A sure breakdown: will the US and Iran be able to extend the expiring truce
The second round of talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, scheduled for April 22, will take place amid mutual accusations of truce violations. The seizure by the Americans of an Iranian merchant ship in the Gulf of Oman, the blockade of Hormuz and the harsh rhetoric of the parties have increased distrust and called into question the very possibility of constructive dialogue. The two-week ceasefire expires on the same day, and the prospects for its extension are still uncertain. At the same time, Washington and Tehran demonstrate opposite approaches to negotiations: the United States insists on a narrow agenda related to the country's abandonment of its nuclear program, while the Iranian side refuses to discuss its defense strategy and demands the easing of sanctions and the unfreezing of assets.
The dialogue between Washington and Tehran is on the verge of collapse
Negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad are scheduled for April 22, but their holding is still in doubt due to the sharp escalation of the situation around the truce.
Iran doubts the seriousness of Washington's diplomatic intentions and has already accused the United States of undermining the two-week ceasefire announced on April 8. At the same time, the decision to send a delegation to Pakistan, according to Axios, was made in Tehran at the last moment after high-level consultations.
The American side, on the contrary, demonstrates confidence that negotiations will take place. Washington was waiting for a signal from Tehran throughout Monday, April 20, despite reports of disagreements within the Iranian leadership. According to media reports, representatives of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps put pressure on the negotiators' position: they allegedly insisted on a tougher line, in particular, on refusing dialogue in the event of the continuation of the American blockade.
Officials in Islamabad said the second round of talks should take place on schedule, and delegations from both countries have already arrived in the capital and are preparing for dialogue. According to the American media, the meeting is expected in the morning hours of April 22. Nevertheless, the background for the negotiations remains extremely unfavorable.
In particular, Tehran called the seizure of the Iranian vessel Touska by the US military "maritime piracy" and a gross violation of international law. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, in a conversation with his Pakistani counterpart, stressed that such incidents undermine the very possibility of continuing the negotiation process.
The truce expires on April 22. If the parties fail to reach an agreement, the resumption of hostilities is possible. Moreover, Donald Trump has already allowed such a scenario to develop. In an interview with CNBC, he stated that he was not interested in extending the truce, while accusing Iran of violating the ceasefire. At the same time, the US president is confident in the success of the negotiations — according to him, there is still room for concluding an "excellent deal." The head of the White House stressed that the pause in hostilities was used by the American side for rearmament, which, according to him, strengthened the US position.
Tehran also warned that they are ready for any development of events.
- We do not trust our opponents, and if they make a mistake, Iran will immediately resume hostilities. Our armed forces are fully prepared for this," Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said yesterday.
There is a possibility that the United States, under the guise of diplomacy, continues its policy of maximum pressure on Iran, including military action at sea, according to international relations expert Hadi Issa Dalul. At the same time, Iran, in his opinion, demonstrates a combination of strategic patience and rigidity — it does not succumb to provocations, but it is also not ready to accept negotiations under pressure. Real progress is possible only with a change in the US approach: lifting the blockade, returning frozen assets and switching to dialogue without preconditions, which could indicate Washington's readiness for agreements, the expert believes.
Disagreements on key issues persist
For Iran, maintaining even a temporary truce remains a critical factor for internal stability, said Umar Abdel Ali, editor of the Egyptian newspaper Al-Akhbar. According to him, the pause in hostilities allows Tehran to partially stabilize the economic situation, contain inflation and slow the decline of the national currency. At the same time, the demands for unfreezing assets and easing sanctions remain, but the Iranian leadership is aware that a complete breakdown in negotiations could result in even more serious economic losses.
For the administration of Donald Trump, the extension of the truce is primarily of political importance, believes Umar Abdel Ali. This provides an opportunity to demonstrate progress and maintain the negotiating momentum without escalating further. The resumption of the active phase of the conflict, in his opinion, can negatively affect oil prices and world markets at a time when Washington is trying to avoid additional economic shocks.
— The most likely scenario would be the announcement of an extension of the truce for at least two to four weeks, – the expert. — Such a step will allow the parties to continue the dialogue in a more stable environment. There is no reason to expect a large—scale agreement to be concluded soon - the extension of the truce will rather become an interim mechanism that will keep the situation from returning to open confrontation.
Key differences between the parties remain. First of all, we are talking about issues of uranium enrichment and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Reports about a possible transfer of highly enriched uranium reserves by Iran in Tehran are categorically denied, and they claim that this issue was not discussed at any stage of the negotiations.
According to Donald Trump, the agenda of possible negotiations with Iran is reduced to a single issue — preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. There is allegedly no discussion of other topics, and the task itself, as he claims, is "simple" in nature.
Nevertheless, the positions of the parties on the nuclear program remain diametrically opposed. Iran does not intend to agree to stop uranium enrichment. CNN, citing a source in Tehran, reported that Tehran "will never agree" to such conditions. Earlier, as the channel notes, the United States proposed suspending uranium enrichment for 20 years, but Iran put forward a counterproposal to limit itself to a five—year period, which the American side rejected.
At the same time, according to other media reports, Tehran is seeking a significant easing of the sanctions regime by the United States, and also insists on unfreezing assets worth about $ 20 billion. These requirements are considered as a key condition for advancing the negotiation process.
Iran's tough stance on security issues remains an additional constraint on the dialogue. According to the media, the country's defensive capabilities, including the missile program, are non-negotiable in principle. Tehran also believes that the ongoing naval blockade by the United States undermines the prospects for negotiations and makes it extremely difficult to reach agreements.
Another problem is the "Lebanese issue." In early April, Israel and Lebanon held direct talks in Washington for the first time in decades, mediated by the United States, and also agreed on a short-term truce, which Washington is trying to extend. However, the situation remains tense: the Israeli army has already launched attacks on the south of neighboring countries after the start of the ceasefire, and the Hezbollah movement declares its readiness for retaliatory actions. Negotiations at the ambassadorial level between Israel and Lebanon will take place on April 23 in the United States.
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