A game of attrition: How many missiles does Iran actually have left?

Washington's statements about the critical depletion of Iran's missile reserves may be premature. Despite the US-Israeli strikes on infrastructure, a significant part of the country's production facilities remains hidden underground and continues to operate. Moreover, as Izvestia found out, Tehran still retains the opportunity to choose between a sharp escalation and a strategy of protracted confrontation. The future dynamics of the conflict in the Middle East will largely depend on this choice.

Iran's War Strategy

The development of the situation in the Middle East depends on the intensity of the fighting and the operational decisions of the leadership of the Islamic Republic. The experts interviewed by Izvestia identified two polar scenarios that determine Iran's strategy in the current confrontation.

The first way is to play all-in. This option involves a sharp increase in missile launches: the volume of attacks may be 2-3 times higher than in March. The logic of the move is simple — to try to suppress the enemy's air defenses, taking advantage of the potential shortage of anti-aircraft ammunition from opponents, military expert Dmitry Kornev told Izvestia.

Among the advantages of such tactics is the high probability of breaking through the defense and causing significant damage. However, there are disadvantages: extremely costly consumption of resources. Under such pressure, the country's missile arsenal will be depleted in the shortest possible time.

— The second scenario is a "long war". Judging by the statistics, Tehran tried to adhere to this line throughout April. The method implies austerity of the arsenal and stretching the campaign over a long period — from one month to six months," the expert explained.

Such a survival tactic looks extremely vulnerable, as it requires Iran to successfully survive under massive air attack. It is possible that Tehran will eventually abandon austerity tactics in favor of the first option: inflicting maximum damage "here and now" while the missile capacities still retain their combat capability. The final choice of strategy remains situational and will directly depend on how events unfold in the near future.

US Assessment

Washington believes that Tehran has about 50% of its pre-war missile reserves left. In an interview with Fox News, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that the Iranian side is striving for a deal, as it has only half of its former arsenal, having lost its fleet and air force.

Rubio added that the problems Iran faced even before the escalation have not gone away. The country is experiencing rising inflation, an ongoing drought, and the economy is in decline due to sanctions pressure.

"Now they have half the shells left, there are no factories, there is no navy and aviation. The infrastructure has been destroyed, so Tehran's position is much weaker," the Secretary of State said.

According to open sources, by the end of April, Iran faced a critical shortage not so much of ammunition as of launch systems. Israeli data indicate the destruction of up to 60% of launchers. This creates an asymmetry: even with almost half of the pre-war stock in warehouses, the ability to realize this potential using the salvo method has decreased to at least 40% of the previous level.

— The analysis of the projectile consumption from February 28 to April 28 shows a high unevenness, — Dmitry Kornev specified. — The most intensively used short—range missiles (SRBM) were the Fateh, Zolfaghar and Qiam families. They formed the basis of the strike packages for the Persian Gulf countries. Their supply is depleted most significantly — up to 50%. Intermediate-range and intermediate-range missiles (MRBM/IRBM), such as the Emad and Khorramshahr, were used more selectively. Their reserves have been preserved better (55-70%). Strategic carriers and space programs did not actually participate in intensive strikes, they remain at the disposal of Tehran.

Iran's Underground Factories

However, military expert Yuri Lyamin is confident that the main mistake in assessing the current state of Iran's missile industry is to ignore the scale of its "underground strategy." Unlike classic industrial facilities, the local infrastructure has been created for decades and is hidden deep under the mountain ranges.

— Satellite images, which analysts often rely on, capture only the above-ground part of the iceberg. The main facilities, including assembly shops and solid rocket fuel mixing systems, are reliably protected by rock formations," the expert recalled. — Israel's experience in Syria, where repeated bombing of ground targets for years could not disable underground production, proves that demolishing the tunnel entrance does not mean destroying the plant. The Iranians have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to clear rubble and restore logistics to hidden bases in a matter of hours.

The history of conflicts in 2024-2025 is the best confirmation of the survivability of the system. Initially, intelligence predicted that Iran would need years to restore its solid fuel production capacity after the strikes. In reality, Tehran went into large-scale production in a matter of months.

— We have seen how, after each round of escalation, the Iranian industry not only recovered, but returned to production rates of hundreds of ballistic missiles per month. This indicates that the republic probably has not only safe underground workshops, but also strategic stocks of equipment intended for operational repairs of affected above—ground sections of factories," Yuri Lyamin emphasized.

The question of where Iran gets its components from under the naval blockade is also not an obstacle. Overland routes, cooperation across the Caspian Sea and the potential for the supply of critical electronic components through third countries make it possible to maintain the production cycle. The blockade of sea routes prevents the export of oil, but does not block the possibility of delivering compact but important components for rocket technology.

Most likely, Iran's missile industry did suffer damage, but it was not paralyzed, Yuri Lyamin believes. The current situation is not "potential destruction", but only a temporary slowdown, which, based on accumulated experience, Tehran is able to compensate for in a fairly short time. To rely on estimates that the potential has been reduced by half is to underestimate the depth and scale of Iran's military-industrial infrastructure, which was created to wage a war of attrition.