Painful actions: Trump extended the truce with Iran for the sake of negotiations
The ceasefire between the United States and Iran received an unexpected extension: on the evening of April 21, President Donald Trump announced that the pause would remain until Tehran submitted its proposals and negotiations were brought to a result. This decision reduced the risks of immediate escalation, but did not resolve the key contradictions between the parties. Immediately after Trump's statement, Iran's state Television announced its position that Tehran does not recognize the extension of the truce and may or may not observe it, guided by its own national interests. Amid recriminations and uncertainty, the risk of a return to military escalation in the Middle East is rapidly increasing.
Iran is waiting for the lifting of the naval blockade
The decision to postpone the trip of US Vice President Jay D. Vance to Pakistan, taken on the evening of April 21, was an alarming signal for the negotiation process between Washington and Tehran. Initially, the visit was seen as a key element of a diplomatic attempt to extend the truce, which was due to expire on April 22. At that moment, it seemed that the risks of a return to military confrontation had increased markedly.
According to CNN, after reports of the cancellation of JD Vance's flight, key representatives of the American administration arrived at the White House — Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and CIA Director John Ratcliffe. Apparently, Washington sees the situation around the negotiations with Iran as critical and requiring coordination at the highest level.
And a few hours later, closer to midnight Moscow time, US President Donald Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire in the conflict with Iran until Tehran submits its proposals and negotiations are completed. According to him, the pause will be maintained for as long as it takes to reach an agreement.
In addition, the American leader said that he had decided to postpone possible strikes on Iran at the request of the Pakistani leadership. According to Trump, the corresponding appeal was received from Army Commander-in-Chief Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, who asked for time to develop an agreed position and continue the negotiation process.
Immediately after Trump's statement, Iran's state Television announced its position that Tehran does not recognize the extension of the truce and may or may not observe it, guided by its own national interests.
Vice President of the United States J. D. Vance
Even before Trump's statement, the Iranian side stressed that it had not made a final decision on participating in the talks in Pakistan. In Tehran, they talked about conflicting signals from the United States and directly linked the prospects for dialogue with Washington's actions, including new sanctions and incidents with Iranian ships. Even tougher statements were made in the Iranian parliament: without lifting the naval blockade, a second round of negotiations is impossible in principle.
The situation was becoming acute precisely because of the time factor. The Islamabad talks were originally conceived as an opportunity to extend the ceasefire.
At the same time, the day before, Donald Trump stated that he was not interested in extending the pause, accusing Iran of violating the truce. At the same time, he remains confident in the possibility of concluding an "excellent deal." On the other hand, the United States, according to him, used the truce to rearm — this is an obvious warning to Tehran.
If negotiations fail, the parties still risk returning to a state of open confrontation. Possible scenarios include attacks on Iranian infrastructure, escalation in the Persian Gulf, and threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This will inevitably affect global markets, primarily oil prices.
Said Khan, a professor at Wayne University in Detroit, told Izvestia that the rejection of Vance's visit looked more like a tactical move than an admission of impasse. In his opinion, Donald Trump found himself in a difficult negotiating position and tried to find a way out of the conflict while maintaining the opportunity to declare diplomatic success. The harsh rhetoric of the White House in this situation, according to Saeed Khan, is intended to demonstrate strength and strengthen the future negotiating positions of the United States, even if the actual balance of power does not fully correspond to such statements.
— The United States and Israel cannot end this conflict with a military victory over Iran. The best they can expect is a more advantageous strategic and political position compared to those that existed at the beginning of the war. No matter what form the end of the war takes, it will be perceived as a defeat for the United States," Matthew Ho, an Iraq War veteran and former captain of the US Marine Corps, told Izvestia.
Will the fighting resume
The current situation is balancing between detente and escalation, but the advantage is still leaning in favor of the first scenario, according to Egyptian international relations specialist Tarek al-Bardisi.
In his opinion, the escalation observed in recent days was tactical in nature and was primarily aimed at improving the negotiating positions of the parties, rather than moving to a full-scale conflict. The dialogue between Washington and Tehran has not reached an impasse, but has only temporarily stalled, and may be resumed in the next rounds. Neither side is interested in returning to war, the expert believes.
For the American administration, the disruption of Vance's visit could be a serious diplomatic blow. The White House, which relied on a quick deal, is facing the threat of failure of a key foreign policy initiative. For Trump himself, this is a risk of losing the image of a politician who is able to reach agreements even in the most difficult conditions. Perhaps that's why, in order to make a deal, he extended the ceasefire.
Tehran, however, is also acting pragmatically. The demand to lift the naval blockade reflects not only a political position, but also an economic necessity: restrictions on oil exports increase pressure on an already weakened economy. Iran, apparently, expects that Washington is not interested in a sharp escalation that could provoke an increase in fuel prices.
Said Khan noted that the postponement of the US Vice President's trip did not in itself mean a final breakdown in negotiations and an imminent return to hostilities. According to him, the extension of the truce indicates that the dialogue between the parties is likely to continue, albeit at a lower level at first, without the participation of key political figures.
Iraqi analyst Safaa al-Assam emphasizes that the negotiations in Pakistan were initially considered as the "last wagon" for extending the truce. According to his assessment, expressed even before Trump's statement, neither the American president nor the Iranian leadership are interested in a transition to a full—scale war: for the United States, this threatens to spike oil prices and hit electoral positions, while for Iran, it risks economic collapse in the face of sanctions and a naval blockade.
— I think the most likely scenario in the next 24 hours is not the resumption of hostilities, but the announcement of a "technical extension" of the ceasefire regime with the possible postponement of negotiations. In the absence of even a minimal compromise, the risk of uncontrolled escalation will increase significantly," the expert predicted in an interview with Izvestia.
Matthew Ho assesses the situation more pessimistically, not excluding that the current crisis may lead to a resumption of hostilities. At the same time, he draws attention to the fact that Trump is known for his tendency to extend deadlines at the last moment, which leaves room for maneuver, although, according to him, Israel's position remains an additional factor of uncertainty.
So far, official statements remain restrained, but the positions of the parties look tough and incompatible. Washington demands concessions on the nuclear program and regional policy, while Tehran insists on lifting the blockade as a precondition.
The main question now is no longer whether the meeting will take place in Pakistan, but whether the parties will be able to avoid a return to open conflict.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
