Deferred mechanism: Will a new truce help restart negotiations on Iran
Even if negotiations continue, the United States and Iran remain far from a compromise, political analysts on both sides of the ocean are confident. The United States claims that it extended the ceasefire at the request of Pakistan in order to give the parties to the conflict one last chance to coordinate positions. According to a number of American media sources, this pause may range from three to five days. At the same time, in Tehran, the decision of American President Donald Trump to postpone the strikes was perceived as a new attempt to gain time to prepare a new military operation. In general, the extension of the truce does not eliminate key contradictions, but only postpones the development of another round of escalation, the probability of which remains extremely high.
Trump gave Iran a few days
On the night of April 22, Donald Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire until the Iranian side submits agreed proposals, and negotiations do not bring concrete results.
According to the head of the White House, the decision was made, among other things, at the request of the Pakistani leadership. The relevant appeal was made by the Commander-in-Chief of the Pakistan Army, Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, who called for additional time to coordinate positions. Islamabad has been actively mediating between the parties in recent days, trying to ensure the continuation of negotiations.
US President Donald Trump
According to Musa Aasi, a correspondent for Al-Mayadeen TV channel in Islamabad, Iran has not yet made a final decision on participating in the negotiations at the official level, as evidenced by the absence of even a preparatory delegation. According to him, not a single Iranian group has arrived in the capital of Pakistan, neither negotiating nor technical. At the same time, Islamabad does not consider the mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran to be completed: restrained optimism remains in Pakistani political circles.
Meanwhile, the pro-American media is actively promoting the narrative that the impasse in the negotiations is allegedly caused by a deep internal split in Iran. In their interpretation, there is a struggle between the military and civilian elites in the country, where the supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, allegedly lost the ability to coordinate decision-making. Special emphasis is placed on the increased role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
If you follow this version, the United States itself could "shoot itself in the foot", provoking the strengthening of hardliners in Tehran and thereby complicating the achievement of a compromise. In particular, the elimination of figures such as Ali Larijani, who had political weight and the ability to balance the interests of various centers of power, actually weakened the moderate link within the system. As a result, the positions of a tougher line focused on law enforcement agencies have strengthened, and the negotiation process has become less flexible.
Nevertheless, Washington remains cautiously optimistic about the prospects for a deal. According to US media reports, the White House administration believes that an agreement on ending the conflict and resolving issues related to the Iranian nuclear program is still achievable. According to Axios sources, Iran has actually been given a limited "window" — from three to five days, during which it must formulate its position.
Initially, a new meeting of the delegations was scheduled for April 21. And on the same day, Trump stressed that he did not intend to extend the truce, accusing Iran of repeated violations of the ceasefire. Moreover, the American president admitted the possibility of an early resumption of strikes, declaring his readiness to act by force in the event of a failure of negotiations. Nevertheless, a few hours later, he preferred to give diplomacy extra time.
Iran did not ask for an extension of the truce
Iranian officials say they have not requested an extension of the truce, and the US sees the move as an attempt to buy time to prepare for a possible military operation. Tehran points out that the American naval blockade is actually continuing and is regarded as an act of aggression, which undermines confidence in the negotiation process.
The country's Foreign Ministry also emphasizes that a final decision on participation in new rounds of negotiations has not yet been made. The reason is the "unacceptable actions" of the United States, including continued pressure and excessive demands from Washington.
Mutual accusations of violation of the truce remain an additional factor of tension. In these circumstances, both sides demonstrate their willingness to resume the conflict.
— This is an impasse, but not because the negotiations in Islamabad failed, but because of the reality of the war, the determination of the Iranians to achieve their goals, the desire of the Israelis to maximize this war to their advantage in Lebanon, as well as because of the strategic incompetence of the United States. The United States and Israel cannot end this conflict with a military victory over Iran. The most they can count on is more advantageous strategic and political positions," Matthew Ho, an Iraq War veteran and former captain of the US Marine Corps, told Izvestia.
According to Axios, two scenarios were discussed in the US administration — large-scale strikes on the Iranian energy infrastructure and the continuation of negotiations. As a result, the second option was chosen, which, according to sources, is due both to the desire to avoid further escalation and to internal political considerations.
Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, believes that the extension of the truce by the United States is more of a tactical nature and is aimed at gaining time. Washington is interested in delaying the new escalation phase for several weeks, thereby "separating" the two stages of the conflict in time and presenting them as separate crises, he told Izvestia.
At the same time, the White House does not hide: in the event of a failure of negotiations, a military scenario is real. Donald Trump has explicitly stated that he is ready to return to strikes if no agreement is reached. Moreover, according to him, the pause itself was used to strengthen the US military capabilities, which is perceived as a signal of pressure on Tehran.
Skepticism about the prospects for a diplomatic settlement persists among US allies. The Israeli side admits that it will not be possible to reach an agreement, and in parallel with Washington, it is preparing for the resumption of hostilities. At the same time, the "Lebanese issue" remains a serious challenge. In early April, Israel and Lebanon held direct talks in Washington for the first time in decades with the mediation of the United States and agreed on a brief truce, which they are trying to extend. However, even after that, Israel and Hezbollah exchanged blows. New negotiations at the ambassadorial level are scheduled for April 23 in the United States.
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