Dear reactor: Europe has set itself up for thermonuclear fusion

In the light of the new energy crisis in Europe, it was decided to urgently develop the abandoned nuclear power industry. Germany, where there is not a single operating nuclear power plant left, promises to make a breakthrough: to build the world's first commercial thermonuclear reactor. The pan-European large-scale ITER project has also been launched. Izvestia found out what is behind these ambitious plans, how much time and money they will require, and whether they will rid Europe of hydrocarbons.

Achieved the "desired"

Germany's abandonment of nuclear energy is a process that has spanned two decades. Back in 1986, the Germans were greatly frightened by Chernobyl, then the "greens" began to gain strength, for whom the rejection of peaceful atom was a key point of the program.

Already in the 2000s, the government of Gerhard Schroeder agreed with energy concerns (E.ON, RWE, EnBW, Vattenfall) on the gradual closure of nuclear power plants as soon as they generate the remaining amount of electricity.

The rollback happened with the arrival of Angela Merkel: the life of the nuclear power plant was extended by an average of 12 years — until the 2030s. The atom was considered as a "bridge" for the transition to renewable energy sources. But Fukushima buried everything. After the disaster at the nuclear power plant in Japan, "anti-nuclear" hysteria prevailed: it was decided to close all operating nuclear power plants in the country. By April 2023, the last three stations in Germany were shut down: Izar-2, Neckarvestheim-2 and Emsland.

However, Germany could not do without "Green hydrogen" and the sun. Instead, we had to increase coal—fired generation, import electricity (including from French nuclear power plants), and, of course, cheap hydrocarbons from Russia. Collectively, Russia provided about a third of all energy consumption in Europe's largest economy.

It is necessary to raise

Now in Germany, it seems, they intend to make a U-turn. According to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the country is planning to launch the first thermonuclear reactor.

"In the German government, we not only relied on nuclear fusion technology in our high—tech program, but also set ourselves the goal of commissioning the first thermonuclear reactor in Germany," he told reporters at the Hanover Industrial Fair.

Such ambitious plans fit well into the renewed energy agenda of the European Union.

In the midst of the Middle East crisis, which has paralyzed oil and gas supplies, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, recently admitted that reducing the share of nuclear energy in Europe was a strategic mistake. Now the EU intends to revive the peaceful atom. In addition to traditional technologies, promising nuclear technologies should also be developed.

Ambitious plans

The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project has already been launched. The European-wide financing of ITER from 2021 to 2027 is 5.61 billion euros. At the same time, according to some estimates, the construction of the first experimental installation in France will cost at least 19 billion euros.

35 countries are participating in the construction of ITER, including Russia, China, the USA, India, Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan and the EU countries. Russia has provided the project with a powerful scientific base — more than 10 institutes and scientific organizations from our country are involved in it.

Von der Leyen also announced a new European strategy for small modular reactors. To this end, the EU will create a guarantee fund worth 200 million euros to support private investment in new nuclear solutions.

Germany's plans to build a thermonuclear reactor are a completely independent national project. So far, it is planned to allocate about 1.7 billion euros from the German budget until 2029. Plus — to attract investments.

A great future

Indeed, thermonuclear fusion could be a real salvation for Europe, with its high dependence on fossil fuels and extreme vulnerability to energy crises.

Firstly, it is an almost inexhaustible fuel. The main fuel for the first reactors is deuterium and tritium. Deuterium is extracted from ordinary water — there is enough of it in Europe. Tritium is not found in nature, but it is planned to be "mined" inside the lithium reactor itself. And lithium reserves in the earth's crust (including deposits in Europe, for example, in Portugal, Finland, Austria) will last for centuries.

Plus, there are no carbon dioxide emissions and minimal radioactive waste.

In addition, fusion plants can operate around the clock and regardless of the weather, complementing renewable energy sources (RES), depending on the vagaries of the weather.

However, technical barriers remain enormous, including the need to hold plasma at temperatures above 100 million degrees and achieve a sustainable positive energy balance on an industrial scale, says Nadezhda Kapustina, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

Decades

In Germany, high hopes are already being pinned on the promising technology. As Merz noted, it will be "a revolution in the field of energy production and in the energy supply of our country."

Such expectations are largely based on the fact that, unlike ITER, an international scientific experiment to demonstrate the possibility of thermonuclear fusion, the German project has been aimed at creating a commercial power plant from the very beginning.

The bet on thermonuclear fusion as a technology of sovereignty is obvious: after the gas shock and rising import risks, Berlin is looking for manageable low-carbon sources, says Vadim Petrov, deputy director of the Unified Scientific Center of the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, VNII Ecology.

However, even here everything depends on the fact that the technology of thermonuclear fusion is still at the experimental stage.

"Even many of its proponents admit that commercial use is still several decades away. This means that neither Germany nor Europe can count on it in their quest to achieve climate neutrality by 2045 and 2050, respectively," points out the publication Clean Energy Wire.

You can't do without hydrocarbons

According to experts, even a full-fledged return to "classical nuclear energy" in the foreseeable future in Germany is questionable.

In the entire EU, nuclear power provides about a quarter of electricity, while in Germany, after the shutdown of reactors in 2023, it is zero.

When Germany returns to traditional nuclear energy, it is expected that there will be strong political resistance and a lack of infrastructure that has been dismantled in recent years. The construction of new reactors will require decades of approvals and investments, which the German economy cannot afford in the context of deindustrialization, Kapustina notes.

Thermonuclear fusion looks more politically attractive, but the first reactor will definitely not become the "king of energy supply".

— This is not a large-scale generation. A real contribution to the balance of Europe is possible no earlier than the second half of the century in the form of the first commercial invention, and then in a very optimistic scenario," Petrov notes.

Thus, these tools are clearly not the solution to today's European energy problems.

Interestingly, the technology has not yet fully confirmed its commercial suitability — the ability to produce more energy than it consumes.

According to estimates by Eurofusion, the European Consortium for the Development of Thermonuclear Energy, industrial fusion power plants in Europe are unlikely to appear before 2070-2080, and their potential contribution to the energy mix will not exceed 20-30%.