Naval bravado: Europe creates a mission to clear the Strait of Hormuz

Negotiations on the future of the Strait of Hormuz go beyond the regional agenda. The truce between Washington and Tehran is gradually expiring, and European countries are trying to develop their own format for ensuring the safety of navigation, including possible demining of the water area. However, these initiatives are accompanied by disagreements with both the United States, which insists on tougher pressure on Iran, and Russia, which criticizes the increased military presence in the region. On April 17, Tehran announced the partial opening of the strait for the truce period, which signaled a temporary easing of tensions. A new round of contacts between the United States and Iran is expected in the coming days.

France and Britain discussed the clearance of Hormuz

On April 17, at the initiative of France and the United Kingdom, an international conference on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key and at the same time most vulnerable maritime arteries of the world economy, began in Paris. The forum is attended by representatives of European countries, the United Nations and the Gulf States. The main topic is ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait, through which about 20% of the world's oil and a significant part of liquefied natural gas supplies pass.

French President Emmanuel Macron said that Paris and London intend to accelerate work on the creation of a mission to escort merchant ships and ensure their safety in the Persian Gulf. According to him, this is an initiative coordinated with the UK, which should be independent of the parties to the conflict.

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, stressed that the mission under development would begin work only after the ceasefire. He confirmed that London, together with Paris, will lead multinational efforts to protect freedom of navigation and support mine clearance.

At the same time, Europe emphasizes that it is a question of a protective mission. Earlier, US President Donald Trump criticized NATO allies for refusing to participate in unblocking the strait, but European capitals say they are not involved in the conflict and were not informed in advance about Washington's actions.

Germany is also ready to join possible efforts. Chancellor Friedrich Merz argues that Berlin can participate in ensuring the safety of navigation, preferably under a UN mandate. According to Reuters, Germany is considering the possibility of deploying minesweepers and reconnaissance vessels, and a base in Djibouti could become the logistics center for a potential operation.

At the same time, attempts to promote the relevant resolution in the Security Council were previously blocked by China and the Russian Federation. As the Russian permanent representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, emphasized at the time, Moscow could not support a document that sets a dangerous precedent for international law and actually gives carte blanche to continue aggressive actions.

At the same time, Russia is also involved in developing solutions to ensure transit security. As Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia earlier, Moscow is involved in relevant consultations. At the same time, the Federation Council criticized the initiative of France and the United Kingdom to hold a separate summit on freedom of navigation. They believe that such proposals may lead to an increase in the military presence in the region and do not contribute to de-escalation.

The conference taking place in Paris reflects the unilateral approach of Western countries to the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, according to international relations expert Hadi Issa Dalul. According to him, the forum participants ignore the key cause of tension — the actions of the United States, including the declared naval blockade, which he regards as a violation of international law.

Hadi Issa Dalul told Izvestia that for a long time Iran has ensured the stability of navigation in the strait, without jeopardizing commercial transit, even under sanctions pressure. In his opinion, Washington's current rhetoric accusing Tehran of destabilization does not correspond to the real situation. It is the policy of pressure and limitation of Iran's economic opportunities that creates risks for the global energy sector.

Extension of the truce between Iran and the United States

Under these conditions, Iran has decided to partially open the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping during the truce period. This step may be perceived in Washington as a signal of Tehran's readiness to make concessions on the issue of freedom of navigation. The market's reaction to these statements was instantaneous: global oil prices accelerated their decline, and the cost of a barrel of Brent dropped below $88 for the first time since March 11.

Despite this, the situation around the sea routes remains tense. According to Iranian state media reports, military vessels are prohibited from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which in fact retains elements of a restrictive regime.

Trump thanked Tehran for opening the Strait of Hormuz, and in his statement he called it "Iranian." At the same time, the American leader announced the continuation of the naval blockade, despite the announced opening of the strait. In Truth Social, Trump stressed that the strait is "open for business and free passage," but the naval blockade against Iran will remain in effect until "100% completion of the deal," adding that most of its points have already been agreed.

This means that even with a partial easing of the Hormuz agreement, the parties retain leverage, and the shipping issue itself remains directly linked to the US-Iranian negotiations, the success of which is not guaranteed by anyone.

The truce between Iran and the United States expires on April 22. Despite Trump's statements about the possibility of a deal and Tehran's willingness to discuss its nuclear program, key differences remain, primarily on issues of uranium enrichment and control over the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, Axios reported that the United States and Iran have made some progress in discussing a three-page memorandum of understanding that could form the basis for ending the conflict. The American leader also claims that Tehran will allegedly transfer all its highly enriched uranium to Washington, and the United States will not pay compensation to Iran for these supplies.

Mediation efforts are underway in parallel. Pakistan is working on organizing a new round of consultations between Washington and Tehran. According to Reuters, the possibility of signing a memorandum of understanding followed by a comprehensive agreement within 60 days is being discussed. The visit of Pakistan's Army Commander-in-Chief Asim Munir to Tehran on April 15 allowed progress on a number of sensitive issues, but the specific dates of the negotiations have not yet been determined.

At the same time, Washington is increasing pressure on Tehran. On April 16, the Pentagon announced the launch of the Economic Fury program aimed at tightening the sanctions regime, and also confirmed its readiness to cut off supplies to Iran as part of the naval blockade.

Expert Hadi Issa Dalul pointed out that a possible breakdown of the truce after April 22, in his opinion, would be a consequence of Washington's policy, which narrows the space for the diplomatic process.

Nevertheless, the United States remains cautiously optimistic. Donald Trump admits holding a new meeting with Iran in the coming days and does not rule out extending the truce, although, according to him, it may not be necessary if agreements are reached quickly. According to the Pakistani press, the second round of negotiations will take place at the end of next week, however, Axios writes that it may take place in Islamabad on April 19.

The Iranian side linked the opening of the strait to a general de-escalation, including the Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire. On April 16, these countries agreed on a 10-day truce, but its sustainability is questionable. On the eve of the ceasefire coming into force, the Israeli army launched large-scale strikes on Lebanese territory. Only 10 minutes before the truce, it attacked 11 settlements in the south of the republic. In just one day, more than 380 targets of the Shiite movement were attacked, the IDF claims.

"The initiative to cease fire in the Lebanese—Israeli direction is primarily related to Washington's desire to gain time for a negotiating track with Iran," said retired Lebanese General George Nader. According to him, the administration of Donald Trump demonstrates a willingness to make tactical concessions in order to preserve the possibility of dialogue and pave the way for a new round of consultations.

At the same time, the expert told Izvestia that the truce itself is largely symbolic. He draws attention to its short-term nature and the lack of real changes on the ground: the parties maintain their positions, which allows them to use the pause to regroup forces, build up reserves and gather intelligence information.

At the same time, George Nader is skeptical about the likelihood that Iran will make significant compromises on the key issue of its nuclear program. In the absence of progress, according to the expert, the parties risk facing an escalation again, the consequences of which will directly depend on the outcome of the upcoming negotiations.