The location of the breakdown: Hezbollah threatened to expand the conflict with Israel

The fragile truce between Israel and Lebanon increasingly resembles a pause before a new escalation. Despite ongoing contacts and formal agreements, the parties continue to exchange blows, and Hezbollah has told Izvestia that it is ready to move to larger-scale hostilities in the event of a breakdown in the ceasefire. Additional uncertainty is caused by the lack of progress in the dialogue between the United States and Iran, where Washington, according to media reports, is not ready to accept the settlement plan proposed by Tehran.

Hezbollah is ready for open war

The truce between Israel and Lebanon came into force on April 16 and was originally scheduled for 10 days. It was later extended until May 17. The statement was made by US President Donald Trump. Nevertheless, even after the prolongation of the ceasefire, the situation in southern Lebanon remains extremely tense. In the context of violations of the current truce, Hezbollah does not rule out an imminent escalation of the conflict.

A source of Izvestia in Hezbollah noted that if the truce ends without its extension, "the war should become open again — to Haifa, to Tel Aviv and other settlements." He stressed that at the moment the movement is complying with the terms of the truce, while Hezbollah demands the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon.

Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen

— When Israel leaves, then the clashes will stop — if we are talking about Lebanese territory. And if there is fighting beyond its borders, we will act where necessary," the representative of the movement said. — During the truce period, we fully comply with it, if the Israeli enemy also fully complies with it. But we do not forget that one truce is not enough — we want liberation.

Israeli forces continue to illegally hold a significant part of the territory of southern Lebanon, grossly violating the sovereignty of the Republic. The IDF controls a border strip from 5 to 10 km deep, which includes more than 50 Lebanese villages. Civilians are still unable to return to their homes, and many settlements in the area are being systematically destroyed.

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The Lebanese movement has relied on the massive use of drones and strengthened its air defenses.

Violations of the truce

The sides regularly accuse each other of violating the truce. The Israeli military is launching airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, saying it is responding to threats and attempted attacks. In turn, Hezbollah reports rocket and drone strikes on Israeli military positions. The movement emphasizes that such actions are retaliatory in nature and represent a reaction to the ongoing Israeli military presence and destruction in border settlements.

Al Mayadeen correspondent Ali al-Ahmar told Izvestia that the situation in southern Lebanon remains tense and is complicated by the IDF's military presence in the border areas. He claims that in recent days, Israeli forces have been demolishing and blowing up residential buildings in southern Lebanon using engineering equipment.

Photo: REUTERS/Shir Torem

According to him, more than 220 violations have been recorded since the ceasefire agreement was reached, and the Israeli side is using the truce to strengthen its positions in the border area.

Additional difficulties are created by the fact that Israel and Lebanon perceive the results of the negotiations that took place in Washington on the night of April 24 differently. The Israeli side reported an alleged convergence of positions on a number of issues, including the disarmament of Hezbollah, but such assessments were not officially confirmed in Beirut. The Lebanese authorities have no levers of pressure on Hezbollah, while the military potential of the Shiite movement exceeds the capacity of the country's official armed forces. Moreover, the negotiation process is causing serious disputes within Lebanon. Representatives of Hezbollah oppose direct contacts with Israel, considering them a violation of current legislation and going beyond constitutional norms.

The US will not accept Iran's plan

The situation around Lebanon is developing in the context of broader regional processes, centered on the confrontation between the United States and Iran. One of the elements of a possible settlement was a three-stage plan proposed by Tehran through intermediaries.

Photo: TASS/Valery Sharifulin

According to media reports, it involves first ending hostilities and providing security guarantees, then moving on to discussing issues related to the Strait of Hormuz, and only at the third stage to the nuclear program.

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The search for compromises continues, but Tehran does not believe in Washington's sincerity.

At the same time, the Iranian side insists that it is impossible to discuss the nuclear dossier without reaching agreements on the first two stages. This approach actually reflects Tehran's desire to link regional security with nuclear issues.

However, according to CNN, Washington is unlikely to accept this proposal. The US administration believes that the proposed plan leaves key issues related to Iran's nuclear program unresolved. Under these circumstances, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not rule out increasing pressure on Tehran to make concessions.

Photo: TASS/AP/Vahid Salemi

Meanwhile, ways to resolve the conflict in the Middle East were also discussed in St. Petersburg on April 27 during the visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. The Russian side confirmed its readiness to play a mediating role and promote dialogue between the parties to the conflict. Earlier, Moscow proposed a compromise option involving the transfer of Iran's enriched uranium reserves to its territory, but this initiative did not receive support from the United States.