The first since the end: The US Congress is losing the support of voters on the eve of the elections

The approval rating of the US Congress has dropped to a historic low: 86% of Americans negatively assess the activities of parliamentarians. The results of the polls reflected high-profile scandals in the ranks of the ruling elite, rising gasoline prices and general tensions related to the conflict in the Middle East. Against this background, the country is entering the election cycle: in the fall, Americans will have to choose a new Congress. What is the danger of such a crisis of confidence for the US political system and how it will affect the vote — in the Izvestia article.

Anti-rating Leader

Only 10% of Americans support the work of the US Congress, which is almost the lowest value in the entire history of observations. It was worse only in 2013, when the country was threatened with a technical default. At the same time, the share of dissatisfied rose to 86%, which corresponds to a record level, according to a survey by the Gallup analytical company.

"The public attitude towards the Congress remains extremely negative, as never before in the entire history of Gallup observations. Congress has experienced periods of deep public disapproval before, including in the months leading up to the 2013 government shutdown, and in some cases approval recovered relatively quickly after a change in the situation," the report says.

However, this time the situation looks tense. Congressional elections are expected in the country in November. The Republican Party currently holds the majority of seats in both chambers. US President Donald Trump is doing his best to preserve this result, but it will not be easy to mobilize supporters.

There are many reasons for the drop in the rating. Among the most noticeable is the escalation in the Middle East, which led to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Americans admit that they do not fully understand what goals the White House is pursuing on another continent. While the conflict is already hitting wallets significantly: the average price of gasoline is now $4.05 per gallon compared to $3.16 in the same period last year.

At the same time, the report indicates that the positions of the Democrats had little effect on the overall picture — their supporters are traditionally critical of the work of the authorities. Republicans played a key role: their approval level for the work of Congress dropped sharply after jumping to 63% in March 2025.

The decrease in support is due to disappointment in the ability to promote key initiatives. In particular, the bill "on saving America", which provides for the abolition of voting by mail and mandatory confirmation of the citizenship of voters, was approved by the House of Representatives, but did not receive support in the Senate. This increased the discontent of supporters of the Republican Party.

The survey data was also influenced by ethical scandals. It was during the period of its holding that Democrat Eric Swalwell and Republican Tony Gonzalez resigned. Both congressmen were under investigation by the Ethics Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives on allegations of sexual harassment, including against subordinates.

Other factors include the prolonged suspension of the Ministry of Internal Security (DHS). Democrats are pushing for a review of the immigration police budget after the incident in Minneapolis, where two US citizens were shot dead during an operation against illegal migrants. And Republicans are opposed to any restrictions on the department. It also reinforces the feeling of inefficiency of the government.

The crisis of the system

Americans are unhappy, regardless of their party affiliation. Gasoline prices are rising almost daily, in some cases changing even within one day. Accordingly, this affects the entire sales system, affects the cost of other goods, which forms a chain of negative changes and a deterioration in the quality of life.

— There have been negative periods in the history of the United States, but a steady and long-term negative trend on such a scale is a rare phenomenon. Against this background, the president, who promised not to involve the country in foreign policy adventures and will focus on internal problems, participates in them, which only worsens the situation, says Natalia Yeremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University.

Do not forget about the "Epstein case" — both Republicans and Democrats turned out to be "tarnished". Scandals related to allegations of illegal insider trading, as well as the record-breaking government shutdown last fall, played a role. All this affects the perception of parties and increases distrust, although in different ways.

Among Democrats, the progressive wing focuses on defending democratic institutions and the climate agenda, while moderates focus on social programs and economic stability. For Republicans, the gap is even more noticeable, according to Polina Shabrova, an employee of the division of the Center for North American Studies. Moderate voters worry about rising prices, while the conservative core and MAGA supporters focus on immigration and security issues.

"At the same time, wavering voters expect the government to solve practical problems: inflation, rising prices and migration," the analyst points out. — As a result, it turns out that different groups of voters have different priorities.

This increases the political divide and makes it difficult to reach a compromise in Congress: the parties disagree not only on how to solve problems, but also on which ones to consider the main ones.

— The budget process, which was originally conceived as a tool for coordinating national priorities, has actually turned into a means of political bargaining. An illustrative example is the 43—day shutdown in the fall of 2025 around the extension of subsidies under Obamacare. He clearly demonstrated that even socially sensitive issues are used by parties primarily to mobilize their own electorate," the analyst explains.

Competitive advantage

Today, a paradoxical situation is developing in the United States: voters can tactically support "their" representatives, but at the same time remain skeptical of Congress as an institution, Polina Shabrova points out. This makes the behavior of the electorate less predictable and makes it more difficult to predict elections.

— Nevertheless, the analysis of electoral cycles allows us to make cautious forecasts. Historically, the president's party has tended to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections. And now most of the forecast models also indicate a high probability that the Democrats will be able to gain control of the House of Representatives," the expert notes.

At the same time, the situation in the Senate remains more uncertain. The fact is that senators are elected from states, not from individual districts, so the result is more influenced by the candidates' personal reputation. In addition, elections are held there less frequently — once every six years, and the composition of the chamber changes much more slowly.

As a result, the most likely scenario is a divided government: the Democrats take the House of Representatives, while the Republicans retain the majority in the Senate.

— At the same time, the chronically low level of trust in institutions creates additional risks. It can both mobilize a protesting electorate and reduce turnout among disillusioned voters. In addition, there is an increased susceptibility to narratives about "unfair elections," which can cast doubt on the legitimacy of the results, regardless of their outcome.

And here the question arises: will the current crisis cause deeper changes in the American political system? As Eremina points out, in the United States, it is traditionally based on checks and balances, but now, in fact, it is looking for a new balance.

— However, the choice of voters remains limited — they still have to choose between the same political forces. As a result, it is more about changing some politicians to others without fundamental changes. This will continue to lead to periodic crises in the work of government institutions, including shutdowns," the expert concludes.