. "Only the devaluation of the ruble can save the situation, but there is a nuance here. Each deviation of the dollar exchange rate by 1 ruble in one direction or another is plus or minus $ 60 million to the company's EBITDA. The average exchange rate in the 1st quarter of 2025 was 93.4, in the first quarter of this year — 78.3, that is, a strengthening of almost 15 rubles. As a result, we get a minus of $900 million in EBITDA. The growing cost of debt servicing and exchange rate revaluations worsen the picture. The net loss from exchange differences in 2025 alone amounted to $431 million. In the first quarter of 2026, the situation became even worse," Litvinov explained.

According to Avedikov's calculations, due to the strengthening of the ruble, Rusal's EBITDA decreased by $900 million year-on—year. "This completely negates the effect of rising aluminum prices," the expert noted.

According to Litvinov, the real beneficiaries of high aluminum prices will be Chinese players, who account for 60% of the global aluminum market — they will be able to quickly increase production both in their territory and in neighboring countries, for example, in Indonesia. "China is already increasing exports of aluminum products to Western markets, taking advantage of low rates and its own competitiveness due to declining energy tariffs and other costs," Litvinov stressed.

He added that Rusal's case clearly demonstrates that major players with a strong business model face insurmountable barriers from current economic policies. "Just recently, there was hope for a weakening of the ruble, which promises many benefits to exporters and the budget. But no, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has crushed this emerging trend. Therefore, the continued strengthening of the national currency offsets the rise in metal prices on the spot markets and the investment idea in the company's shares," the analyst stated.

"A strong ruble, a high rate and rising costs actually "eat up" all the benefits from a favorable external environment," Avedikov sums up.

Earlier, Kommersant, citing Rusal, drew attention to the fact that the high share of imported raw materials and the rise in prices of products linked to the price of oil on the domestic market prevent the company from taking advantage of the market situation. For example, the price of petroleum coke is pegged to the global one, and Rusal buys it at a premium due to rising global energy prices.

According to estimates by Boris Kopeikin, chief economist at the Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics, at a rate of 75 rubles per dollar, selling a ton of aluminum for export at the peak of prices brings 10-15% more in ruble terms than at a much lower metal price in 2024. And the cost of production and logistics in rubles has increased significantly since then, Kopeikin noted.

Chief Economist at VEB.Andrei Klepach, quoted by Vedomosti, believes that geopolitical cataclysms are now coming to the fore among the challenges to the global economy, and they are leading to an increase in the cost of logistics. According to the optimistic scenario, global GDP growth in 2026 will slow down by 0.2–0.3 percentage points, i.e. it will not be 3%, but 2.7–2.8%, Klepach noted. However, from his point of view, the consequences will be more severe: the world is waiting for systemic changes in the logistics of flows, because all supplies from the Persian Gulf are now at risk. Klepach believes that the loss of global economic growth will be much stronger, and the structural adjustment itself will last for many more years. And this, in turn, will lead to a drop in demand and, as a result, prices for raw materials and metals, warns Litvinov.