Orban's departure will reveal the true positions of the Euroleaders. And here's why

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has given up his mandate in the national parliament and seems to be leaving politics for a while. This moment was eagerly awaited by EU leaders, for whom the Hungarian Prime minister became the main obstacle to the adoption of sanctions against Russia and the allocation of funds in support of Ukraine. However, in practice, the Hungarian Prime minister's position was largely convenient for Brussels, as it allowed him to be pointed out as the main opponent of Ukraine's accession to the EU. Whether Orban's departure will make the political field of the European Union homogeneous and why the struggle against rebellious Hungary only masked the split within the EU is in the Izvestia article.

A union without unity

• Unity in the EU is rather situational. This was clearly demonstrated by the situation with the conflict in Ukraine and the ongoing Israeli military actions in Gaza. While almost all EU countries supported Kiev, in the case of Tel Aviv, some EU members continued their traditional line of support for the Israeli position, while others opposed violations of international law and indiscriminate attacks on the Palestinian civilian population. This situation has become a demonstration of the policy of double standards of the European Union.

• The split within the EU was highlighted by the creation of a "coalition of willing" from Germany, France, Poland, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands, initiated by the European Commission in February 2026, which should ensure that EU defense and financial issues are resolved in cases where there is no prospect of unanimity within the bloc. The same approach to building coalitions within the EU has been used before, although not publicly acknowledged, to purchase energy or impose sanctions. In particular, work on the allocation of a loan of €90 billion for Ukraine, in which the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary refused to participate, was also conducted contrary to the position of these countries.

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What will the allocation of a European loan to Kiev and the adoption of the 20th package of sanctions against Russia lead to?

Viktor Orban was the figure who consolidated the EU — the member states of the union actually united against the one who was considered a "pro—Russian" politician and defector in their ranks. Peter Magyar, the leader of the Tisa party that won in Hungary, although he outlined "red lines" in his national policy, demonstrates a much greater willingness to compromise. At the same time, European analysts warn the EU against immediately unfreezing European grants and loans worth about €18 billion for Hungary, fearing to repeat the previous experience when Poland gained access to the union's money before implementing the required reforms and subsequently ignored individual EU requirements.

The EU used Orban's position as a cover

• Despite the fact that Orban was being made a "scarecrow" for Europe, he actually voiced a pragmatic position shared by many EU leaders. In particular, LGBT propaganda (recognized as extremist and banned in Russia) is opposed not only by Hungary, but also by Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and the Baltic states, where the ban on same-sex marriage is included in the constitution.

Kiev considered Orban to be the main obstacle to accelerated EU membership. But, although EU members have supported Ukraine in the conflict, as soon as it comes to expediting the country's admission to the bloc, many state leaders oppose Ukraine's full membership and access to the union budget from 2027. So, at an informal summit of leaders in Cyprus, the Croatian Prime Minister sarcastically responded negatively to the suggestion of its accession on January 1, 2027, and the German Chancellor bluntly stated that "it is clear to everyone that Ukraine's immediate accession to the European Union is, of course, impossible." Earlier, such statements were made by the Hungarian prime minister, and the rest of the EU members could demonstrate "unity" and nod at the rebellious Budapest.

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• Instead of full membership, starting in 2027, Ukraine is offered participation in the upcoming European Defense Union and "associate membership", without access to union money and voting rights. Such a symbolic status should allow Ukraine to participate in meetings of EU leaders as long as the country fulfills the necessary requirements for joining the European Union in the usual manner "on the basis of merit." Kiev stated that such a compromise would not suit it.

How will the situation in the EU change

• The European Union may take advantage of the absence of the main troublemaker, who was considered Orban, to revise the voting rules: in particular, the repeal of article 31 of the Treaty on the European Union, which gives member states the right of veto. The EU has been trying for several years to change this situation in order to get rid of the "tyranny of the minority", when the leaders of individual countries block initiatives that do not meet their national interests. It is not a fact that even after Orban's departure, these plans will be able to be implemented, since it was the right of veto that was fundamental to the creation of the European Union. In addition, he does not have much time to change the treaty before the start of the new electoral cycle in 2027, which will begin in France and affect ten countries, which could ultimately radically change the situation in the EU.

• Even if Orban no longer appears on the political scene, the European Union will have to deal with nationalist parties that are actively gaining political capital in several countries at the same time. Slovakia's protest position remains, although it is considered more negotiable than Hungary. It is unknown how Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will behave after Orban's departure from the political arena. The EU expects his influence to weaken, but the appearance of a "new Orban" is possible in the future, since his views are not something unexpected for Europeans.

• Peter Magyar, who may become the new prime minister of Hungary, has every chance of being a "dark horse" for the EU, since he is not a representative of left-liberal views. Like Orban, he opposes the EU's migration policy, but uses less harsh rhetoric. At the same time, experts have no doubt that Magyar will continue to pursue a national policy and defend the rights of Hungarians abroad, including the issue of the autonomy of Transcarpathia, which periodically pops up in the political field of Ukraine.

• Union unity may also be unattainable due to the financial problems of EU members, weakened by the costs of supporting Ukraine. Against the background of the conflict in Iran and the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, European states are facing growing economic difficulties, which may also split the union on defense initiatives, the "green" agenda or the allocation of funds for Ukraine. In particular, Italy is already forecasting an increase in the budget deficit and is forced to revise planned items, reducing defense spending.

When preparing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:

• political scientist, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Russian State University Vadim Trukhachev;
• the Americanist Malek Dudakov.