Not all the gold that Magnitogorsk is: Metallurg is wrongly considered the favorite of the Gagarin Cup semifinals

On Friday, April 24, the Gagarin Cup semi-final series will begin. Lokomotiv will play with Avangard, Metallurg will play with Ak Bars. We explain why Kazan should not be considered outsiders in the confrontation with the reigning champion and what details can be decisive in the second pair. The teams from Yaroslavl and Omsk, led by Canadian coaches, have their obvious and hidden advantages.

Metallurg – Ak Bars

Metallurg's game in the regular season left the most vivid impression: Andrey Razin's team broke the KHL record for the number of goals (even if it's worth making allowances for the number of matches that have increased in recent years) and showed bright attacking hockey. In the series of the first two rounds, Magnitogorsk lost to Sibir and Torpedo in one match each, but even if they did not avoid problems, they confidently went on. According to bookmakers and experts, Magnitogorsk residents are the favorites of the semifinal series with Ak Bars. But don't rush to crown Magnitogorsk.

Kazan played in a wave-like manner in the regular season: successful stretches were replaced by failures. At the same time, many of the leaders performed noticeably worse than last year, this applies to Dmitry Yashkin and Artyom Galimov. It was difficult to call Grigory Denisenko's transfer successful. During the season, they got rid of the summer newcomers Berdina, Kalinyuk and Biro, and Khmelevsky, who was bought out of Salavat in the fall, did not shine.

But closer to the playoffs, Ak Bars found their game. And in the series with Traktor and Dinamo Minsk, almost everyone played to the maximum of their abilities. When the main goalkeeper Timur Bilyalov needed a rest, Maxim Arefyev insured him very confidently, and this is his first full season in the KHL. The first five are dragging the team, but the rest are not far behind. Alexey Pustozerov scored a double in the first game in Minsk, Yashkin scored important goals, Denisenko was excellent in the power struggle, and Melon terrified Dynamo with his arrogance.

The striking combination of Kazan deserves a separate analysis. The Nikita Lyamkin–Mitchell Miller pair initially raised great doubts about its feasibility. Miller is defenseless, and Lyamkin has always been more of an attacking defender. And they had really bad matches together, and the coaching staff separated Nikita and Mitch into different pairs at the end of the regular season. But in the playoffs, the first two defenses not only play great in creation, but also make no mistakes from behind (everyone has +13). Miller is more often singled out for individual passes, but the fact that the pair found a balance is more to the credit of Lyamkin, the league's strongest defender at the moment.

If Galimov shone in the series with Traktor, then in the matches against Minsk residents, Barabanov came to the fore — at the same time, Artyom was good as a provocateur, repeatedly exasperating rivals and earning relegation. Plus, the overall Safonov looks very organic in the role of the first center forward of the team.

At the same time, Kazan's playing style is inconvenient for Magnitogorsk, which may not be able to withstand the pressure from the opponent. Even the most productive three of the Limoges – Pinchuk –Enes regular season got lost under the pressure of Ak Bars, and the Magnitogorsk team plays in a similar style. At the same time, the loss of Dmitry Silantyev is often underestimated, but without him, the top three does not look so intimidating: Tkachev and Kanzerov were not very noticeable in the second round. Young Kozlov looks good in a striking combination, but with Silantyev, the link played on a different level.

So far, Kazan looks more preferable in comparison of the goalkeeping lines — Nabokov replaced Smolin in the goal of Magnitogorsk after the only defeat from Torpedo, but he was also not impressed. We know perfectly well the level of the most valuable player of the 2024 playoffs, but Ilya doesn't look too confident this season. And Smolin periodically swam even in games with far from top rivals, but now the degree is noticeably increasing.

The main reward for fans (especially neutral ones), which may be in this series, is a full seven matches. Everyone is already tired of 4-0 and 4-1 — we want a real playoff. The lacy Magnitogorsk and the solid Ak Bars are ready to arrange the winter that they loved so much in the 2000s. In recent years, the teams have rarely met in the playoffs, so now we expect a special drive from this series.

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Ak Bars and Lokomotiv closed their confrontations dry, CSKA managed to take only one match, and Metallurg was one step away from passing on.

Lokomotiv – Avangard

The introductory data before the start of the series is such that it makes it as equal and unpredictable as possible, based on the key factors — the quality of the squad and the level of hockey shown. But Yaroslavl has an advantage on two points. First, Bob Hartley is more experienced and knows how to win in the realities of the KHL. In addition, in terms of gameplay, Lokomotiv still looks more variable than its opponent. The second one is the champion team, which has reached the finals twice in a row, and knows better how to behave in stressful situations.

A long pause between rounds will make certain adjustments to the course of the confrontation. Whoever gets the tone faster will get the advantage. Avangard plays well on the road, has a strong goalkeeper in Nikita Serebryakov and knows how to act patiently. But the same can be said about the opponent. Therefore, we can expect that the series will turn out to be stubborn, with an emphasis on defense, power struggle, with a modest number of goals scored. It's even interesting to see how the teams will manage the puck. Both feel much more comfortable when they have to act as number two. This is especially true for Avangard.

It is generally believed that Alexander Radulov's factor gives Lokomotiv superiority: the influence of an energetic veteran on his team is difficult to overestimate. Nevertheless, the important Yaroslavl strikers Egor Surin and Maxim Berezkin are not very noticeable yet. This is an ongoing problem and possibly a hidden potential. Avangard has someone to answer to. Konstantin Okulov is having an outstanding playoff run. Michael MacLeod dominates the faceoffs and is good at fighting. The long break allows the Omsk team to count on the return of the injured Vyacheslav Voynov, Semyon Chistyakov and Alexander Volkov. It seems that Lokomotiv is a little stronger only in some nuances.

However, Avangard, which is rushing to the title, should also have additional motivation — the Yaroslavl team defeated the Hawks in the seventh match in the previous two playoffs. The time is ripe for revenge, nurtured by old leaps and bounds. Guy Boucher, who likes to use various psychological techniques, will definitely remind you about it.