The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+: how will this affect the global economy
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is withdrawing from OPEC and OPEC+, which could intensify the energy crisis and change the balance of power in the global oil market. All the details are in the Izvestia article.
Economic and political factors
Officially, the actions of the Emirates are explained by the desire for flexibility and the protection of national interests. As noted by State Duma Deputy Alexander Tolmachev in a conversation with Izvestia, the country has long wanted to lift restrictions on oil production and secure its economy against the backdrop of high geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East.
"In theory, such a maneuver could lead to a decrease in world oil prices. However, the UAE's market share is not so large, besides, the contracts of the largest players are based on long—term agreements — price fluctuations do not affect them," he said.
The decision was made in the context of instability in the Strait of Hormuz, which is the most important supply route. According to Ekaterina Katalina, PhD in Economics, energy policy is now increasingly dependent on the military-political situation, which reduces the predictability of supplies in the future.
Impact on the oil market
Evgeny Zlenko, Project Manager of the Polylog Group, believes that the UAE's decision is rather political in nature.
"This step no longer plays a special role. The crisis in the energy market has gone so far that formal quotas have lost all meaning," he said in an interview with Izvestia.
As Ekaterina Catalina added, regional powers have proven that national and military security priorities outweigh collective economic benefits. For the global economy, this means a transition to a phase of increased instability, where the old rules do not work, and the new ones have not yet been formed.
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