Conversational progress: Russia looks positively at restarting dialogue in Istanbul

Moscow is positive about the resumption of the Istanbul format, but this is not a priority for Russia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at the Antalya Forum in Turkey. However, according to him, Western countries are trying to make Ukraine a trigger for a global threat. The idea of a new aggressive military bloc consisting of Britain, the EU, Turkey and Ukraine is also emerging in Europe. Experts believe that Istanbul really remains the most likely venue for possible negotiations between Russia, the United States and Ukraine. However, according to their assessment, significant progress in the dialogue is unlikely without a change in the positions of Ukraine and the EU.

Results of Sergey Lavrov's visit to Turkey

The Russian Foreign Minister arrived at the Antalya Diplomatic Forum in Turkey on April 17. The format appeared only recently — in 2021, but Sergey Lavrov visits it every year. The forum gathers representatives from different parts of the world, including even Latin America. That year, 20 heads of State and Government and 40 foreign ministers came to Antalya. But it doesn't seem to have affected the city in any way: buses with tourists are still running around, and the golf courses are full of players.

Among the great powers, it is Russia that makes full use of the Antalya site. The United States, for example, does not pay such attention to the event of its NATO ally and usually sends a less representative delegation. The EU has announced special representatives on certain issues, for example, Luigi Di Maio, who deals with the Persian Gulf region. China is also represented mainly by experts this time.

The main meeting in the Minister's program was expected to be talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. The diplomats greeted each other warmly. The previous time, they spoke by phone on April 14, discussing, among other things, the prospects for resuming the trilateral format of negotiations on Ukraine.

This time, the venue facilitated the negotiations — the warm resort of Antalya seemed to set up an open dialogue without strict protocols. The parties confirmed the desire of Moscow and Ankara for constructive cooperation to develop effective solutions to resolve the crises, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

After the meeting with his Turkish counterpart, Sergey Lavrov addressed the forum audience. The hall turned out to be full even half an hour before the start. Moreover, even representatives of Ukraine came to listen to the speech of the Russian minister, the Izvestia correspondent found out. Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis was among the audience, taking a seat in one of the last rows away from the cameras.

— We perceive positively the possibility of resuming negotiations in Istanbul. This topic is not the number one priority in our affairs. We did not impose negotiations on anyone," Sergey Lavrov said.

In the current circumstances, Turkey could become the venue for new negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement, Vladimir Shapovalov, Deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, told Izvestia. The last round of the Russia—USA—Ukraine dialogue was held on February 17-18 in Geneva, but the Russian side emphasizes that it supports holding negotiations on a more neutral platform. In January, they were held in the UAE, but now Abu Dhabi is more occupied with Middle Eastern issues.

Last year, Istanbul hosted three rounds of direct contacts between the delegations of Russia and Ukraine. The sides have made great progress on humanitarian issues, with exchanges of prisoners and bodies of the dead. But Kiev did not respond to the proposals of the Russian Federation on the creation of working groups and truces in certain sectors of the front.

Meanwhile, the West is seeking to make Ukraine a trigger for a global threat. Sergey Lavrov also warned that Russia should not test its patience with the strikes of Ukrainian UAVs from the Baltic States.

"One day, one's patience runs out, and I think it's even good that no one understands where this red line is," he said.

Earlier, cases of Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia through Finland and the Baltic states became more frequent. The European Commission claims that the EU did not open its airspace to drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Prospects for dialogue between Russia and the West

However, more and more European countries are calling for dialogue with the Russian Federation. By the way, Slovenian President Natasha Pirc-Musar was also present at the forum, and in her speech she called the refusal to negotiate with Russia Europe's main miscalculation. And she is not the only one who shares this position.

"Sooner or later, negotiations will have to be conducted with Russia, this is geography," one of the European diplomats, who wished to remain anonymous, told Izvestia.

However, the current authorities in Paris, London and Berlin have publicly put themselves in positions from which it is impossible to move away without completely losing face in the eyes of voters, Sergey Lavrov noted.

"We can hardly expect our French and British colleagues to take a reasonable approach now,— the minister stressed.

One of the lines of division within NATO was the conflict between the United States and Iran, in which Washington refused to help most of the members of the North Atlantic Alliance.

— NATO is not in the best condition, we can probably all admit that. We do not interfere in the internal affairs of the alliance," he said.

At the same time, the idea of a new military bloc is beginning to take hold in Europe, which will include the EU, Turkey, Great Britain and Ukraine, but even it will still remain aggressive.

The situation in the Middle East

The second important topic of the forum was the conflict over Iran, which is obviously more relevant for Turkey than Ukraine. Even the passing Minister of Foreign Affairs of this country, Andrei Sibiga, did not arouse much interest among the journalists sitting in his path.

Sergey Lavrov stressed that one of the key goals of the American operation in Iran was the control of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is pursuing a similar goal in Venezuela. However, the worsening situation in the Middle East should not distract from old problems.

"When we look at what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz, I would really not like us to lose sight of the Palestinian problem, and, by the way, very difficult processes are underway in Syria," Lavrov stressed.

Leonid Tsukanov, an orientalist and consultant at the PIR Center, noted that Russia's current agenda in the Middle East focuses not so much on bilateral issues as on the problems of the region as a whole. Specifically, issues related to energy security, air transportation, and food. And for this, the Russian Federation is in contact with all legitimate actors in the Middle East.

"Moscow promotes the idea that it has no opponents in the Middle East, and demonstrates its intention to work with all countries on equal terms, including helping to solve problems," he told Izvestia.

According to the Russian Foreign Minister, many countries will now have to give up the habit of believing those who have deceived them more than once, and the hegemon will have to give up the habit of imposing everything.

Sergey Lavrov concluded that the multipolar world is at the very beginning of the road, and the transition to it will be painful.