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- The final moment: up to 2.5 million Russians will pay tax on deposits by the end of 2026.
The final moment: up to 2.5 million Russians will pay tax on deposits by the end of 2026.
About 2.5 million Russians may pay interest tax on deposits by the end of this year, analysts polled by Izvestia predict. At the beginning of 2026, the Central Bank gradually reduced the key rate from 16%. If the rate no longer rises above this level, then the fee will have to be given to those customers who have earned more than 160 thousand rubles on deposits. To do this, the deposits should be over 1 million, experts estimated. What will affect the attractiveness of deposits and how much the budget will receive from this tax by the end of 2026 is in the Izvestia article.
How much should I keep on the deposit in order to get the tax
According to the results of this year, Russians whose income on deposits exceeded 160 thousand rubles will have to pay interest tax. This base is calculated as 1 million rubles multiplied by the maximum key value on the first day of each month in the reporting year.
So far, the rate was at the highest level for this year in January — 16%. At each meeting, the Central Bank lowered the key rate by 0.5 percentage points. On April 24, the regulator lowered it to 14.5%. If the Bank of Russia does not set it above 16% by the end of 2026, then the tax base will not change. Experts believe that this is highly unlikely. By the end of 2023, it was 150 thousand, in 2024 and 2025 - 210 thousand.
— By the end of 2026, those with deposits of more than 1 million rubles will be eligible for tax. With the most positive assessment, this is no more than 2-2.5 million Russians," the financial adviser and founder of Rodin estimated.Capital Alexey Rodin. At the same time, most of them will pay a tax in the region of 700-2000 rubles, he said.
Fyodor Sidorov, the founder of the School of Practical Investment, named a similar figure (about 2 million people).
About 1.8–2.3 million citizens will be subject to the tax by the end of this year, independent economist Andrei Barkhota predicts. He added: now there is an increase in demand for cash, and deposit rates are falling, which will reduce the number of payers. By the end of 2025, the expert predicts a figure of 2.3–2.8 million people (in 2023 there were 1.8 million).
Citizens do not need to declare interest income on deposits on their own, the tax authorities themselves do this based on data received from banks, said Albert Anufriev, lawyer, managing partner of Forseti & Ting LLC. The payment deadline is no later than December 1 of the year following the reporting year. In other words, the results of this year will be taken into account in 2027.
When will Russians start withdrawing money from deposits
According to the Deposit Insurance Agency, the average deposit amount at the beginning of 2026 was 419 thousand rubles. Russians consider deposits as the easiest, most reliable and understandable way to save money from inflation, Alexey Rodin explained. The outflow of funds is possible if the interest rate is lowered and active lending is resumed, as many have now taken a wait-and-see attitude, the expert noted.
— The main driver of the popularity of deposits today is the real positive profitability: even with declining key deposits, they bring more inflation. As long as this gap persists, the money will remain in banks. Psychology also works: after three years of high interest rates, deposits have become a familiar financial instrument for many Russians," said Fyodor Sidorov.
In his opinion, the emergence of competitive alternatives can cool interest: bonds with attractive coupons or new stock market instruments. The tax itself will not cause a massive outflow: for most Russians, it is zero or measured in several thousand rubles, the expert explained.
Deposit rates will significantly cover at least official inflation for a long time, says Igor Dodonov, an analyst at Finam Financial Group. In addition, this tool has a virtually risk-free status. Citizens' funds on deposits are insured for 1.4 million in each bank.
How much will the budget receive from the deposit tax
As Izvestia wrote, last year Russians transferred 320.2 billion rubles in taxes on interest on deposits for 2024. In 2027, the authorities expect revenues of 305.4 billion rubles, the Ministry of Finance told the editorial board.
— On the one hand, the probable tax-free limit of 160 thousand rubles is lower than last year, which means that more depositors with moderate amounts will get into the "tax network". On the other hand, the profitability of deposits objectively decreases along with the rate. The interest income of citizens in 2026 will be more modest than the record figures of 2025," said Fyodor Sidorov.
If the Central Bank continues its planned rate cut to 11-12% by the end of the year, the budget will quite realistically collect what is planned, the expert concluded.
According to Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, if the average key rate falls below 13% this year, then in 2027 the total amount of tax revenue may be slightly less than projected (no more than 300 billion rubles).
The indicator will also be affected by the growing demand for the cache. Some citizens do not trust banks, fearing blockages and checks, said Albert Anufriev, Managing Partner at Forseti & Ting. Against the background of Internet outages, the use of paper money has also increased — in just one week of April, the volume of cash in circulation jumped by 240 billion rubles. Many also keep their savings "under the mattress." As Izvestia wrote, every seventh Russian does this.
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