Armed continent: Germany seeks to become a leader in the militarization of Europe

Russia takes seriously Germany's desire to strengthen its military potential and thus take a leading position in Europe, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Dmitry Lyubinsky told Izvestia. According to him, not even all of Germany's closest neighbors have a clear opinion about Berlin's military plans. Earlier, Germany published a new military strategy, the goal of which is to increase the army to 460,000 people by 2039 and make it the strongest in Europe. Experts believe that the modernization of the German armed forces will require a lot of time and resources, as well as increase the risk of a direct military conflict between the West and Russia.

What threats does the strengthening of Germany's military might pose?

Germany's plans for militarization, in particular the intention to increase its armed forces, "can and should be considered as an application for leadership functions in Europe," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Dmitry Lyubinsky told Izvestia.

— We take this quite seriously, as do many of Germany's allies in Europe. Not even all of [Germany's] closest neighbors perceive this unambiguously," the diplomat said.

Earlier, the German Ministry of Defense announced a strategy for the development of the armed forces for the period up to 2039. The document is called "Responsibility for Europe" and aims to make the German Armed Forces the strongest army on the continent. The plan provides for an increase in the number of military personnel from the current 185.4 to 260 thousand, and reservists from 70 to 200 thousand. As a result, Germany will have 460,000 combat-ready troops.

"If voluntary measures are not enough to achieve the target number of personnel, we will have to discuss and make a decision on compulsory service,— said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

Compulsory military conscription in Germany was abolished in July 2011, but the law on a new model of military service came into force on January 1. He obliges young people to undergo a medical examination and restores military registration. According to the new law, adult men are required to fill out a questionnaire, answering questions about physical fitness and readiness to join the Bundeswehr.

In the new strategy, Russia is identified as the main threat from which Germany must protect Europe. The classified part of the document lists various scenarios of a military clash with the Russian Federation, according to media reports.

Flight burden: Russia is ready to discuss with the United States the issue of missile deployment in Germany

However, so far Moscow and Washington have no dialogue on strategic stability.

Who in Europe fears the militarization of Germany

Berlin has seized the lead in strengthening its own security with an emphasis on the militarization of the economy, since in 2026 alone it allocated more than €108 billion for the development of the military-industrial complex, and earlier a general plan for the rearmament of the Bundeswehr for the next 10 years in the amount of €377 billion was adopted, German political scientist Egor Belyachkov told Izvestia.

— By investing in the military-industrial complex, the government creates an engine for the economy within the framework of the military orders system. However, the effect of such a policy can only be short—term, as it requires constant financial injections, which will be difficult in a situation of economic restructuring," the expert noted.

Germany has a long period ahead of modernizing its armed forces and bringing them to a qualitatively new level, Artem Sokolov, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.

After Germany ceased to be a NATO frontline state in the 1990s, the Bundeswehr accumulated many serious problems that Berlin intends to solve.

According to Sokolov, the concern of Germany's neighbors is not the danger of revanchism, but rather rivalry in the military-industrial complex. For example, France is interested in its armed forces being considered the most powerful in the EU, especially since they can rely on a nuclear component, which Germany does not have and is not expected to have.

Germany is ready to cooperate with France in this area, and the parties are already negotiating a joint nuclear deterrent. One of the scenarios is Berlin's participation in financing the modernization of the French nuclear arsenal in exchange for providing guarantees of protection.

However, the revanchism factor cannot be completely discounted. Some Polish political circles continue to demand reparations from Germany, and they will not be pleased with the new German rearmament programs. Greece is also looking at these processes with concern — Berlin supplies Turkey with modern submarines and components for armored vehicles. Athens fears that the strengthening of the German military-industrial complex will lead to even greater arms supplies to Ankara, which threatens Greece's security in the Aegean Sea.

Risks of conflict between Russia and the EU in the coming years

The rise of German military power is only part of a broader process of EU militarization. Last year, Brussels moved into the active phase of implementing large-scale programs of rearmament and centralization of defense policy aimed at achieving "full defense readiness" by 2030.

In particular, it is planned to allocate 800 billion euros for the modernization of the European military-industrial complex and investments in Ukrainian enterprises. By 2027, member countries should jointly purchase at least 40% of weapons (currently this figure is below 20%), and by 2028, at least 55% of these purchases should be arms supplies from Europe and Ukraine. The Military Schengen project is being implemented to create the infrastructure to quickly transfer troops to the eastern borders of the EU.

Lithuania is considered the most likely place where an armed conflict between the EU and Russia is possible. By 2027, Germany plans to deploy a brigade of 5,000 soldiers in this country. On April 23, the Russian Security Council stated that Vilnius was creating a hotbed of tension near the borders of the Kaliningrad region. During the exercises of the Joint Expeditionary Forces, which were created on the initiative of the United Kingdom in 2014, scenarios for the blockade and capture of Kaliningrad are being worked out, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said. The ECO, in particular, includes Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Finland, Sweden, as well as the Baltic States.

"The presence of a permanent and fairly large military contingent of the Bundeswehr in the immediate vicinity, at a base in Lithuania, creates additional threats of direct involvement of the German armed forces in a possible confrontation between Russia and Western countries," says Artyom Sokolov.

Moscow will respond convincingly to the militarization of Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin said last October. According to Russian officials, the Russian Federation takes into account the militarization of the EU when modernizing all types of weapons. Special attention is being paid to the strengthening of groups on the western flank, including the Kaliningrad region and the borders with the Baltic states. The main argument remains the nuclear forces, which, according to the president, have been upgraded by 95%, and their marine component by almost 100%.