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- How will it fit on the map: 10 million Russians will have to report to the Federal Tax Service for transfers
How will it fit on the map: 10 million Russians will have to report to the Federal Tax Service for transfers
About 10 million Russians may come under increased tax control due to transfers to cards, experts interviewed by Izvestia predict. We are talking about those who regularly earn more than 200 thousand rubles a month on rent, part-time jobs, services or small-scale trade, but do not register the status of self-employed or sole proprietor and do not declare income. The self—employed with incomes above 2.4 million per year will also be in the spotlight, hiding part of the income - there are about 200 thousand of them. Against this background, the demand for cash may grow by 3 trillion rubles in 2027. Which transfers will be considered suspicious and what it will lead to — in the Izvestia article.
How many people will be monitored for transfers
Unconfirmed non-cash income in excess of 2.4 million rubles per year may automatically fall under the control of tax authorities, the Federal Tax Service said. At the end of March, the government submitted to the State Duma a bill strengthening control over the income of individuals. The document, in particular, gives the tax service the right to receive data from the Central Bank on citizens with signs of undeclared entrepreneurial activity. The criteria have not yet been disclosed. If adopted, the measure will be effective from 2027.
Currently, the tax service's access to banking data is limited: individual account statements are requested only during verification or international data exchange with the consent of the Federal Tax Service management. Amendments can significantly expand these opportunities. At the same time, it is proposed to tighten the identification of account holders through the INN and strengthen import control. Izvestia sent requests to the Federal Tax Service and the Central Bank.
Experts interviewed by the editorial office believe that the changes will affect millions of citizens. We can talk about 7-10 million people, estimated Alexey Krylov, an expert of the Council of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI) on the financial market and investments, and economist Andrey Barkhota. Sofya Lukinova, head of the legal department at VMT Consult, gives a similar assessment. According to her, this will primarily affect those who regularly receive income from services, renting out space or trading, but are not registered as self-employed or sole proprietor. Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam IC, also talks about "several million" potentially affected individuals.
Which citizens will especially attract the attention of the tax service
Theoretically, all individuals can be controlled, according to Andrey Shubin, executive director of Opora Russia. However, the key is clear criteria: regular transfers from different persons, the repeatability of amounts, and signs of entrepreneurial activity. The majority of citizens will be under supervision, Larisa Sorokina, associate professor at the Faculty of Economics of the RUDN University, believes. According to her, "shadow self—employment" (we are talking about those who provide services but are not properly registered) reaches 20-22% of the employed - about 15 million people, but not all of them have a high income.
The problem of substitution of labor relations is highlighted separately — when a company hires a self-employed person and requires the same from him as from full-time employees, but without official registration. In 2024, such signs were detected in 128 thousand citizens, and by the beginning of 2026, their number could grow to 160 thousand, Alexey Krylov notes. At the same time, the self—employed, who want to stay in their mode, but have crossed the threshold of 2.4 million and decided to hide part of their income, is no more than 1-2%, or about 200 thousand people, estimated Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
Not only shadow entrepreneurs will be targeted, but also citizens with mixed incomes, such as those who combine work with part—time jobs or rent out housing, says Sofya Lukinova from VMT Consult.
The most vulnerable areas with frequent transfers are the beauty industry, repair and construction, site work, car service stations, and rental of real estate, said Yulia Kovalenko, deputy head of the Higher School of Economics of Moscow Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. According to her, the reason for checking may be regular receipts from different persons, especially on the same day, but it is important not to confuse such operations with household fees, for example, for school needs.
First of all, the attention will be attracted by citizens with stable income of 200 thousand rubles per month and above — freelancers, landlords and private specialists. One-time and irregular transfers are usually not included in this zone, says Yaroslav Kabakov from Finam.
What will the increased control over individuals lead to?
Increased control will almost inevitably result in citizens starting to look for workarounds, says Sofya Lukinova from VMT Consult. According to her, some of the payments may go into cash, especially in the field of household services. Income splitting is also likely — the distribution of income between relatives or trusted persons in order not to exceed the limits. The use of intermediaries or nominal recipients is also possible. Such mechanisms are already known in practice and usually develop in parallel with stricter controls, she added.
Economist Andrey Barkhota predicts similar trends: citizens will use cash more often, barter and distribute cash flows through loved ones. According to him, the demand for cash may grow by 2-3 trillion rubles within a year after the introduction of new measures.
Already, the majority of those who do not want to disclose income choose cash payments, said financial advisor and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. According to him, about 87% of such citizens ask for payment with "live" money, the rest use other people's accounts.
Some citizens, on the contrary, can legalize themselves by registering as self-employed, says Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global. In this case, the tax rate will be 4% when working with individuals versus 13% personal income tax. However, according to her assessment, the majority, especially in the regions, will continue to use gray schemes.
The SME Corporation notes that the introduction of self-employment has already helped many to come out of the shadows. An important factor was the opportunity to combine this status with official work — this is especially important for landlords, tutors and private specialists.
At the same time, the budget may receive additional revenue from increased control. Larisa Sorokina from RUDN University expects about a 3-4% increase in revenue. The Federal Tax Service estimates the effect to be at least 50 billion annually from 2027.
Increased control can really increase tax collection, says Andrey Shubin of Opora Russia. However, he emphasizes, it is important not to create excessive pressure on a bona fide business and maintain the stability of tax rules.
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