Channel without communication: Russia sees no prospects for direct dialogue with Ukraine

The resumption of direct talks with Kiev is not being considered without the participation of the United States, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. To restart the bilateral dialogue, at least a reaction to the memorandum submitted by Russia in Istanbul is necessary. Currently, contacts between Moscow and Kiev are limited mainly to humanitarian issues. Moreover, this work continues on the basis of the trilateral agreements reached in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, the parliamentary coordination group on its issues clarified to Izvestia. At the same time, experts believe that after the Middle East crisis, Washington may not return to the Ukrainian settlement with the same degree of involvement.

Prospects for dialogue with Kiev

Negotiations on Ukraine, which revived at the beginning of 2026 after the Abu Dhabi and Geneva rounds, have actually come to a pause due to the conflict in the Middle East. Washington's attention, acting as the main mediator in the settlement, has now shifted to Iran. However, Russia is waiting for the United States to return to the Ukrainian issue — a direct dialogue between Moscow and Kiev without intermediaries is hardly possible in the current situation.

— I don't think there is a willingness to negotiate directly without providing any kind of good offices, that is, without mediation. We still see no reason to say that Ukraine has seriously and significantly changed its position, at least judging by its rhetoric," Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador for crimes of the Kiev regime Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia.

According to him, a lot of work has been done to build a dialogue in parallel formats between Russia and the United States and Ukraine and the United States. In this context, the Ukrainian track should not be considered in isolation from Russian-American relations, so Moscow is interested in continuing the dialogue with the United States, as well as with Ukraine through the mediation of the United States. At the same time, the problem lies not only in the format itself, but also in the lack of progress on previously submitted documents.

— Without additional pressure on Ukraine, I don't think it's promising to wait for a direct dialogue, because we haven't worked out any documents yet. More than six months ago, when it was in the Istanbul format, the last meeting was held, Russia handed over the text of the draft memorandum, and so far we have not received anything on it," Miroshnik said.

As part of the second round of direct talks in Istanbul on June 2, 2025, Russia and Ukraine, in particular, agreed to continue the exchange of prisoners of war, including seriously wounded, seriously ill and young servicemen, as well as the bodies of the dead. In addition, at that meeting, Moscow handed Ukraine a memorandum on a cease-fire and a long-term settlement.

Then, on July 23, the third and last round took place, after which there were no new face-to-face contacts between the parties until the resumption of negotiations in Abu Dhabi on January 23, 2026, with the mediation of the United States. At the same time, it is worth noting that the bilateral meetings in Turkey were also the result of Washington's efforts.

Judging by the latest signals from Ankara, the Istanbul site has not been removed from the agenda: as reported by the Chairman of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation Valentina Matvienko, who visited Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan again proposed Istanbul to continue negotiations on Ukraine.

Status of negotiations

The territorial issue remains one of the most difficult areas in this process. As Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted, the differences between Moscow and Kiev are now reduced to "a few kilometers." According to him, the Russian troops still have to take control of about 17-18% of the territory of the Donetsk region in order to reach its administrative borders. Ukraine rejects this. She is also seeking to regain control of the Zaporizhia NPP. The parties disagree on the logic of the settlement: Kiev relies on American security guarantees and a cease-fire, while Moscow insists not on partial pauses, but on a broader peace agreement.

Russia is currently pursuing its goals militarily, while Kiev is not making concessions at the negotiating table. At the same time, the West and Ukraine expect to benefit by depleting Moscow, political scientist Dmitry Solonnikov, director of the Institute of Modern State Development, told Izvestia. Therefore, the negotiations remain at an impasse, and the United States acts as the organizer of the process rather than a force capable of pushing Ukraine to accept Russian conditions.

Nevertheless, the United States made targeted attempts to revive the process during the hot phase of the conflict in the Middle East. On March 31, Vladimir Zelensky said he would ask American intermediaries to convey to Moscow a proposal for an Easter moratorium on strikes on energy infrastructure. As a result, the parties subsequently announced a ceasefire for the Easter period. However, as a result, Moscow and Kiev accused each other of numerous violations of the silence regime.

— The United States is the driver of the negotiation process on Ukraine. In fact, no one hides their interests either.: they want to gain maximum control over the situation that will develop after its completion," the expert emphasized.

Solonnikov noted that the United States will return to the settlement only to the extent that Donald Trump retains the political capabilities for this. Impeachment proceedings have already begun against the head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth. According to him, the trend will continue, and similar processes will begin against Trump, so it will be much more difficult for him to negotiate. Moreover, in the fall, the House of Representatives and the Senate are likely to come under the control of the Democrats after the elections.

Exchanges with Ukraine continue

All the prisoner-of-war exchanges between Russia and Ukraine this year took place through the mediation of third parties. If in previous cases Moscow and Kiev reached such agreements with the participation of the United States and the United Arab Emirates, then the last exchange was carried out only through the mediation of the Emirates.

As Shamsail Saraliev, a representative of the parliamentary coordination group on Special Military operations (SVO), explained to Izvestia, the topic of exchanges is actually present at all negotiating platforms where the Ukrainian settlement is being discussed in one way or another.

"In all negotiations, at any venues — be it the United Arab Emirates, Geneva with the participation of the Americans, with the participation of our colleagues from the United Arab Emirates — one of the issues always concerns the exchange," Shamsail Saraliev told Izvestia.

According to him, it is thanks to constant work, as well as previous rounds of negotiations, that exchanges have been taking place regularly lately.

Russia and Ukraine handed over 175 prisoners of war to each other on April 11. Zelensky said that Ukraine had additionally returned seven civilians, most of whom had been in captivity since 2022. The Russian Defense Ministry, in turn, said that the Russian Federation had received seven civilians from the Kursk region. On April 9, Moscow and Kiev exchanged the bodies of the dead. Ukraine received 1,000 military bodies, and 41 dead Russians were transferred to Moscow.