Serve chilled: overheating of the economy may come to naught by the end of 2026

The central Bank is forced to deliberately cool the overheated economy, said the head of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina at the Alpha summit on April 28. This condition is not always felt at the level of individual companies. However, macro data suggests that in Russia demand exceeds supply, which threatens high inflation. At the same time, in the second half of the year, signs of overheating may almost disappear, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. What will push the economy up and what it might look like in 10 years is in the Izvestia article.

Nabiullina described the Central Bank's decisions with the phrase "to take away the punch in the middle of the party"

The signs of overheating in the economy may weaken noticeably and practically disappear this year, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. According to Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the Rikom-Trust investment company, this will happen no earlier than the second half of the year. As Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, explained, it is then that the economy will enter the stage of gradual normalization.

This will only happen definitively when wage growth slows down, staff shortages decrease, and inflation steadily approaches the Central Bank's goal of 4%, the expert added.

Overheating is dangerous because it is not always felt even at the level of individual companies, said Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Bank of Russia, during her speech at the Alfa Summit on Tuesday, April 28. However, macro data suggests that demand still significantly exceeds supply in the economy.

The chairman of the regulator referred to the phrase of the former head of the US Federal Reserve William Martin. He said that the task of central banks is to take away the punch bowl in the middle of the party. Elvira Nabiullina, in turn, emphasized that it is precisely this balancing that makes it possible to maintain the financial and price stability that society needs.

The regulator is forced to deliberately cool the overheated economy, because there is no other way to stop growth, said the head of the Central Bank.

— Sometimes we are accused of slowing down economic growth. But believe me, we don't really have a choice in the current situation — high inflation or high growth," she explained.

Since June 2025, the Bank of Russia has gradually lowered its key rate from a record 21% to 14.5% in April this year. The decline cycle has been formally launched, but the Central Bank's actions remain extremely cautious, with a clear "hawkish" tone, said Andrey Surikov, Marketing Director at Gamma Group Management Company. He added: as long as the rate remains high, talk of defeating inflation and cooling demand is more like rhetoric. The real "recovery" of the economy will begin when the regulator takes more active steps.

What will support the economy and slow down inflation in the Russian Federation

Elvira Nabiullina noted that the decision regarding the rate requires careful analysis, and not "automatic action." According to her, one of the difficult steps in 2025 was to choose a downward trajectory in order to stop the flywheel of inflation and not harm the development of the economy.

Among the pro-inflationary risks, the Bank of Russia now highlights the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and possible changes in fiscal policy. Rising prices of oil and gas around the world will inevitably lead to higher prices for wide categories of consumer goods in foreign markets. And then, with some delay, it will affect the Russian market, said Kirill Kononov, an analyst at BCS World of Investments.

Budget risk is more dangerous in the long run: if spending deviates from the financial plan, the Central Bank will slow down or reverse the rate cut cycle, warned Denis Astafyev, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform.

At the Alpha Summit, Elvira Nabiullina also mentioned the situation on the labor market - there is an unprecedented shortage of labor in Russia. With unemployment at 2.1%, employers raise salaries in the fight for staff, costs are transferred to prices, and the flywheel gets additional turnover, Denis Astafyev explained.

Inflation is also affected by the growth of industrial production — the more consumer goods are produced in the economy, the less excess money there will be, Freedom Finance Global noted. In other words, in order to effectively combat inflation without leading the economy to stagnation and even more so to recession, it is necessary that rates act as a balance between output and the amount of money in circulation.

How will the market develop in 2026

We should not expect an IPO boom in Russia due to the decline in the key rate, Elvira Nabiullina also said at the summit. According to her, other barriers need to be removed for this.

The rate is important, but it does not solve the main problem of the placement market, said Vladimir Chernov. He added: an IPO requires not only cheaper money, but also investor confidence in company valuations, transparent reporting, clear dividend policies, and normal market liquidity.

According to the Central Bank, in 2025, the volume of IPOs and SPOs (secondary public offerings) increased to 125 billion rubles, but the number of issuers decreased from 19 to nine, and there were only four new exits to the stock exchange. Retail investors also participated less strongly, their number decreased 4.5 times. This shows that the market has become more selective, rather than massive, the expert is sure.

— An IPO boom is possible no earlier than 2027, if the average key interest rate drops closer to 8-10%, inflation returns to 4%, and companies begin to enter the market with more moderate estimates. We also need high-quality preparation for publicity, disclosure of financial statements, a clear ownership structure and protection of minority shareholders. Without this, the rate cut in itself will only result in individual transactions, and not a wide placement market," added Vladimir Chernov.

Andrey Surikov from Gamma Group Management Company added: while companies will perceive the IPO as an attempt to "cash out" at its peak, and investors as a lottery, alternative instruments will remain the leader.

How the Russian economy will change in 10 years

Three global challenges will determine the future economic growth in the Russian Federation in the next 10 years — these are labor resources, technology, and the state of the global economy, said Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov. He added that life expectancy is increasing now, and the population is aging. Productivity will be a key factor in the labor market, as well as competent management of migration processes, as competition for foreigners in the world increases, including in China and the Arab countries.

In addition, the minister stressed that it is important to continue integration processes — this is a big and difficult job, where it is necessary to build relationships, invest time and resources there.

Technological changes in the world will determine the conditions of business, the financial sector and the whole of life, Elvira Nabiullina said, answering a question about how she sees the economy in 10 years. She stressed that it is quite difficult to answer such a question.

— We are now once again in the history of mankind in the era of tectonic technological changes. Technological progress is always going on, but such tectonic changes still happen, in my opinion, not so often," she explained.

Maxim Reshetnikov said: the worst thing is the inability to use technology. This is often an investment not in billions, but in flexibility, a clear understanding of your competitive advantage and the ability to maximize what is on the market.

Kirill Kononov from BCS World of Investments named predictability of inflation and exchange rate, tax environment, administrative regulation, as well as logistical and transaction costs among the conditions for long-term stability.