Perfect Storm: why truck sales and production are falling in Russia
In the first quarter of 2026, sales of heavy trucks and their production in Russia collapsed by a third. Experts are talking about the sum of the factors that led to this situation. Izvestia found out when the cargo market would start to grow.
"The product is completely devalued"
According to the analytical agency Autostat, sales of heavy trucks in January–March amounted to 8,900 units, which is 30% less than in the same period last year. Truck production in Russia reached 25.5 thousand units in the first quarter, which is 30.1% lower than in 2025.
The withdrawal of truck manufacturers from unfriendly countries from Russia provoked uncontrolled imports of new trucks from China in 2023, which significantly exceeded market needs, Autostat recalled. This led to a dramatic increase in sales to 125.7 thousand vehicles (+82%). In the next two years, the adaptation of the automotive industry was accompanied by a decline in sales of new equipment — by 19% in 2024 and by 54% in 2025.
Serial production of heavy four-wheel drive trucks.
According to Anatoly Grek, head of the Transport and Logistics practice at Strategy Partners, the freight industry is in a "perfect storm."
— Until 2022, truck distribution relied on the Big Seven, decent brands that had existed for a hundred years. Dealers did not worry about the quality of the car, because these are the oldest brands. They positioned exactly how much this model should cost, what kind of service support is needed, how many spare parts are needed in stock, how much standard hours should cost, and how to train employees. After 2022, the Big Seven left, and Chinese brands came. At the moment, discounts reach 30-40%, the amount of new equipment accumulated in warehouses is such that some distributors give it away with deferred payments after two years. The product is completely devalued, and we don't know exactly what the operating costs will be," Anatoly Grek said during the Finauto conference.
Inefficient model
Chinese tractors have reached a share of 75% of total sales in just two years. The sales volume of cars from Russian and Belarusian manufacturers remained at the same level. They faced a shortage of components, worked at maximum load, which is why the delivery time of the cars was much longer than that of the "Chinese".
Customs clearance of FAW trucks arriving from China at the Oktyabrsky Customs post of the Yekaterinburg Customs Terminal
The current model of using transport in cargo transportation is ineffective, Anatoly Grek believes. The fleet is old, and the ratio of trailers to tractors is 1:1. The cost of transportation increased by more than one and a half times from 2022 to 2025. Salaries were rising due to the shortage of drivers. At the same time, tariffs began to fall in 2024, as the market turned out to be oversaturated with Chinese equipment, the key rate increased, and the business activity of shippers fell.
As a result, according to Anatoly Grek, tens of thousands of trucks have accumulated on the sites of leasing companies.
They did not have the necessary competence
— According to our estimate, based on stock data from among the top 10 leasing companies, about 15 thousand units of trucks (including Chinese ones) are currently being marketed on the secondary market through re-leasing or direct sales, which is almost a third of the current volume of the new equipment segment. Some companies managed to reach a relative plateau (the number of seizures corresponds to the volume of sales) at the end of last year," Artur Sarukhanov, deputy head of the Department for work with importers at Gazprombank Autoleasing, told Izvestia.
Among the main reasons for the market decline, he cited continuing problems in the freight and construction segments, an increase in scrap collection to a third in the price of a new imported truck, rising prices at a conservative rate of reduction in the key rate, as well as competition from used vehicles.
— Let us remind you that in the best years, over 90% of new trucks were purchased using leasing financing. For comparison, according to the results of January–March 2026, only 46.2% of new trucks were purchased by the business on lease," Sarukhanov noted.
The high key rate has a negative impact on the cargo transportation business, said Vladimir Matyagin, an acting member of the Public Council under the Russian Federal Transport Supervision and president of the Gruzavtotrans Association.
— People think: I'd rather sell a fleet of cars, put this money in an account and have more than if I drove for pennies and also worked for a bank, — he said.
In 2023-2024, leasing companies replaced distributors of equipment, Alexander Tsypin, managing partner of the Business Strategy consulting agency, told Izvestia. At the same time, they had neither the proper competence in assessing the solvency of customers, nor an understanding of the very essence of the freight transportation business.
Their money is cheaper.
The extremely low price for transportation in Russia is combined with very high costs for leasing payments and drivers. The situation is also aggravated by the fact that large representatives of e-commerce have entered the freight transportation market themselves with their own vehicles.
"Their money is cheaper than that of transport workers, their IT expertise is higher, and for them transport is a cost, not a profit," Tsypin said.
Go to zero
According to Sergey Kogogin, CEO of KamAZ PJSC, the market will not show a significant recovery in 2026. He estimated its capacity at 45-50 thousand units.
Kogogin noted that KAMAZ PJSC does not expect to make a net profit this year.
"At least go to zero,— Interfax reports his words.
Based on the current dynamics, there is no reason to talk about growth in the segment of new trucks this year, says Artur Sarukhanov.
— The outcome of the year depends on the further rate of reduction of the refinancing rate, as well as the dynamics of the restoration of logistics and development. At best, the segment will repeat last year's figures, while in a realistic scenario it will show a drop of 5-15%," he noted.
They drive without any taxes
The cargo market is always a predictive indicator of the development of the situation in the country's economy, Alexander Tsypin believes. In addition, it is cyclical.
— If we take mainline tractors, then this is a seven-year cycle. If we take dump trucks, then there are more complex cycles. And now, coincidentally, we are at the lowest point of these cycles. I am quite optimistic about 2027-2028. We are entering a new phase of growth on mainline tractors. In other words, these trucks will need to be updated and repaired, and it will take two or three years. Plus, what happened last year, what will happen this year, is some kind of market stabilization," he said.
A state policy in the field of cargo transportation is necessary, says Aletsander Tsypin. The Russian market is defragmented, 65% of the mainline equipment is in private hands, and these are small companies.
— The market, in fact, operates an exchange pricing system. The private sector quite often travels without any taxes. A private trader sometimes just goes for food, without investing either in the repair of equipment or in any other things. And here is the stock market situation, which leads to the classic overproduction market," Tsypin said.
In his opinion, the GosLog digital transport and logistics platform is the first attempt by the state to understand what is happening on the market and to restore some kind of order.
— This is transparency and absolute traceability, electronic documents. Immediately, the segment of all sorts of "small things" collapses, which existed largely due to dispatchers who pick up goods, then shove them into their own and pay in cash. Most likely, old trucks will be squeezed out of the market economically, the cost of owning an old car is still high," says Anton Shaparin, vice President of the National Automobile Union.
In addition, a new strategy for the development of the automotive industry is being prepared, where much attention is being paid to supporting domestic truck manufacturers. As for Chinese trucks, Rosstandart has questions about their safety.
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