The expert assessed the risks of packaging shortages in Russia in 2026

A shortage of packaging in Russia in 2026 is unlikely, but the market may face specific difficulties for certain types of products. This was announced on April 27 by Sergey Novikov, the owner and founder of Gofromir Group of Companies.

According to him, the current situation in the industry remains heterogeneous: a number of segments maintain a surplus of capacity, while others are dependent on raw materials and their cost. The main risks, according to the expert, are not related to production capabilities, but to the sustainability of supplies and the economics of production.

"We are not talking about a total shortage, but about possible local failures. Such a scenario can be realized if several factors coincide — disruptions in raw materials, rising logistical costs and sharp price fluctuations," Novikov said.

According to him, cardboard production in January–August 2025 increased by 6.3% to 4.1 million tons, while domestic demand increased by only 2.1% to 2.9 million tons, which indicates that there is a certain supply reserve on the market.

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At the same time, there is a noticeable increase in prices in the polymer packaging segment. Novikov noted that at the end of March 2026, the cost of certain types of polyethylene increased by 7-12% in a short period of time. Additional pressure is exerted by the rise in the price of raw materials: quotations of propane, butane and naphtha increased by 35-40% in the first half of March, and prices for polyolefins in Asian markets increased by about a third.

"The main challenge today is not the shortage of materials, but the increasing complexity of the procurement economy. Producers and consumers have to quickly adapt to the rising cost of raw materials," he stressed.

Thus, in the near future, the packaging market in Russia, according to the expert, will remain stable, but will remain sensitive to price fluctuations and logistical factors.

Irina Yekimovskikh, founder of the Capital audit and consulting group, told Izvestia on April 24 that the tightening of the tax burden, rising inflation and staff shortages had led to lower profitability and the closure of some companies in Russia. According to her, the most common mistake of a business during a period of falling revenue is an attempt to explain losses by external factors. The second mistake is delaying decisions. The third is the lack of a complete financial picture.