Analysis of the submitted data: the assessment of the income inequality index may change in Russia

In Russia, the assessment of income inequality may change. Due to the transition to a progressive scale of taxation, its formula has become unproven, scientists believe. They consider it necessary to take into account income data in this calculation after personal income tax deduction, rather than before, as it is now, and also take into account the difference in the cost of living in the regions. As Izvestia found out, after discussions of the scientific community, the federal authorities drew attention to the situation. The Ministry of Labor and Rosstat reported that they conceptually support these approaches and are exploring the possibility of their application.

What is the inequality coefficient for?

The transition in 2025 to a progressive scale of taxation in Russia, when the tax depends on income thresholds (2.4 million, 5 million, 20 million, 50 million rubles per year) and ranges from 13% to 22%, caused an unexpected consequence. The scientific community began to discuss its impact on the accuracy of calculating the Gini coefficient, which is a macroeconomic indicator of the degree of inequality in the distribution of income or wealth among citizens.

And as Izvestia found out, their developments are being reviewed by the federal authorities responsible for measuring the indicator.

The indicator in question is usually between zero and one. In 2023, according to Rosstat estimates, it was 0.405, in 2024 it was 0.41, and then it tended to increase: in January-September 2025 it was estimated at 0.411. The decree on the national development goals of Russia for the period up to 2030 and for the future up to 2036 sets out the task of reducing the coefficient Gini to 0.37 by 2030 and to 0.33 by 2036.

For example, new options for calculating the Gini Index were discussed at the Higher School of Economics. They noted that among the general population, the income dynamics index shows a gradual increase followed by stabilization, while for the population with incomes above 200 thousand rubles per month, after the change in the tax mechanism, fluctuations began to be observed that were uncharacteristic of the situation. As a result, scientists believe, this does not reflect the real situation.

One of the ways out of this situation is to change the data on which the Gini coefficient will be calculated — not according to nominal, but according to disposable income — that is, minus personal income tax. Thus, the income will be adjusted based on the data of the Federal Tax Service.

In addition, the HSE considers it necessary to take into account regional cost-of-living adjustments. For example, a study conducted in 2021 pointed to the difference in the cost of living in different regions of the country, which can adjust estimates of inequality.

In Russia, the same income level can mean different opportunities for residents of different settlements, Svetlana Mareeva, head of the Center for Research on Inequality and Living Standards at the HSE Institute for Social Policy, told Izvestia. She noted that the government does not have many tools to influence economic inequality.

"Social support measures are primarily aimed at reducing poverty, but even its significant reduction, which has been observed in recent years, does not always lead to a reduction in inequality," she said. — With this in mind, both researchers and the government are interested not only in the accuracy of the assessment of inequality, but also in the meaningful logic of its measurement.

In her opinion, the transition to the calculation of disposable income allows for a more accurate assessment of the redistributive effect of fiscal policy.

—And taking into account the regional differentiation of the cost of living allows us to more accurately assess the real inequality between households in different regions by adjusting incomes to the price level," the expert believes.

Will there be an adjustment

The Ministry of Labor, in response to a request from Izvestia, noted that the agency "has studied and is working on the data provided by the scientific community on improving the methodology for calculating the Gini coefficient."

"In general, we support the position of the researchers. The approach used by scientists allows for a more accurate assessment of income distribution and, consequently, inequality. At the same time, adjusting the existing parameters may lead to incompatibility of the time series," the ministry expressed concern.

The Ministry of Labor reported that the possibility of conducting calculations using the new methodology as part of monitoring the achievement of national development goals is "being worked out."

Rosstat also informed Izvestia about the study of the approach, which was announced at the HSE. They noted that this is being done jointly with the Ministry of Labor. They also indicated that they support the proposals of the scientific community to improve the Gini coefficient.

"Statistics are a living organism that is constantly evolving. The emergence of new phenomena or changes in the studied sectors of the economy invariably lead to adjustments in indicators or the emergence of new ones," the press service of the department said.

How will the data be compared

In April 2026, the Higher School of Economics presented the report "Regional estimates of income inequality based on tax statistics and microdata from the Income Survey." According to him, estimates using tax data and microdata from selective monitoring of household incomes show a synchronous trend of a decrease in the Gini coefficient in 2021-2023, while the official Rosstat indicator is moving to a significant increase in 2023.

"So, the Gini coefficient according to the proposed methodology would be 0.380 in 2023, whereas according to the current methodology, its value is 0.405," the description of the study on the university's website said.

Changing the assessment methodology can indeed lead to a more precise assessment of the extent of inequality and make its measurement more sensitive, says the director of the Research Center for Spatial Analysis and Regional Diagnostics at the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the RANEPA (Presidential Academy) Dmitry Zemlyansky.

"But the use of administrative data in estimating household incomes can complement, but not replace, current methods," he said. — Administrative data provides greater accuracy in the legal segment, but will not fully capture other sources of income.

He also noted that adjustments to the methods should be treated carefully: "It is important to ensure the possibility of analyzing retrospectively for comparable indicators."

Tatiana Pershina, Associate Professor of Statistics at the State University of Management, noted that Russia is in a fairly favorable position for calculating the index — the data on taxes paid are more verified and extensive.

"Our data from the Federal Tax Service does not come from declarations, which are not submitted by everyone, but from employers, that is, they cover almost the entire employed population," she said.

She assumed that when recalculated using a methodology based on tax data, the Gini coefficient would approach the requirements of the May decrees on reducing income differentiation.

Marina Kartseva, Deputy Director of the Center for the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting at the Presidential Academy, noted that the accuracy of the inequality assessment is necessary for a reliable description of the income and welfare structure, the correct choice of social and tax policy parameters and a reliable analysis of the consequences of ongoing reforms.

"But in reality, there is no complete information about the incomes of all households, and calculations are usually based on sample surveys," she noted. — Their well—known limitation is the underrepresentation of the most affluent groups: such respondents are less likely to participate in surveys and less willing to disclose income. As a result, the "upper part" of the distribution may not be fully reflected, which affects the final estimate.

Therefore, she noted, various approaches can be used to correct this bias. For example, Rosstat uses macroeconomic household income indicators in addition to microdata from sociological surveys to assess inequality.

The expert added that at the same time as expanding the set of indicators and methods, it is crucial to continue evaluating the Gini index based on the previous methodology.

—Ensuring the continuity of indicators makes it possible to monitor changes over time, compare results between different periods and correctly interpret the dynamics of inequality," she said.

Pavel Seleznev, Dean of the Faculty of International Economic Relations at the Financial University, noted that in international practice it is customary to assess income inequality after taxes.

— This gives a more objective picture, because the real possibilities of a citizen are affected by the amount that is on hand, and not the one that is accrued. Taking into account the fact that we have implemented a progressive scale, the contribution of tax instruments is increasing, but without calculations it is impossible to assess how effective this solution turned out to be," he said.

The expert also stated that, given the scale of Russia's territory and the difference in climatic conditions, a nominal income comparison cannot describe the real gap in living standards for different people.