Southern influx: Ukraine is preparing to receive hundreds of thousands of migrants
A demographic crisis is raging in Ukraine — the population is declining, the birth rate is falling. Against this background, officials started talking about the fact that they would have to solve the problems by importing migrants. Experts emphasize that in order to restore the balance, it is necessary to receive at least 300 thousand visitors annually, and social networks report that the first Bangladeshis and Africans have already arrived in the country. For more information, see the Izvestia article.
Demographic gap
Even before the beginning of its history, Ukraine was considered a country of demographic disaster. The loss of people has been recorded for three decades, in 2021 the population decreased by 421 thousand people, that is, in fact, in one year then a large regional center disappeared.
The crisis was observed in 23 of the 24 regions, only the Kiev region was in the black, where people from all over the country came to work. The east and the center of Ukraine were considered the most problematic, where the death rate was two or even three times higher than the birth rate.
The total population of the country as of January 2022 was 41.1 million people. At the same time, 51.6 million people lived in the republic at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union. In other words, the country has lost more than 10 million people in three decades. At the same time, even officials called the statistics service's data underestimated.
After the start of the SVR, the situation became even more catastrophic. According to the research of the Institute of Demography of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the population has decreased by 8 million people in four years, that is, about 33 million inhabitants remained in the country.
Other sources speak of even more serious problems. The explanatory note to the draft state budget for 2026 emphasized that only 28.7 million Ukrainians declared or registered their place of residence.
Numerous international studies indicate that the country has become a leader in global demographic anti-rating: Ukraine has the highest mortality rate and the lowest birth rate. In general, there are about three funerals for every birth, and a large migration outflow continues to be recorded.
Other important indicators have also dropped. In particular, men's average life expectancy has decreased by seven years, while women's has decreased by almost four years. The waiting lists for admission have practically disappeared in kindergartens. Until recently, some excitement persisted in Kiev preschool institutions, but this year the alarm began to sound there.
The well-known Ukrainian demographer Ella Libanova says that the total losses of the country during its time are estimated at 10 million people. "I'm talking about additional mortality and an additional decrease in the birth rate. At the same time, mostly young people are dying and leaving, so the aging process has intensified in our country. This is the demographic gap," she explains.
An endless dead end
Forecasts for the future are also disappointing. According to most estimates, if the fighting ends soon, 25-28 million people will remain in the country by 2050. This figure is mentioned, for example, by Alexander Gladun, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. "We currently have the lowest number of births in almost 250 years," he emphasizes.
Vasily Voskoboinik, head of the Migration Policy Office, also believes that 25-28 million people will remain in a quarter of a century. According to him, people will continue to leave the country after the end of hostilities, because in the territory controlled by Kiev, the population will suffer from poverty and economic stagnation.
The Washington Post, citing Ukrainian demographers, also writes that by 2050 the population will decrease to 25 million, and in 2100 only 15 million people will remain. The article says that the Ukrainian government hopes for the return of refugees who left the country due to the fighting. In fact, many of them have already settled in a new place and are not going to their homeland.
A separate problem concerns the fact that the country is losing the younger generation due to migration and fighting. According to the UN, in a quarter of a century, the number of Ukrainians aged 15-24 will decrease to 6.6%. Experts in this regard say that the authorities will not be able to do without raising the retirement age to 70 or even 90 years.
Africans on graves
The demographic crisis is hurting the labor market. The number of employees is decreasing due to the loss of population. A lot of problems are also associated with forced mobilization — many men are hiding at home. Those who do go to work run the risk of being detained by military commissars, who are often on duty right at the entrance of factories and business centers.
In such circumstances, there was talk in the country that the situation could not be fixed without mass recruitment of migrants. Demographer Ella Libanova believes that Ukraine cannot do without migrant workers. According to her specific logic, the country's poverty will supposedly be a plus, because hardworking Africans and Asians will come, and not those who want to be on welfare.
Vasily Voskoboinik, head of the Migration Policy Office, notes that in order to improve demographic indicators, it is necessary to attract at least 300 thousand migrants per year. "In the future, Ukraine's needs will only grow. In the next 10 years, the shortage of labor resources will be 8.7–8.8 million," he expects.
At the same time, not only experts, but also officials have recently started talking about attracting migrants. The government has submitted to the Parliament a bill that would simplify the procedure for the employment of foreigners in the country. And the head of the president's office, Kirill Budanov, announced a revision of the list of "migration risk" countries in order to facilitate the import of labor resources.
At the same time, they are already reporting that there are more visitors. For example, Dmitry Degtyar, co-founder of a large recruitment company, said that workers from India and Bangladesh are increasingly appearing on construction sites. And photos from one of the cemeteries in Cherkassy, where Africans dig graves, appeared on social networks.
However, all these are isolated cases so far. It is difficult to say whether a mass flow is possible. On the one hand, Ukraine remains a poor country, where fighting is also taking place. The average salary is 28 thousand hryvnias ($640). For comparison, in Bangladesh, this figure is $200-400, meaning there is a difference, but not that big.
In addition, the state of the country's economy is a big question. Now it is kept afloat by large-scale Western financing. For some reason, Ukrainian officials are confident that aid will continue to arrive after the end of hostilities, although there are no guarantees for this. If Kiev is left alone with its problems, then there will be no talk of any new jobs.
People of Freedom
Under favorable conditions, migrants may well go to Ukraine, said Vladimir Oleinik, a former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada. And this, in his opinion, is a paradox, because the Maidan in 2013-2014 was held under nationalist slogans.
— I remember they said then that the "ruler" in the country should not be a "stranger", but a Ukrainian. And what is the result? The land was sold to Americans and Europeans, and an agreement was recently concluded with the US administration on the subsoil. And now they're going to populate the country with those "aliens." At the same time, migrants will also be freer people — they will be able to leave Ukraine, the borders will be open for them, and they will not be afraid of shopping mall raids," the ex—parliamentarian argues.
Meanwhile, political scientist Mikhail Pavlyv believes that there is no need to talk about a large—scale migration flow - no one will go to Ukraine in significant numbers during the fighting. But after graduation, the prospects are also vague.
— I think there will be devastation, unemployment, and rampant crime in the country. I don't see any employment opportunities for newcomers here. In general, there is no option to restore demographic balance, the point of no return has been passed. The only way to improve the situation is to come to terms with Russia," the expert emphasizes.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
