Pipe time: when will oil pumping from Russia via Druzhba resume

In order for oil to flow through the Druzhba pipeline after a three-month break, the Russian side must receive an application for pumping. This was stated to Izvestia by Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation. Earlier, Budapest announced the resumption of the southern Druzhba branch: the Hungarian company MOL confirmed the readiness of the infrastructure to receive Russian raw materials in Hungary and Slovakia. The technical pause ended, in fact, immediately after the Hungarian elections, which led to a change of government in Budapest. The resumption of Druzhba supplies was a key condition for lifting Hungary's veto on the approval of the EU loan to Kiev in the amount of €90 billion and the adoption of the 20th package of sanctions against the Russian Federation. However, the oil did not physically flow through the pipe by the evening of April 22. To do this, an application for pumping must be submitted, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. At the same time, Russia announced the suspension of oil transit via Druzhba from Kazakhstan to Germany.

Ukraine unblocked oil supplies via Druzhba

On April 22, the Hungarian oil and gas company MOL confirmed its readiness to receive Russian oil via Druzhba. Its representatives noted that the first volumes of raw materials will arrive in Hungary and Slovakia in the near future. Earlier, Ukraine announced the completion of the repair work that it allegedly carried out on its section of the pipeline. This ends an almost three-month break, which has raised questions from European consumers from the very beginning. However, in order for oil pumping to begin, important formalities must be completed.

— The MOL company is also involved there. Contacts are conducted through corporate lines. I do not know the details, but there should have been a request for leveling. [I do not know] whether there was an exchange of these letters, which are provided for such cases — in case of a stop or resumption. This is rather a corporate issue," Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.

Oil pumping through Druzhba stopped at the end of January. Kiev officially explained this for technical reasons. However, Budapest and Bratislava were skeptical of this version, considering the termination of oil supplies as a politically motivated decision and pressure. At a time when Hungary and Slovakia are critically dependent on stable supplies of Russian fuel, such actions threatened the energy security of the region.

Russia has demonstrated its willingness to fulfill its obligations. Moscow emphasized that there are no technological obstacles to the resumption of transit, and the contractual agreements with Hungary remain in force.

The resumption of oil pumping through the Druzhba pipeline has no strategic importance for Russia and does not change the general trend in energy relations with the EU, political analyst Vadim Trukhachev believes. According to him, the European market is moving towards a complete abandonment of Russian energy resources. Under these conditions, Moscow should proceed from the fact that there will be no sustained demand from Europe for Russian oil in the future, and any supplies are temporary, he told Izvestia.

Vadim Trukhachev attributed Kiev's decision to restore transit to a change in the political situation in Hungary. The key factor was the change of power in the country following the parliamentary elections on April 12.

The victory of the opposition Tisa party led by Peter Magyar ended the 16-year rule of Viktor Orban, whose policies often contradicted the line of Brussels. Magyar is expected to be sworn in as prime minister on May 9.

However, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia that, in Trukhachev's opinion, they do not address the fundamental contradictions between Ukraine and Hungary, in particular on the issue of the rights of the Hungarian national minority in Transcarpathia.

It was Budapest that in recent months blocked the adoption of a number of EU decisions, including the allocation of a loan of €90 billion to Ukraine and the promotion of another sanctions package against Russia. The main condition of the Hungarian side was the restoration of oil transit through Druzhba. Now that this issue is close to resolution, Brussels is counting on a softening of Hungary's position. On April 22, it was reported that the permanent representatives of the EU countries at a meeting in Brussels approved the 20th package of sanctions, as well as the allocation of a loan to Ukraine.

Nevertheless, the future course of the new Hungarian leadership remains uncertain. Peter Magyar declares his intention to restore the country's full participation in the EU and NATO, as well as to regain access to European funding. On the other hand, he emphasizes that Hungary is not interested in direct financing of Kiev and intends to continue energy cooperation with Russia, including oil purchases. This ambivalence reflects the difficulty of choosing between economic interests and political commitments within the European Union.

Slovakia has also adopted a pragmatic position. The Prime Minister of the Republic, Robert Fico, bluntly stated that Bratislava would not support new sanctions against Russia until it was convinced of the real restoration of transit.

Russia to stop pumping oil from Kazakhstan

The resumption of the southern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline is important primarily for the countries of Central Europe, which remain critically dependent on this route, said Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Hungary receives up to 70% of its oil, Slovakia — up to 95%, which makes any supply disruptions sensitive to their energy security, the expert added.

While the southern direction of Druzhba is reviving, the northern one risks becoming completely empty. The fact that starting from May 1, Russia intends to stop pumping oil from Kazakhstan to Germany was confirmed on April 22 by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Valery Andrianov considers the transit stop to be a natural response to Berlin's unfriendly actions.

"Back in the fall of 2022, the German authorities actually stole Rosneft's assets, putting them under state control," the expert recalled. — So now let the concern about supplying these plants with raw materials be a headache for the German authorities, especially in the context of the global fuel crisis.

After the sabotage attacks on the pipeline facilities on January 27, the Druzhba system is unstable, so the lack of technical capabilities for pumping raw materials is a weighty argument, Dmitry Tortev, a member of the expert council of the State Duma Committee for the Protection of Competition, told Izvestia.

"The tension in relations with Germany, which provides military assistance to unfriendly parties and has transferred Rosneft's assets under external management, makes it politically illogical to maintain even an indirect energy bridge with Berlin, so our country's actions fit into a long—term strategy to reorient exports," he said.

In 2025, the export of Kazakh oil to Germany amounted to 2.146 million tons (an increase of 44% by 2024), and in the first quarter of 2026 - already 730 thousand tons.

Dmitry Tortev believes that stopping the transit will force Kazakhstan to redirect about 3 million tons of oil along other routes. According to him, this will inevitably lead to a discount, and the loss of revenue may amount to about € 2.5 billion. At the same time, the main impact will be on the German refinery in Schwedt, which will lose 17% of its raw materials (about 43 thousand barrels per day). The replacement of these volumes through the port of Gdansk will provoke an increase in fuel prices in Europe by 0.05–0.1 euros per liter. Despite the loss of part of the transit fees, the gain for Russia lies in protecting its own export flows.

Priority is now being given to developing our own supplies, especially since, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Russian oil is already trading at a discount and at a premium in a number of areas. Thus, the strategic security of exports becomes more important than the immediate benefits of transit.

In these circumstances, the further development of the situation will depend on the willingness of European states to separate economic interests from political conditions. The story of Druzhba has clearly shown that the sustainability of energy supply in Europe is still largely based on cooperation with Russia, which has no alternative in the short term.