Close friend: Trump is losing allies in the White House over Iran
Donald Trump risks losing the support of his inner circle due to the war with Iran and scandalous statements. According to American experts, a camp is gradually forming in the administration, which can be headed by US Vice President Jay Dee Vance. And the altercation with the Pope promises Trump the loss of an important Catholic electorate, which is represented, among others, by Vance. The split is in the hands of the Democrats — most likely, they will regain the House of Representatives and can win the presidential election in 2028 even with the "downed pilot" Kamala Harris. What is happening in the Trump administration is in the Izvestia article.
Dark horses in the Trump administration
The chaos that Donald Trump sowed in the Middle East could not but affect the positions of the 45th and 47th presidents of the United States, both among ordinary Americans and among his team. Even considering all the controversial decisions of the Republican since the beginning of his second term in the White House, the war with Iran promises the most negative consequences. Of course, most members of the current administration supported him, at least in words — if creating a global crisis without consulting Congress can be considered standard practice for Trump, then without the approval of key ministers it would be technically impossible.
— The whole cabinet consists of compromisers — people who say only "yes". I doubt that any of them have objections - they are fanatical adherents of the idea of American exceptionalism. But even if they had doubts, they would not have voiced them, as this would have led to the loss of positions, at best, to dismissal from business and would have damaged their future political prospects," Matthew Ho, an Iraq veteran and former captain of the US Marine Corps, told Izvestia. He will also work at the State Department and the Pentagon.
However, this does not mean that there is real agreement among high-ranking Republicans. According to the leading American media, one of the most ardent opponents of what is happening in the Middle East is US Vice President Jay Dee Vance. By the way, since the beginning of the conflict, the second face of the United States has practically disappeared from the information field, despite Vance's love of provocative speeches. Which is only worth his caustic speech in Munich last year or a live call to Trump at a rally in support of the eventually defeated Orban.
— Vance was allegedly against the war from the very beginning. Other people in Trump's inner circle may push him to end it if it does not lead to victory and entails ever greater political costs. Tulsi Gabbard, director of National Intelligence, was reportedly also against it, although she did not openly disagree, Jeremy Kuzmarov, editor—in-chief of the political magazine Covert Action, told Izvestia.
Curiously, Gabbard almost immediately openly declared the discrepancy between the goals of the United States and Israel in the war against Iran, dispelling the illusion of a cohesive offensive. And the potential impeachment of Hegseth further undermines Trump's political legitimacy, as he was very close to him and remains one of his main aides, the expert stressed.
Hegseth recently appeared on the news agenda not only with the prospect of retirement, but also with a slight media embarrassment. On April 15, at a service at the Pentagon, the Minister of Defense (or War) read a prayer allegedly used by the crew of the Sandy 1 mission, the search and rescue operation in Iran to rescue two downed American pilots, which raised doubts about the ability of the United States to continue the war at all. According to Hegseth, this is an excerpt from the book of Ezekiel, chapter 25, verse 17. However, as the press noted, the main part of the prayer exactly repeated the paraphrased monologue of the character Samuel L. Jackson from Pulp Fiction.
To be fair, American politicians do often use quotes from films to evoke an emotional response from the audience — many "cinematic" phrases have become part of the cultural code of Americans. However, Hegseth did not choose the best time. After all, at the same time, another trick of Donald Trump is being discussed, who this time literally encroached on the holy by insulting the Pope.
Trump vs. the Vatican
A week ago, the US president called Leo XIV weak in the fight against crime and terrible for foreign policy, as well as too liberal, "pandering to left-wing radicals" in response to criticism of his anti-Iranian policies. Finally, Trump said that the pontiff became the first American to lead the Catholic Church solely because of him, not to mention the provocative AI images where the US leader appears in the image of Jesus.
"I posted this and thought it was me in the image of a doctor," the president explained, then deleted the post. It is worth noting that the most senior Catholic in the Trump administration is J. D. Vance, Philip Brenner, professor of international relations and affiliated professor of history at American University, recalled.
— I think that Trump's attacks on the pope have caused a rift between him and some of his supporters, as well as members of his administration. However, I don't think Vance or Rubio will turn their backs on him unless they see that his situation is hopeless and they will have the opportunity to seize power or gain huge political capital ahead of the next election," said Jeremy Kuzmarov.
However, Vance, while not wanting to go into an open confrontation, supported Trump rather than condemned him. Although, of course, such an attack on the most influential religious figure in the world will not leave a trace for the reputation of the President of the United States. Senior American cardinals expressed support for the pontiff, including in his disagreement with the tightening of migration policy in the United States. And last weekend, Chicago's religious communities led an entire interfaith rally in support of Leo XIV.
Even before the start of the war with Iran, Trump's position among American Catholics was very shaky. In a survey by the PRRI (American NGO Public Religion Research Institute), his popularity among white Catholics barely reached 53%, among Latin Americans, which is not surprising, only 25%, although this is already 12 percentage points less than immediately before the elections in 2024. An IPSOS poll published after the outbreak of hostilities showed that only 46% of white Catholics approved of them, and 64% want to end the war with Iran altogether, even if not all goals are achieved.
It is important to clarify that Catholics are not usually considered Trump's main electorate — as a rule, they are Protestant evangelicals. But even if he and the Republican candidates can survive a 5-10 percentage point drop in support among their key religious voters — they mostly represent "safe", traditionally Republican districts and states — the party may not be able to withstand such losses among Catholics due to their large numbers and historical concentration in democratic countries. In the United States, the Baptist news agency Baptist News Global writes.
How will this affect the US elections?
The loss of the religious electorate will become a real problem in 2028, when Vance, Rubio and other candidates enter the presidential race. At that stage, they can use this topic to attract the votes and support of religious voters or to distance themselves from the president, says Matthew Ho.
Donald Trump's rating is now at the lowest of his entire second term — 37%, according to NBC News. The main reason for the fall is "crisis fatigue." Rising energy prices and lingering tensions with Iran are alienating independent voters, who secured his victory in 2024.
J.D. Vance, on the other hand, is showing steady growth as the 2028 favorite with a 43% rating, according to the Yale Youth Poll. He successfully accumulates the support of the MAGA core, acting as a "young and disciplined" follower of the course, while free from the president's personal anti-rating. His main rival was Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose rating reached 35% among Republicans, according to CPAC/Chosun. The head of the State Department is gaining points at the expense of moderate conservatives and party donors who see him as a more predictable alternative to Vance.
Tulsi Gabbard holds the attention thanks to her media presence. Despite her difficult confirmation in office (52 votes in favor and 48 against during the Senate vote), according to Ballotpedia, her rating is stable among those who appreciate anti—elite rhetoric, a tool of political populism based on the opposition of "honest people" and "corrupt/cut off from the life of the elite."
Florida Governor Ron Desantis, once considered Trump's real rival, maintains the status quo: his approval rating stands at 50%, according to Emerson Polling, and is growing explosively because he is focused on the state, deliberately distancing himself from the "toxic" federal agenda in order to stay "clean" by 2028.
The opposition, represented by the Democrats, faces the problem of excessive "recognition." Kamala Harris, who suddenly burst into the information space, seems to want to take revenge, but in the hypothetical primaries of 2028 she leads with a result of only 20%, according to the Yale Youth Poll. Voters still remember the crushing defeat of 2024, which prevents her from becoming the undisputed leader.
Governor Gavin Newsom is breathing down her back with 19% nationwide and 52-55% support in his California, according to PPIC. His rating is growing due to aggressive criticism of Trump's economic policy, which makes him the "face of resistance" in the eyes of progressive youth. The real sensation could be Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. His approval rating in the key swing state exceeds 55%, and nationwide recognition is growing due to his pragmatism. Shapiro scores points by contrast: while Newsom is associated with liberal California, Shapiro promotes the image of an "effective manager" who is able to negotiate with Republicans.
However, the Republicans are still in a losing position for the midterm elections in November. The main driver of the changes was the shift of independent voters to the opposition: today they support the Democrats by a margin of 50% against 28%. Thus, the "elephants" are likely to lose the House of Representatives, and Trump will actually lose the opportunity to pursue major initiatives through Congress, turning out to be a "lame duck" two years before the end of his term. Of course, most Congressional Democrats will immediately initiate a series of investigations into the head of the White House, which will further damage the Republicans' ratings ahead of the 2028 presidential election. For Democrats, this is a chance to prove that 2024 was an accidental mistake, and for Republicans, it is a signal of the need for an urgent rebranding in the form of Vance or Rubio.
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